Texas Winter 2016-2017

[vbhoutex]

Saw a local OCM who is pretty accurate most of the time with 70s for highs next week in Houston!! I DON'T THINK SO!!! I DO HOPE THOUGH!!! LOL!!!

[JDawg512]

The NWS just put out their winter forecast. Warm and dry for Texas... Can someone give us hope???

Firsthand weather is forecasting completely opposite of the NWS. They seem to actually be pretty accurate on their winter forecasts. I guess all we can do it wait and see what verifies.

Seems like it would be very difficult to make a good long range forecast for this winter from what I've been reading. Given this past winter was pretty dry and warm, especially in Jan and Febuary, it would suck if we saw a repeat. Personally I wouldn't put any bet on the ultimate outcome.

[Yukon Cornelius]

The NWS just put out their winter forecast. Warm and dry for Texas... Can someone give us hope???

Firsthand weather is forecasting completely opposite of the NWS. They seem to actually be pretty accurate on their winter forecasts. I guess all we can do it wait and see what verifies.

Seems like it would be very difficult to make a good long range forecast for this winter from what I've been reading. Given this past winter was pretty dry and warm, especially in Jan and Febuary, it would suck if we saw a repeat. Personally I wouldn't put any bet on the ultimate outcome.

It would definitely more than suck! If the majority of the early long range winter forecasts are correct, it seems we are in for a much above average winter, temperature wise and much below average for precipitation. If this winter is a repeat of last year it's going to be pretty depressing.

[CaptinCrunch]

I think a lot of those early Winter forecast that were put out a few months ago were hinging their forecast to a La Nina Winter, however is it now apparent that we will see a ENSO Neutral Winter. The last 3 ENSO Neutral winters were 2005/2006, 2008/2009, 2012/2013.

ENSO-neutral conditions are present.*
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) are near or below average in the east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
ENSO-neutral conditions are slightly favored (between 55-60%) during the upcoming Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2016-17.*

For Texas ENSO Neutral Winters typically see the DJF monthly temperatures at (average/above average) with DJF monthly precip at (below average/average)

[Ntxw]

If winter started today, based on global (and strong emphasis on the Pacifc) SSTAs would nearly be identical to 2013-2014 in itself was a cold neutral ENSO winter (red being El Nino, Blue being La Nina). To get an official El Nino or La Nina you need 0.5C or -0.5C or greater for 5 consecutive trimonthlies. The Atlantic is also identical. I highlighted the ONI (official ENSO readings) for the aforementioned periods. The two smaller boxes represents where ONI is during the current same time period now.









500mb in 2013-2014 and surface temp anomalies





The big elephant of course, is the big area of warmth south of Alaska. Indicative of a strong -EPO regime the cold loading signal for North America. I fully anticipate a -EPO dominated winter.

[Ptarmigan]

If winter started today, based on global (and strong emphasis on the Pacifc) SSTAs would nearly be identical to 2013-2014 in itself was a cold neutral ENSO winter (red being El Nino, Blue being La Nina). To get an official El Nino or La Nina you need 0.5C or -0.5C or greater for 5 consecutive trimonthlies. The Atlantic is also identical. I highlighted the ONI (official ENSO readings) for the aforementioned periods. The two smaller boxes represents where ONI is during the current same time period now.









500mb in 2013-2014 and surface temp anomalies





The big elephant of course, is the big area of warmth south of Alaska. Indicative of a strong -EPO regime the cold loading signal for North America. I fully anticipate a -EPO dominated winter.

-EPO can cause big freezes with a +NAO and +AO.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Post of the thread Ntx. I completely agree. Been looking at the sst's basically everyday and the main warmth has shifted to where it is now over the last month. Also, due to the research i read, any other transitions in sst's for the GOA is unlikely to occur. I think you can go ahead and book it.

Now, with that said, is there going to be anything different that will complement this -EPO? Can we get a -AO with that which can help lower heights for snow? Moisture? Im hoping that there is more moisute available etc.

[Ntxw]

Post of the thread Ntx. I completely agree. Been looking at the sst's basically everyday and the main warmth has shifted to where it is now over the last month. Also, due to the research i read, any other transitions in sst's for the GOA is unlikely to occur. I think you can go ahead and book it.

Now, with that said, is there going to be anything different that will complement this -EPO? Can we get a -AO with that which can help lower heights for snow? Moisture? Im hoping that there is more moisute available etc.

Yeah it seems to have settled. Plus there isn't any stronger outside force to change it (El Nino/La Nina) so it's the big dog unlike last year where the monster Nino flipped it to cold. Had the La Nina gone off then it may have pulled the warmer anomalies further westward and cooled a bit east closer to the Canadian coast. But that doesn't seem to be the case with the La Nada/neutral.

AO is a tough index to predict. We only have SAI (snow advance) with any kind predictable correlation. The cooler waters south of Greenland does favor +NAO/AO though. But as you saw in 2013-2014 +NAO/AO can be overwhelmed by the -EPO. I'm not as worried, we can get cold with +AO/NAO, I've always thought that was an overrated index for us here in TX anyway as the EPO is more important.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Post of the thread Ntx. I completely agree. Been looking at the sst's basically everyday and the main warmth has shifted to where it is now over the last month. Also, due to the research i read, any other transitions in sst's for the GOA is unlikely to occur. I think you can go ahead and book it.

