Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[CourierPR]

Nhc 8am..This is your culprit moving 20-25mph likely will not develop till western Caribbean.

This is quite the unusually fast movement for so late in September! This rapid movement is what is scary for the Conus because this means the likelihood of TC formation not until west of 50W and thus much less chance of a recurve well east of the Conus.

Bastardi sees this coming farther west, as well. He pointed out in his video today the in-close development of Hermine and Julia as examples of why the US needs to watch 39L.

[Blown Away]

JB Tweeting about possible W Caribbean/GOM threat...

[stormlover2013]

yeah I saw joes video, I was looking up hurricanes that hit LA and Texas and October and it does happen......its rare but it does happen......this has to develop first though and then who knows where it goes

[tolakram]

GFS trend

[Bones2016]

My leg is getting swollen and when it does Florida is most likely going to get hot. I'm 6 for 7.

[Blown Away]

yeah I saw joes video, I was looking up hurricanes that hit LA and Texas and October and it does happen......its rare but it does happen......this has to develop first though and then who knows where it goes

My 39L Prediction In The Order Of Likelihood To Happen:
1. Storm Impact between Pensacola to E Cuba.
2. Storm impact W into Central America.
3. Not develop.

[stormlover2013]

well there better be a strong front or strong trough to push it that way quickly....this thing looks like its going to be really south....Lili is a pretty good good one to go by https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Lili and it could be little bit more south than lili

[Steve]

yeah I saw joes video, I was looking up hurricanes that hit LA and Texas and October and it does happen......its rare but it does happen......this has to develop first though and then who knows where it goes

My 39L Prediction In The Order Of Likelihood To Happen:
1. Storm Impact between Pensacola to E Cuba.
2. Storm impact W into Central America.
3. Not develop.

Interesting. But it's kind of early with this not even having hit the Atlantic yet. I have zero idea if it's going to develop or not, but I'd suspect you have probably a reasonably fair shot at a Yucatan or Central/Western Gulf hit depending on timing if it did develop. That's not because I live here by the way, and east of here was my early target zone for the season.

Megi is now 5 days from second landfall progged to be around Xiamen which is roughly 290 miles up the coast from Hong Kong. That extends the likely inability of Pouch 39 to recurve. It never gets super strong (Cat 2ish), but you can see how the track moves. That's big time ridging in the Western Atlantic in the 12-15 day range which is probably about the timeframe of threat with a western push at 20-25. It well could be that this is far into the Caribbean or G.A. by next weekend which is obviously very fast for this time of year. 12-15 days out is Wednesday-Friday a week out (or October 5/6/7/8). Expect major ridging across the SE US and into the SW Atlantic. It's clear as day. I'm not saying that there won't be an opportunity for a recurve at any point along the way. But this is major league suggestive of it almost being an impossibility to head in any direction without a Westerly component. We'll see in time. Maybe a quick shortwave could still sneak through, but the overall pattern is showing to argue for large scale high pressure in the Eastern US.

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/R ... wp2016.gif

[Gustywind]

21 pages for a Pouch Is that a record? Imagine if this thing could be only an Invest?

[abajan]

21 pages for a Pouch Is that a record? Imagine if this thing could be only an Invest?

I'm guessing it will be INVEST 97L by the end of the day.

[Emmett_Brown]

I agree that a W track into the W gulf is totally still possible (assuming we even get a storm to form). It is still late September, so it is not that late, and if the pattern allows, it can happen. Last week Joe B was pointing out that summer will likely continue for a few more weeks, with a stubborn ridge over the East. On the other hand, fronts are going to be more frequent now, and even a shallow trough can send a strong hurricane northward.

[gatorcane]

Simulated IR from 00Z GFS run:

[stormlover2013]

agree emmett, also the front that is coming through Texas this weekend was showing to be really strong 4 days ago and now it has fizzled alot with the newest models runs...........you have 3 weeks left I feel like of a LA/Texas hit but if this was mid October no doubt I wouldn't even be worried about it

[toad strangler]

My leg is getting swollen and when it does Florida is most likely going to get hot. I'm 6 for 7.

lol

[pgoss11]

I agree that a W track into the W gulf is totally still possible (assuming we even get a storm to form). It is still late September, so it is not that late, and if the pattern allows, it can happen. Last week Joe B was pointing out that summer will likely continue for a few more weeks, with a stubborn ridge over the East. On the other hand, fronts are going to be more frequent now, and even a shallow trough can send a strong hurricane northward.

I have to agree with this. I feel the more likely possibility is a central or eastern GOM hit but just my opinion. The strong ridge that will be developing in the Atlantic should steer this TC into the Caribbean so it seems we might have a viable threat to some land mass in the next week to ten days.

[stormlover2013]

yeah no doubt pgoss, one that that has me watching is..it will be so far south it looks like, so it keeps everyone from texas to the east coast to pay attention

[Steve]

Simulated IR from 00Z GFS run:

It's strange what GFS 06Z does with this eventually. It's probably not strange for this year, but it deepens and lifts up toward Apalachicola on a North heading to bring it up and out only to get squashed from the north, staggers for 6-12 hours and then cuts straight ENE and exits off the GA Coast. This is pretty unlikely, but what happens is the GFS is faster than the second ridge and actually forms a spin off the SC Coast a few days in advance that provides the alleyway. This is fantasy stuff based on the pattern, but I guess if it was faster than 12 days to landfall (which would be fairly difficult considering it's not even in the Atlantic yet), it could make sense. But it's going to have to stay at the 500-600 mile a day speed to pull that off.

[Gustywind]

21 pages for a Pouch Is that a record? Imagine if this thing could be only an Invest?

I'm guessing it will be INVEST 97L by the end of the day.

Ohoh let's wait and see should it verifies first. Anyway, as we're in September we should not let our guard down Abajan. We should have more on this feature during the next couple of days.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/Adriansweather/status/779331164905627649

[Emmett_Brown]

If you look on the current satellite pick, it doesn't look like much... mostly a big "poof". But, as the models show, development, if any, wont happen until later. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/avn-l.jpg