Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/Adriansweather/status/779331164905627649

Is it already Invest 97L?

[centuryv58]

 https://twitter.com/Adriansweather/status/779331164905627649

Is it already Invest 97L?

If its not, it should be, imo.

[SFLcane]

TheStormExpert.. Nope but its just a matter of time.

[TheStormExpert]

TheStormExpert.. Nope but its just a matter of time.

Oh lol! I thought it might have been just recently designated Invest 97L due to seeing the hashtag.

[SFLcane]

Keep in mind models this year have been beyond horrible so we shall see.

[TheStormExpert]

Keep in mind models this year have been beyond horrible so we shall see.

Couldn't agree more!

That's why I am still VERY SKEPTICAL that anything more than a weak sheared Tropical Cyclone will come from this at most at the moment.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Keep in mind models this year have been beyond horrible so we shall see.

With that said this is 1st time they have been really pro development on a consistent basis. Track endgame is a different story.

[Blown Away]

Keep in mind models this year have been beyond horrible so we shall see.

I agree and it's been hard to trust the modeling for years, but when is the last time we have seen the GFS/Euro day after day and run after run show a significant storm... It's not like most past storms when the development is a fine line between a TD and open wave... This time it's blowing 39L up each and every time...

[PTrackerLA]

Keep in mind models this year have been beyond horrible so we shall see.

I agree and it's been hard to trust the modeling for years, but when is the last time we have seen the GFS/Euro day after day and run after run show a significant storm... It's not like most past storms when the development is a fine line between a TD and open wave... This time it's blowing 39L up each and every time...

A few weeks ago, 92L ....

[SFLcane]

Keep in mind models this year have been beyond horrible so we shall see.

I agree and it's been hard to trust the modeling for years, but when is the last time we have seen the GFS/Euro day after day and run after run show a significant storm... It's not like most past storms when the development is a fine line between a TD and open wave... This time it's blowing 39L up each and every time...

How many times did the EURO and GFS blow up Hermine into a hurricane before Florida? Yea we know how that went.

[TheStormExpert]

Keep in mind models this year have been beyond horrible so we shall see.

I agree and it's been hard to trust the modeling for years, but when is the last time we have seen the GFS/Euro day after day and run after run show a significant storm... It's not like most past storms when the development is a fine line between a TD and open wave... This time it's blowing 39L up each and every time...

How many times did the EURO and GFS blow up Hermine into a hurricane before Florida? Yea we know how that went.

Not too mention the Euro is only showing a weak 987mb hurricane in the SW Caribbean @240hrs. on this morning's 00z run and yesterday afternoon's 12z run where as the GFS continues to bomb this out like we are in 2005 or something.

[terstorm1012]

Is this the wave all of WxTwitter is calling 97L? I came here and was looking.

[CourierPR]

I would be cautious using that phrase "a weak hurricane" because any hurricane can cause lots of damage either by water or by wind.

[blp]

Take a look at the site below and press play. Upward motion including a Kelvin wave is going to be returning to the Atlantic around the time this wave moves into the Caribbean. This could be another reason why the models start ramping this up in the W. Caribbean other than it being a climo favorable time of the year..

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/maps/waves/westHem_analyses.html

[Bocadude85]

I agree and it's been hard to trust the modeling for years, but when is the last time we have seen the GFS/Euro day after day and run after run show a significant storm... It's not like most past storms when the development is a fine line between a TD and open wave... This time it's blowing 39L up each and every time...

How many times did the EURO and GFS blow up Hermine into a hurricane before Florida? Yea we know how that went.

Not too mention the Euro is only showing a weak 987mb hurricane in the SW Caribbean @240hrs. on this morning's 00z run and yesterday afternoon's 12z run where as the GFS continues to bomb this out like we are in 2005 or something.

Thats a bit of a oxymoron wouldn't you say?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z GFS is running.

[Steve]

I would be cautious using that phrase "a weak hurricane" because any hurricane can cause lots of damage either by water or by wind.

No doubt. A 987mb storm in the SW Caribbean at that resolution level would be understated. The only thing I'd be almost sure of is that this isn't intensifying at final Gulf landfall if there is one. But you'd think that's a 940/950 type system obviously depending on a myriad of factors. Mitch which was deteriorating at landfall, probably was in that 980s range as it crept SSW before hooking back. So 987 can kill 20,000+ people down there for sure.

[PTrackerLA]

Out to 144hrs on 12z GFS 977mb, a little further south than 06z but otherwise very consistent so far

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I think we can pause this run at 120 hours given the high level of uncertainty, but it does illustrate the possibility of an intensifying tropical storm nearing the Caribbean by Tuesday. Anyways, the 12z GFS strikes me as a tad overdone. I wouldn't be surprised if this system, if it develops at all, waits until it reaches the Western Caribbean before any significant development.

[Steve]

That little spin off the SC Coast is still there in this run at 186 (7.75 days from 7am this morning or Saturday at 1:00am Central).