Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[tarheelprogrammer]

I am not buying into the GFS and its steering pattern. I believe the high will not be as strong and somewhere from Louisiana to Florida will be where the eventual landfall is. This is possibly going to be a big and powerful storm. If the GFS is right whoever gets it will wish it had chose somewhere else instead. Plenty of watching and waiting ahead.

[sma10]

That's 26.99mb at 914. That's got to be top 2 or 3 strongest October storms ever. Damn. Somebody's going to pay in this scenario. Because even if weakening, the size and potential surge it will have residual from peak will be crazy. Gonna be some nervous people around by next weekend if anything remotely like this happens.

I think the deepest in Atlantic history was Wilma, a mid-October storm, no? Something like 882mb? In exactly that same area.

Yeah. Wilma was 882. I'm not sure on Caribbean in October behind her, but there were some beasts including Mitch at its peak.

Yes, absolutely, Mitch was awful - I want to say his peak was something like 903 or 905.
Without a doubt the area this seems to be heading is the seeding ground for these monsters. In fact, the two strongest of all time that I am aware of (Wilma and Gilbert) both hit the Yucatan. Gilbert plowed thru and Wilma just sort of hovered there before eventually going North and East.

[Steve]

Hey tolakram,

You can see more of the upper air in the 500mb in the 48 hour linear forecast track. Watch the trough split and retrograde across the Gulf just prior to the intensification and eventual landfall toward +/- Orange, TX/Cameron, LA (which was earlier) and now it being somewhere in the BOC. It's definitely an upper trough because you can follow the split at 200mb and 500mb very easily.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=538

[stormlover2013]

This is what bastardi been saying he said the pattern he feels supports thus type of pattern we shall see

[OntarioEggplant]

Odds are it's going to go somewhere between North Carolina and Nicaragua.

[sma10]

I am not buying into the GFS and its steering pattern. I believe the high will not be as strong and somewhere from Louisiana to Florida will be where the eventual landfall is. This is possibly going to be a big and powerful storm. If the GFS is right whoever gets it will wish it had chose somewhere else instead. Plenty of watching and waiting ahead.

You make a very good point, as the 12Z track looks fairly reasonable for Jul/Aug/Sep, according to climatology. In fact, a decent analog to the 12Z track is Gilbert '88.

I'm not saying "can't happen", but it would just be a little unusual for a system to traverse the entire Caribbean into the Yucatan in early October. But then you have to ask: how much different is mid-September (Gilbert) to early October (97L)? Not much really.

[sma10]

Odds are it's going to go somewhere between North Carolina and Nicaragua.

Yes.
Maybe.

[tarheelprogrammer]

I am not buying into the GFS and its steering pattern. I believe the high will not be as strong and somewhere from Louisiana to Florida will be where the eventual landfall is. This is possibly going to be a big and powerful storm. If the GFS is right whoever gets it will wish it had chose somewhere else instead. Plenty of watching and waiting ahead.

You make a very good point, as the 12Z track looks fairly reasonable for Jul/Aug/Sep, according to climatology. In fact, a decent analog to the 12Z track is Gilbert '88.

I'm not saying "can't happen", but it would just be a little unusual for a system to traverse the entire Caribbean into the Yucatan in early October. But then you have to ask: how much different is mid-September (Gilbert) to early October (97L)? Not much really.

Oh yeah nothing is impossible in the tropics and there are exceptions to every rule. If future 97L? gets as strong as the models show people along the Gulf of Mexico will be sweating this one.

[centuryv58]

Odds are it's going to go somewhere between North Carolina and Nicaragua.

Sounds like a safe bet to me.

[blp]

The potential is there. Take a look at this comparison.

Now:


Wilma 2005

[Florida1118]

Still no change despite the model support, which I find interesting.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karl, located south of Bermuda, and on Tropical Storm Lisa,
located over the eastern tropical Atlantic.

A tropical wave located southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is
expected to move rapidly westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean
at 20 to 25 mph for the next several days. Environmental conditions
could be conducive for some gradual development while the system
approaches the Lesser Antilles next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[stormreader]

I do not trust the GFS at all past 192 hours but will include the end of the run here. No idea what the upper air pattern will be by then but it does appear something will be near the islands in 120 hours or thereabouts.

And that is all anyone can reasonably say at this point. Specifics about landfall in Mexico or comparing it in intensity with Mitch and Wilma can wait for a later day.

[Medtronic15]

2pm

[OntarioEggplant]

Still no change despite the model support, which I find interesting.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karl, located south of Bermuda, and on Tropical Storm Lisa,
located over the eastern tropical Atlantic.

A tropical wave located southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is
expected to move rapidly westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean
at 20 to 25 mph for the next several days. Environmental conditions
could be conducive for some gradual development while the system
approaches the Lesser Antilles next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

The outlook only goes out 5 days and the Euro is slower at developing

[Steve]

I do not trust the GFS at all past 192 hours but will include the end of the run here. No idea what the upper air pattern will be by then but it does appear something will be near the islands in 120 hours or thereabouts.

And that is all anyone can reasonably say at this point. Specifics about landfall in Mexico or comparing it in intensity with Mitch and Wilma can wait for a later day.

Obviously. But this was a model run that brings in those comparisons. Fantasy or not, it's a legitimate point of discussion provided it stays academic and not panic driven.

[Florida1118]

Still no change despite the model support, which I find interesting.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karl, located south of Bermuda, and on Tropical Storm Lisa,
located over the eastern tropical Atlantic.

A tropical wave located southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is
expected to move rapidly westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean
at 20 to 25 mph for the next several days. Environmental conditions
could be conducive for some gradual development while the system
approaches the Lesser Antilles next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

The outlook only goes out 5 days and the Euro is slower at developing

Yes, and the GFS develops this well within that time frame. I expected the 48 hours to remain the same, I just find it interesting they are seemingly apprehensive about raising the 5 day probabilities, despite some depictions that this will develop within 5 days.

[TheStormExpert]

The GFS is overly-bullish that is why they are not biting yet.

[stormreader]

One point that is perhaps not so reasonable is that the time frame after the eqinox (Sept 22) can sometimes seem like a separate season as far as tropical development. Especially in the Carribean. Conditions may have been hostile all season long, but after the equinox the chances for major tropical development can turn around sharply. Always had a "feeling" about this season. No El Niño---SST's been high, but ULL's everywhere (think that's been worse than the dry air). Those negative factors may be subject to change in the Carribean after the Equinox.

[gatorcane]

Majority of the GFS ensembles are not into the Yucatan. By the way, that is a very strong signal from the ensembles so far out.

[TheStormExpert]

Majority of the GFS ensembles are not into the Yucatan

At the moment the GFS is spitting out all the different types of solutions! From OTS to burying it into CA.