Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[PTrackerLA]

Gulp

[SeGaBob]

Well that's the safest place to be that far out.

[SouthFLTropics]

Good thing it's out there in Fantasyland...but it is concerning that all the models are locking in on a similar solution. A significant cyclone in the Western Caribbean in 7-10 days.

[WeatherEmperor]

Who is staying up for the Euro??


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[PTrackerLA]

Good thing it's out there in Fantasyland...but it is concerning that all the models are locking in on a similar solution. A significant cyclone in the Western Caribbean in 7-10 days.

Yep mostly concerned about a hurricane potentially tapping the western Caribbean. Could be a very bad day for someone on the GOM after that. Plenty of time to watch for now.

[sma10]

Definitely interested in tonight's Euro, specifically its speed. You'll notice that the Euro, gfs and UK now seem to agree on basic track, but gfs is a bit faster. This is always key in where the system connects with trough. If Euro is still a bit slower it would likely not make it as far west as La/TX border. Of course, we are going to get only 240hrs from it, so it will no doubt leave us with some mystery.

[beoumont]

This evening's GFS must have Carla on its mind:

[USTropics]

Big shift in the 00z ensembles as well. They've been gradually shifting westward over the past few runs, this run I don't see any recurves through the Caribbean from the 20 members.

[USTropics]

Ensembles still diverging in the long range. Essentially the entire GOM, Florida, and EC should be keeping a careful eye on this. We'll have to see what the ECMWF shows, but there is building concern of a likely strong storm cruising through the Caribbean next weekend:

[bamajammer4eva]

The 00z positions of 39L in 240 Hrs Euro, GFS, Canadian



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[USTropics]

That's now three straight runs for the ECMWF in the same general vicinity at 240 hours. This is in remarkable agreement now with the other models per the animated image above. We'll have to wait for the graphical output of the UKMET, but the text output picks this up as it approaches the Leewards.

Code: Select all

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 13.0N  55.5W

 VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 28.09.2016  13.0N  55.5W     WEAK
 00UTC 29.09.2016  13.4N  58.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

[USTropics]

00z UKMET run, it has a suspect dive to SW from 144 hours to 168 hours, but just off the coast of SA with development:

[abajan]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karl, located several hundred miles south of Bermuda, and on
Tropical Storm Lisa, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic.

1. A tropical wave near the west coast of Africa is expected to move
rapidly westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean at 20 to
25 mph for the next several days. Environmental conditions could
be conducive for some gradual development while the system
approaches the Lesser Antilles early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Avila


The initial position (the x) has barely moved since the system first appeared on the map.

[USTropics]

06z GFS running, through 102 hours it's stronger then the past 2 runs so far (pretty close to yesterday's 12z):

[USTropics]

Through 162 hours, GFS really starting to bomb P39L out now, down to 960mb at the surface. By far this is the strongest GFS run to date (20mb lower than the 00z run at same time frame):

[USTropics]

06z run is north of the 00z run so far as well. Showing a major hurricane aiming for Jamaica, this is going to be very close:

[USTropics]

Landfall in Jamaica at 192 hours:

[USTropics]

Off the coast of Jamaica and strengthening once again (938mb at 216 hours):

[drezee]

Looks like that Ivan Frederic track over the tip of Cuba

[gatorcane]

Catastrophic if it verifies, 935mb