Now, with that said, is there going to be anything different that will complement this -EPO? Can we get a -AO with that which can help lower heights for snow? Moisture? Im hoping that there is more moisute available etc.

Yeah it seems to have settled. Plus there isn't any stronger outside force to change it (El Nino/La Nina) so it's the big dog unlike last year where the monster Nino flipped it to cold. Had the La Nina gone off then it may have pulled the warmer anomalies further westward and cooled a bit east closer to the Canadian coast. But that doesn't seem to be the case with the La Nada/neutral.

AO is a tough index to predict. We only have SAI (snow advance) with any kind predictable correlation. The cooler waters south of Greenland does favor +NAO/AO though. But as you saw in 2013-2014 +NAO/AO can be overwhelmed by the -EPO. I'm not as worried, we can get cold with +AO/NAO, I've always thought that was an overrated index for us here in TX anyway as the EPO is more important.

I agree that AO is overrated for us. It can bring cold/snow, but how often do we have 'strange' setups with many of our snow events. You have opened my eyes to the EPO index, especially that its different from the PNA. The -EPO brings much more shallow cold air for us but honestly, ill take it. We first need the cold, then hopefully get lucky on the other stuff lol.

Also, here's to hoping we still have at least a semi warm GOM too (its very warm right now), could help bring in more moisture.

[Ntxw]

Definitely, have some cold from the EPO and time it with a strong ULL moving overhead and we can get snow. That's how much of our snow events happen anyway with a little luck and timing. Its better to get cold first, than to pray for some generated cold!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/

Interesting that the Pacific has cooled quite a bit the last 7 days. Wonder if this trend will continue. I wouldnt mind a weak-La nina one bit. Warm pool is still there.

Watching the Siberian snow cover alot this month. Def has a correlation in some ways. December and February seem to be much colder here for us when its high. 2013 Oct was a good year for the SAI as well. Fingers crossed.

[A.V.]

Seems like it would be very difficult to make a good long range forecast for this winter from what I've been reading. Given this past winter was pretty dry and warm, especially in Jan and Febuary, it would suck if we saw a repeat. Personally I wouldn't put any bet on the ultimate outcome.

Why? That was the best winter Texas saw in a while, and exactly how winter weather should be all the time.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/ The warm SST near Kamatchka Peninsula has cooled drastically as of late. The warm pool has shifted into the GOA though which is very similar to where it was in 2013 at this time. Kind of scaring myself on how im putting this winter on a huge pedestal. Lots of hope and hype!

[Ntxw]

I think the higher ceiling is valid tpb. Unlike last year there is no real outside force (monster ENSO) to ruin the NPAC dominance. Less can go wrong this season. You can throw in 1983 as a close sst match. I believe we will have plenty of cold and freezes this winter like those two years. The question is will we be able to capture systems to follow it. We are also entering a solar min.

We will know in a few weeks the kind of winter we are headed for. If we see unusual blasts of cold air in November forced by the EPO, you know Dec/Jan willl follow suit.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Question about the solar min, i think i read something about that months ago. Not many sun spots this year. That correct? That correlation is very strong for a cold winter in Texas.

[Ntxw]

Question about the solar min, i think i read something about that months ago. Not many sun spots this year. That correct? That correlation is very strong for a cold winter in Texas.

This is the first year since the last solar min with significant spotless days. Last was in 2009-2010 so we are on the decline to the min now should be 2018-2020 as absolute min. The last min was 2008-2011. Solar mins favor blocking

http://spaceweather.com

[Portastorm]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/ The warm SST near Kamatchka Peninsula has cooled drastically as of late. The warm pool has shifted into the GOA though which is very similar to where it was in 2013 at this time. Kind of scaring myself on how im putting this winter on a huge pedestal. Lots of hope and hype!

[CaptinCrunch]

As we close in on the half way point of the month, October has been extremely warm so far. Through the first 13 days we've had 8 day of above norm temps, 3 days of norm temps and 2 days of below norm temps. As of today we are 3.3 degrees above the monthly average and .14 above avg precip. The forecast is calling for high's in the mid 80's to lower 90's thru Tuesday of next week before the next chance of rain and another cold front passage that should drop our temps back down to normal or slightly below normal.

Let's hope that after this coming heat wave October takes a turn for much cooler weather heading towards Halloween.

[CaptinCrunch]

October Heat Wave Setting Records

Record heat is expected to continue through Wednesday from Texas and New Mexico and stretching as far north as Chicago and eastward into Massachusetts where temperatures are expected to climb into the upper 70's to lower 80's for much of the Northeast. A cold front is forecast to move South and Eastward Thursday and Friday increasing rain chances and bringing in cooler air dropping the humidity with temps back to seasonal levels for the coming weekend before climbing back into the lower 80's by middle of next week.

As of right now October looks to continue as being warmer than normal through the end of the month. Let's hope a pattern change will happen as we move into November and we start seeing signs of some good COLD Canadian air making it's way south.

[Tireman4]

Agreed...this is ridiculous...

Houston:

Today
Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. South wind 5 to 10 mph.
Tonight
Partly cloudy, with a low around 72. South wind 5 to 10 mph.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. Light south wind becoming southeast 5 to 10 mph in the morning.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 71. Southeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm after midnight.
Wednesday
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 69.