Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[ronjon]

Another Hermine on steroids! Fortunately 300 hrs out but going to be watching this one intensely as it has model support. The only nagging issue is during some seasons, tropical cyclones like to strike the same areas.

[drezee]

Same landfall as Hermine...Cedar Key would be 25ft+ storms surge...Tampa Bay would still get 12+....yuck

[USTropics]

Catastrophic if it verifies, 935mb

http://s17.postimg.org/xlgrqst0f/gfs_pr ... atl_46.png

Yea those are truncated values too, probably much lower then that given the pressure gradient. Good thing we're still talking 300+ hours out, but the consistency between each run (and each model even) for a major hurricane is definitely concerning.

My direct takeaway from this run, the Leewards could get smacked by a pretty strong storm now:

[drezee]

Hey Suddath, there would not be a pole high enough or standing near the coast to mount your camera...

[gatorcane]

Again big differences between the two principle models on the 500 mb pattern to the north of the cyclone. The GFS has a pretty strong ridge over the Bahamas and Florida while the Euro does not. So the GFS brings would bring this further west than the Euro. The GFS is also faster than the Euro.

[gatorcane]

06z GFS ensembles running now coming in more bullish for the Lesser Antilles. I think NHC raises development chances in the 8amest outlook

[gatorcane]

Remarkable consensus now with the GFS ensembles at 228 hours

[abajan]

Catastrophic if it verifies, 935mb

http://s17.postimg.org/xlgrqst0f/gfs_pr ... atl_46.png

Yea those are truncated values too, probably much lower then that given the pressure gradient. Good thing we're still talking 300+ hours out, but the consistency between each run (and each model even) for a major hurricane is definitely concerning.

My direct takeaway from this run, the Leewards could get smacked by a pretty strong storm now:

http://i.imgur.com/37B4oDl.png

Those are the Windward Islands, not the Leewards. But yes, it's certainly a possibility that we could get hit by a strong storm. However, due to the high speed at which it's currently forecast to traverse the Atlantic, I doubt it will be more intense than a weak to moderate tropical storm.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Has the ensembles ever verified over 200 hrs

[SFLcane]

This is still longs way out...this could easily crash into CA or up into Florida. We had this model consensus with hermine only to drop development.

[SFLcane]

Nhc 8am..This is your culprit moving 20-25mph likely will not develop till western Caribbean.

[stormlover2013]

We have had Florida, fish, Texas, back to Florida lol just pay attention to around 140 hours after that it's a crap shoot but then again nothing has developed

[USTropics]

Catastrophic if it verifies, 935mb

http://s17.postimg.org/xlgrqst0f/gfs_pr ... atl_46.png

Yea those are truncated values too, probably much lower then that given the pressure gradient. Good thing we're still talking 300+ hours out, but the consistency between each run (and each model even) for a major hurricane is definitely concerning.

My direct takeaway from this run, the Leewards could get smacked by a pretty strong storm now:

http://i.imgur.com/37B4oDl.png

Those are the Windward Islands, not the Leewards. But yes, it's certainly a possibility that we could get hit by a strong storm. However, due to the high speed at which it's currently forecast to traverse the Atlantic, I doubt it will be more intense than a weak to moderate tropical storm.

I'm just going to go with Lesser Antilles from now on

[abajan]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karl, located a few hundred miles south of Bermuda, and on
Tropical Storm Lisa, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic.

1. A tropical wave located about 350 miles southeast of the Cabo Verde
Islands is expected to move rapidly westward across the tropical
Atlantic Ocean at 20 to 25 mph for the next several days.
Environmental conditions could be conducive for some gradual
development while the system approaches the Lesser Antilles next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Brennan

[Alyono]

Nhc 8am..This is your culprit moving 20-25mph likely will not develop till western Caribbean.

and they may be wrong. Systems can develop moving 25 mph if all levels of the atmosphere have winds moving that speed. No shear then

[RL3AO]

Well the models are giving us quite a signal. Seems to have a little more universal support than 92L did.

[Blown Away]

Wow, GFS/Euro consistently showing a strong system run after run and we have not seen that all season or seems like years. We are use to model excitement when the low goes from 1007mb to 1003mb.

If upper level winds are favorable when 39L moves over those boiling NW Caribbean waters, wow, it could be a very dangerous storm. The consistency of models is eye opening...

[LarryWx]

Nhc 8am..This is your culprit moving 20-25mph likely will not develop till western Caribbean.

This is quite the unusually fast movement for so late in September! This rapid movement is what is scarey for the Conus because this means the likelihood of TC formation not until west of 50W and thus much less chance of a recurve well east of the Conus.

[RL3AO]

Looks like the mid-level ridge axis travels westward with the wave. So yes the wave is moving 20 to 25 kt, but the 850, 700, and 500 mb winds are all from the east at 20 to 25 mph. This is at least limiting mid-level shear. Will be one to watch for sure.

[pgoss11]

While the models are showing some consistency in showing a storm in the Caribbean, I also have to take a step back and remind myself at just how underperforming the models have been this year. If this storm does come to fruition, someone could have a dangerous storm on their hands in he next week.