Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[SouthFLTropics]

18Z HWRF Karl loop shows this system organizing in the MDR when it is still pretty far to the east of the Lesser Antilles. Hit the "fwd" button to start the loop.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

If the HWRF happened to be correct then I think we would be looking at a clean cut recurve. There's a pretty big weakness left in the Central Atlantic. If "Matthew" gets strong it will feel the influence and go poleward.

[abajan]

18Z HWRF Karl loop shows this system organizing in the MDR when it is still pretty far to the east of the Lesser Antilles. Hit the "fwd" button to start the loop.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

If the HWRF happened to be correct then I think we would be looking at a clean cut recurve. There's a pretty big weakness left in the Central Atlantic. If "Matthew" gets strong it will feel the influence and go poleward.

Yeah but I doubt it will get strong enough to feel the influence.

[SFLcane]

I think I'll side with wxman57 development waiting till the western Caribbean. GFS seems to be trending with ECMWF so we shall see

[Alyono]

Another option is this develops once it moves into the eastern Caribbean. East Caribbean is usually favorable as we enter October

[gatorcane]

A look at TCHP across the Cariibean. If this system can make it to the NW Caribbean with some good upper-level support, the possibilities are rather concerning:

[Alyono]

Even the eastern Caribbean has very high heat content. Favorable conditions there will also allow for very rapid intensification

[TheStormExpert]

Even the eastern Caribbean has very high heat content. Favorable conditions there will also allow for very rapid intensification

Which would allow an immediate recurve north out of the Eastern Caribbean like what the GFS is portraying, correct?

[Hurricaneman]

Even the eastern Caribbean has very high heat content. Favorable conditions there will also allow for very rapid intensification

Which would allow an immediate recurve north out of the Eastern Caribbean like what the GFS is portraying, correct?

Not if there's a ridge like every other model is showing

[TheStormExpert]

Even the eastern Caribbean has very high heat content. Favorable conditions there will also allow for very rapid intensification

Which would allow an immediate recurve north out of the Eastern Caribbean like what the GFS is portraying, correct?

Not if there's a ridge like every other model is showing

I'm personally still not discounting the GFS solution as we will be in the late September/early October timeframe when troughs start really digging southward throughout the Atlantic.

[Alyono]

Even the eastern Caribbean has very high heat content. Favorable conditions there will also allow for very rapid intensification

Which would allow an immediate recurve north out of the Eastern Caribbean like what the GFS is portraying, correct?

no. The in the eastern Caribbean and its heading rapidly to the west

[Steve]

That's fine and all Storms Expert, but you can't ignore its other signals. It's like this. All major models, including recent runs of the GFS, stall a front in East Texas north/NNE almost to the lakes. After that it gets a push, possibly in part due to former Pacific energy, but I have to look at that later to see what deepens the low in the NC US and moves it on. Behind it is a massive high, and the US suite shows that 10-15 days will be hotter than average in the east. Earlier depictions of the models had the big high spinning off the mid Atlantic and possibly rotating southward or even southeastward. GFS has a known recurve bias, and it gradually shifts systems west over time. I suspect that would be amplified by whatever physics factors are built in toward climatology. So it might be right as run. But it more likely is giving other signals that when interpreted show a different likelihood than the operational run.

I don't really have an opinion, since this hasn't even hit the Atlantic. But one thing I would add is this. If Megi hits the track suggested by the JTWC (who often heavily weighs GFS), no way will this recurve unless it does it early or late. 4 days out, Megi's progged track is smoothing a wnw track slightly westward as it it crosses Southern Taiwan and goes into China just north of Hong Kong. 7-10 days out from the 27th is October 4-7. There is literally a telegraph (possibly the last one) by the WPAC. So I could see a recurve before 65W or maybe after 14-15 days from now, but there will be a point where this system is under the ridge with no way to recurve.

[sma10]

Even the eastern Caribbean has very high heat content. Favorable conditions there will also allow for very rapid intensification

Which would allow an immediate recurve north out of the Eastern Caribbean like what the GFS is portraying, correct?

If the gfs upper air environment in the central Atlantic is correct, just about anything would recurve.

[WeatherEmperor]

We are about to find out. 00z Gfs rolling


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[WeatherEmperor]

120hrs. A little bie weaker than 18z but not by much. Also a touch further south




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[WeatherEmperor]

144hrs. Definitely more south.




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[SouthFLTropics]

Looks to be quite a bit more ridging this run...it's going to come much more west I'm afraid.

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like a significant shift west with this run. Much different 500mb pattern similar to Euro.

[WeatherEmperor]

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[Hurricaneman]

Looks like it's going back to the solution it had in the previous few days back

[WeatherEmperor]

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