Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[CourierPR]

That little spin off the SC Coast is still there in this run at 186 (7.75 days from 7am this morning or Saturday at 1:00am Central).

Yes, and if that were to verify with the system ramping up, would there be a more NW component to its path?

[pgoss11]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=401

Let's all hope this is overdone.

[PTrackerLA]

Gulf bound for sure again. 3 in a row for the GFS now.

[bohaiboy]

Wow that reads 928 mb in Caribbean

[Caneman12]

That little spin off the SC Coast is still there in this run at 186 (7.75 days from 7am this morning or Saturday at 1:00am Central).

Yes, and if that were to verify with the system ramping up, would there be a more NW component to its path?

Well the way the models have this strong high in place it would go slightly NW maybe into texas louisiana or mexico

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Gulf bound for sure again. 3 in a row for the GFS now.

A little further south and weaker before it enters the Caribbean this time around, but that's probably where this run will end up taking this one again.

Highly interested to see what the 12z ECMWF is going to show.

[CourierPR]

Gulf bound for sure again. 3 in a row for the GFS now.

I see a 933 millibar storm north of Hispaniola on the 10/2 frame.

[Blown Away]

Keep in mind models this year have been beyond horrible so we shall see.

I agree and it's been hard to trust the modeling for years, but when is the last time we have seen the GFS/Euro day after day and run after run show a significant storm... It's not like most past storms when the development is a fine line between a TD and open wave... This time it's blowing 39L up each and every time...

How many times did the EURO and GFS blow up Hermine into a hurricane before Florida? Yea we know how that went.

Models blew up Hermine a few times, but overwhelmingly models argued over a TD or open wave and we all got fired up when the modeled low dropped from 1013 mb to 1007 mb... Hermine ended up being a significant cane, just ask Tallahassee folks... 39l is being blown up run after run, completely different from what we are use to...

[Hurricaneman]

Gulf bound for sure again. 3 in a row for the GFS now.

I see a 933 millibar storm north of Hispaniola on the 10/2 frame.

That must be yesterdays run

[SFLcane]

Might head into CA....

[Steve]

That little spin off the SC Coast is still there in this run at 186 (7.75 days from 7am this morning or Saturday at 1:00am Central).

Yes, and if that were to verify with the system ramping up, would there be a more NW component to its path?

I don't know. I ran the GFS so far at 500mb, and there is the other high sort of coming into the SE Canada at the end of the current output (216 hours). No way that's hooking out though it does slightly swing a little more N in the WNW trajectory to run the Yucatan Channel. The high looks strangely like the ones we saw coming off the mid-Atlantic in 2005 though much farther north and more "narrowly rectangular n/s" than closer to "square" as they were that year. There is secondary ridging north of the system as a shortwave that only gets as far south as Massachusetts comes off between the first and second blocking ridges.

[AutoPenalti]

Well, at least no SW FL threat. But that could change so far out.

[PTrackerLA]

240 hrs 904mb!!!!...

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like it will probably make a landfall on the Yucatan on this run as a monster...

[Steve]

That's 26.99mb at 914. That's got to be top 2 or 3 strongest October storms ever. Damn. Somebody's going to pay in this scenario. Because even if weakening, the size and potential surge it will have residual from peak will be crazy. Gonna be some nervous people around by next weekend if anything remotely like this happens.

[cajungal]

Reminding me of Lili and Opal. 2 October hurricanes that come to mind.

[Alyono]

MU making a run at the most intense ever recorded

Canadian and UKMET have also trended stronger

[CourierPR]

Well, at least so SW FL threat. But that could change so fat out.

I think it is extremely premature for anyone to specify a threatened land area or to declare an area safe from any impacts.

[TheStormExpert]

12z GFS @240hrs. with a 904mb monster Cat.5 hurricane in the NW Caribbean. Yeah the GFS is on drugs!

[pgoss11]

That's 26.99mb at 914. That's got to be top 2 or 3 strongest October storms ever. Damn. Somebody's going to pay in this scenario. Because even if weakening, the size and potential surge it will have residual from peak will be crazy. Gonna be some nervous people around by next weekend if anything remotely like this happens.

Horrifying scenario if this happens.