Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[DESTRUCTION5]

All the pretty colors are fun to look at. :/

Beats the euros version.

In all seriousness. It is entertaining at least.

[sma10]

You know this run looks pretty similar to last night's 00Z run, so at least there's a sliver of consistency.

I actually think this is a very unusual track - we need LarryWx on the job! Larry - which systems have ever developed this late in the season east of the Caribbean and managed to track into the Gulf as far West as TX/LA?

[sma10]

All the pretty colors are fun to look at. :/

Beats the euros version.

In all seriousness. It is entertaining at least.

Agreed - this would be perfectly okay to me if it were a movie.

[LarryWx]

You know this run looks pretty similar to last night's 00Z run, so at least there's a sliver of consistency.

I actually think this is a very unusual track - we need LarryWx on the job! Larry - which systems have ever developed this late in the season east of the Caribbean and managed to track into the Gulf as far West as TX/LA?

Yes, it would be very unusual so late in the season if this were to become a TC east of the Caribbean and also make it all of the way to TX or LA as a TC. I could only find 3 on record since 1851:

1) Lili of 2002 formed on 9/21 at 45W and later hit central LA as a hurricane: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
2) #13 of 1887 formed on 10/9 at 60W and later hit SE LA as a hurricane: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
3) #4 of 1857 formed on 9/24 at 55W and later hit far S TX as a TS: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /index.php

[cycloneye]

"Never say never in the tropics"

[wxmann_91]

You know this run looks pretty similar to last night's 00Z run, so at least there's a sliver of consistency.

I actually think this is a very unusual track - we need LarryWx on the job! Larry - which systems have ever developed this late in the season east of the Caribbean and managed to track into the Gulf as far West as TX/LA?

Yes, it would be very unusual so late in the season if this were to become a TC east of the Caribbean and also make it all of the way to TX or LA as a TC. I could only find 3 on record since 1851:

1) Lili of 2002 formed on 9/21 at 45W and later hit central LA as a hurricane: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
2) #13 of 1887 formed on 10/9 at 60W and later hit SE LA as a hurricane: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
3) #4 of 1857 formed on 9/24 at 55W and later hit far S TX as a TS: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /index.php

How about those that never made it to the Gulf? (Joan 1988 coming to mind.)

[weatherwindow]

912mb in the western GOM in October, I don't think that's even possible .

Oh and the eye passes over my house on this run. Ok next run please!

Believe it or not I found one track only one that is somewhat similar...Racers storm of October 5th Thru the 7th 1837... cross the northeast corner of the Yucatan on a West northwesterly course and then commenced a very broad almost parabolic recurve landfalling Matamoros Mexico then followed along the Texas coast from southest to northeast, eventually landfalling east of Cameron Louisiana and continued across Louisiana from west to east and moved along the Mississippi Alabama and Florida Gulf Coast and into the Atlantic off of Northern Florida... a one-of-a-kind track or at least I assumed one of a kind...Rich

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is
expected to move rapidly westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean
at 20 to 25 mph for the next several days. Environmental conditions
could be conducive for some gradual development while the system
approaches the Lesser Antilles next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[stormreader]

You know this run looks pretty similar to last night's 00Z run, so at least there's a sliver of consistency.

I actually think this is a very unusual track - we need LarryWx on the job! Larry - which systems have ever developed this late in the season east of the Caribbean and managed to track into the Gulf as far West as TX/LA?

Yes, it would be very unusual so late in the season if this were to become a TC east of the Caribbean and also make it all of the way to TX or LA as a TC. I could only find 3 on record since 1851:

1) Lili of 2002 formed on 9/21 at 45W and later hit central LA as a hurricane: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
2) #13 of 1887 formed on 10/9 at 60W and later hit SE LA as a hurricane: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
3) #4 of 1857 formed on 9/24 at 55W and later hit far S TX as a TS: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /index.php

Great post! But I believe there have been more than one might think which have impacted Cuba or further west and continued on a track south of the U.S. Coast. Which tells me the potential was there for a pick up by a trough toward the U.S.

