Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[Macrocane]

Mathhew is the replacement of Mitch, similar intensity and similar position with a different track though.
Edit: Of course, we don't know if it is really going to be Matthew.

[Steve]

This would have to be near the peak of the system except for whatever additional pump it could potentially get from Loop Current. But this is nearly Annular. Damn. You don't see this every day on the simulated radar

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=430

[Hurricaneman]

12z GFS @240hrs. with a 904mb monster Cat.5 hurricane in the NW Caribbean. Yeah the GFS is on drugs!

lets hope so

[Alyono]

looks like it is burying itself into Mexico

[Hurricaneman]

I personally cant buy any solution outside of 5 days but thats why we watch

[Steve]

looks like it is burying itself into Mexico

Yeah, it crosses the Yucatan and heads into the Southern BOC or skirts that northern Gulf Coast of Mexico down there. Almost looks like GFS wants to take the energy over to the Pacific before recurving. That would be something.

Edit: Yucatan Dance before emerging into the BOC heading WNW/NW. Hmmm...

[PTrackerLA]

In the BOC at 336 hours after a devastating Mexico landfall...

[sma10]

That's 26.99mb at 914. That's got to be top 2 or 3 strongest October storms ever. Damn. Somebody's going to pay in this scenario. Because even if weakening, the size and potential surge it will have residual from peak will be crazy. Gonna be some nervous people around by next weekend if anything remotely like this happens.

I think the deepest in Atlantic history was Wilma, a mid-October storm, no? Something like 882mb? In exactly that same area.

[blp]

12z GFS @240hrs. with a 904mb monster Cat.5 hurricane in the NW Caribbean. Yeah the GFS is on drugs!

[g]http://i67.tinypic.com/14wr2b7.jpg[/img]

That part of the basin could support that intensity. Not saying it will but if it happens that would be the place to see it.

Also, there will be favorable upward motion in that área which could add thus scenario

[tolakram]

I do not trust the GFS at all past 192 hours but will include the end of the run here. No idea what the upper air pattern will be by then but it does appear something will be near the islands in 120 hours or thereabouts.

[PTrackerLA]

12z CMC

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I do not trust the GFS at all past 192 hours but will include the end of the run here. No idea what the upper air pattern will be by then but it does appear something will be near the islands in 120 hours or thereabouts.

I don't trust it all that much beyond 96 hours, to be perfectly honest.

[sma10]

Ok so, in order, the last 4 GFS runs and it's corresponding hurricane landfall sites:

18Z 9/22: Dominican Republic
00Z 9/23: TX/LA border
06Z 9/23: Apalachicola, FL
12Z 9/23: Mexico/Belize border Yucatan

Well, that just about covers it! So now we know the safe sights.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Anyone know what the 00z UKMET showed?

[Steve]

That's 26.99mb at 914. That's got to be top 2 or 3 strongest October storms ever. Damn. Somebody's going to pay in this scenario. Because even if weakening, the size and potential surge it will have residual from peak will be crazy. Gonna be some nervous people around by next weekend if anything remotely like this happens.

I think the deepest in Atlantic history was Wilma, a mid-October storm, no? Something like 882mb? In exactly that same area.

Yeah. Wilma was 882. I'm not sure on Caribbean in October behind her, but there were some beasts including Mitch at its peak.

[blp]

We need the Euro to confirm the upper pattern. Remember just yesterday the GFS was out to lunch with the two bowling ball lows and then recurve.

[toad strangler]

Ok so, in order, the last 4 GFS runs and it's corresponding hurricane landfall sites:

18Z 9/22: Dominican Republic
00Z 9/23: TX/LA border
06Z 9/23: Apalachicola, FL
12Z 9/23: Mexico/Belize border Yucatan

Well, that just about covers it! So now we know the safe sights.

Windhield wiper. Expect much more in the near term.

[slamdaddy]

Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential for Carib: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/ca.html

Very deep warm water.

[Steve]

I do not trust the GFS at all past 192 hours but will include the end of the run here. No idea what the upper air pattern will be by then but it does appear something will be near the islands in 120 hours or thereabouts.

What's interesting is there is a trough split at 200mb that precedes Pouch 39's approach to the Western Caribbean. Pattern reverses and the deep intensification happens. If this is the case, people will be saying "look at that giant upper low in the Gulf and the shear it's causing." They will need to think again. This is exactly one of the scenarios that shows why you need Upper Lows sometimes to get strong development. Eventually people who hem and haw about ULL's will figure that out.

Run this:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=430

[PTrackerLA]

It will be interesting to see the Euro bring in the timeframe some, it's a solid day or so behind the 12z GFS and CMC on their 240 hour positions where the 00z Euro had the system much further SE in the Caribbean.