"Larry" Screen Shot - 1K Visible & Surface Plo

[wxman57]

Ok, I've resigned myself to having to work most of the weekend now. I've been trying reverse-wishcasting for 24-36 hours and it isn't working. Looks like the disturbance in the NW Caribbean has developed at least a mid-level circulation, but I can't see much evidence of an LLC yet:

http://home.houston.rr.com/wx/larry.gif

Little doubt this will be TD 17 probably tomorrow afternoon, and Larry soon after. BAMM Moves it very little for 5 days after entering the southern Gulf. BAMD has it near Bermuda in 5 days. I can see either possibility as happening, but there are some pretty strong WSW-W winds aloft over the central Gulf. If the storm heads that way it'll probalby be ripperd apart by shear or steered east toward Florida.

My first choice of a trak is NNW-N then NE-ENE across the central to southern Florida Peninsula by Monday. Probably no stronger than a 45-50 kt TS.

[southerngale]

Wow....maybe 3 systems at once!

Isabel....brief lull.....and here we go again.

[cycloneye]

57 a caveat would be landmasses for it to fully get it's act together but if it stays at those warm waters then it may go up more in intensity than the models are saying.

[Anonymous]

With the PNA going through the roof a compromise between the BAMM and BAMD/A98E/LBAR looks likely. Either way we should see a curve towards Florida.

http://independentwx.com/AL902003.png

[GalvestonDuck]

*humming the theme to "Hello, Larry"*

[wxman57]

Here's a new shot:

http://home.houston.rr.com/wx/larry2.gif

Note the thinning of the cirrus canopy has revealed a lower-level spiral (indicated by the red arrow). Can't tell if this is at the surface, but it may be close.

[Aquawind]

Nice Graphics as usual.. Even before the cirrus thinned you could see some kind or rotation and organization. 1km Loop looks better than this AM. I agreee about the surface rotation.

[WeatherEmperor]

I do believe that the hurricane hunters will be sent in tomorrow to investigate if this continues to organize like it is currently doing. Looks like Larry is only a few days away from becoming a reality.

[cycloneye]

It is at mid levels per TWO.

[Steve H.]

System is looking rather pitiful right now IMO. Usually these system in the Caribbean are all convection and no surface circulation. THis had plenty of convection and now its dissipated leaving the circulation bare. Wondering if its the end for this disturbance. :o

[wxman57]

Are we looking at the same system? I don't think it's ever looked better than it does now. Banding is becoming increasingly evident, pressures are very low in the region, and wind shear isn't a problem. That, combined with the fact that I'd like to NOT work this weekend means it's a shoe-in for becoming TD 17 tomorrow afternoon once recon finds an LLC.

[dixiebreeze]

57 a caveat would be landmasses for it to fully get it's act together but if it stays at those warm waters then it may go up more in intensity than the models are saying.

I have to agree with that Luis.

[Stormsfury]

Are we looking at the same system? I don't think it's ever looked better than it does now. Banding is becoming increasingly evident, pressures are very low in the region, and wind shear isn't a problem. That, combined with the fact that I'd like to NOT work this weekend means it's a shoe-in for becoming TD 17 tomorrow afternoon once recon finds an LLC.

LOL

It sucks that I had to work so long, for I would have liked to seen a loop of that. The structure resembles a gravity wave pattern.

SF

[Toni - 574]

System is looking rather pitiful right now IMO. Usually these system in the Caribbean are all convection and no surface circulation. THis had plenty of convection and now its dissipated leaving the circulation bare. Wondering if its the end for this disturbance. :o

JMO, Steve but the W. Caib. disturbance looks like it has grown in size, but the deeper convection is what looks to be on the decrease tonight. Remember most of our systems this season seems to decrease around this time of the day. Will be interested to see what it looks like on Vis. tomorrow and if we indeed have a developing system on our hands.

[Steve H.]

But there is no convection near the "center". A developing system shouldn't show diurnal type convection when there's a surface circulation. What I'm saying is that water temps are high, atmosphere is moist, and upper level winds are light; we have a mid - surface level circulation with lowering pressures, but no convection....doesn't make sense. Believe me, I've been honking all week about the Yucatan channel, but something just ain't right about this disturbance. I'm puzzled. :o

[garyftl]

Late September/October western caribbean systems always take long to develop but they move very slowly giving them time for development before entering the gulf where they are usually swept quickly towards the east.

[wxman57]

But there is no convection near the "center". A developing system shouldn't show diurnal type convection when there's a surface circulation. What I'm saying is that water temps are high, atmosphere is moist, and upper level winds are light; we have a mid - surface level circulation with lowering pressures, but no convection....doesn't make sense. Believe me, I've been honking all week about the Yucatan channel, but something just ain't right about this disturbance. I'm puzzled. :o

Right, Steve. Convection near the center would be a prerequisite for development. But this system is still in its early stages of development. The mid to lower-level circulation isn't well-established, and convection continues to fluctuate. But systems in this region can spin-up quickly, and I think that the recon will find an LLC by 21Z tomorrow.

But, if not, then I don't have to work tomorrow!

[Steve H.]

Well then you can kick back and watch some college football I know what you're saying wxman57, just the fact that this doesn't have a lot of time to develop maybe will keep it open like the models are suggesting. But if you get a spark, there seems to be a lot of gasoline in that area. Cheers!!

[Toni - 574]

LOL Steve!!

[BEER980]

Steve H. nothing is normal about the storms this season. Just business as usual in 2003.