[blp]

Great consensus in the GFS ensembles up to 192hr truncation. Better than the 12z. In the long range the ensembles have shifted further East.

18z


12z

[RickM]

My first post...

Damn, knowing the ramifications, my wife booked a trip to Grand Cayman September 28-October 6. A lot cheaper, obviously. Here's hoping this thing spins off into the Atlantic!

[stormreader]

Speaking of potential strength of this system, I wonder if there's ever been a statistical analysis of average strength of Atlantic tropical systems at a given time of year. Could be just imagination, but seems like October storms (though fewer than mid-Aug through Sept) seem less likely to be your run of the mill tropical storms or Cat 1's. Seems like they have an increased likelihood of going major.

[abajan]

That X is south of the Cabo Verdes, not southeast:

[LarryWx]

You know this run looks pretty similar to last night's 00Z run, so at least there's a sliver of consistency.

I actually think this is a very unusual track - we need LarryWx on the job! Larry - which systems have ever developed this late in the season east of the Caribbean and managed to track into the Gulf as far West as TX/LA?

Yes, it would be very unusual so late in the season if this were to become a TC east of the Caribbean and also make it all of the way to TX or LA as a TC. I could only find 3 on record since 1851:

1) Lili of 2002 formed on 9/21 at 45W and later hit central LA as a hurricane: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
2) #13 of 1887 formed on 10/9 at 60W and later hit SE LA as a hurricane: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
3) #4 of 1857 formed on 9/24 at 55W and later hit far S TX as a TS: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /index.php

There is one more that formed on 9/21 (which is close enough to today's date and I already counted 9/21's Lili anyway) that I'll call an honorable mention (since arguable if can count as forming E of the Caribbean) but that's definitely all of anything 9/21+ that could be considered:

#6 of 1915 formed on 9/21 at 61W (look at the map and judge for yourselves if this should count..i think it should) and later hit SE LA as a major hurricane: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[LarryWx]

:uarrow: "Never say never in the tropics"

I agree. I prefer to say things like "extremely unlikely" or 1-2% chance, etc., even if something similar has not occurred on record. I'm not referring to Pouch 39L when I say this. I mean in general.

[LarryWx]

You know this run looks pretty similar to last night's 00Z run, so at least there's a sliver of consistency.

I actually think this is a very unusual track - we need LarryWx on the job! Larry - which systems have ever developed this late in the season east of the Caribbean and managed to track into the Gulf as far West as TX/LA?

Yes, it would be very unusual so late in the season if this were to become a TC east of the Caribbean and also make it all of the way to TX or LA as a TC. I could only find 3 on record since 1851:

1) Lili of 2002 formed on 9/21 at 45W and later hit central LA as a hurricane: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
2) #13 of 1887 formed on 10/9 at 60W and later hit SE LA as a hurricane: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
3) #4 of 1857 formed on 9/24 at 55W and later hit far S TX as a TS: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /index.php

How about those that never made it to the Gulf? (Joan 1988 coming to mind.)

Yes, indeed. I haven't compiled these, however. If I find time, i could do so.

[LarryWx]

You know this run looks pretty similar to last night's 00Z run, so at least there's a sliver of consistency.

I actually think this is a very unusual track - we need LarryWx on the job! Larry - which systems have ever developed this late in the season east of the Caribbean and managed to track into the Gulf as far West as TX/LA?

Yes, it would be very unusual so late in the season if this were to become a TC east of the Caribbean and also make it all of the way to TX or LA as a TC. I could only find 3 on record since 1851:

1) Lili of 2002 formed on 9/21 at 45W and later hit central LA as a hurricane: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
2) #13 of 1887 formed on 10/9 at 60W and later hit SE LA as a hurricane: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
3) #4 of 1857 formed on 9/24 at 55W and later hit far S TX as a TS: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /index.php

Great post! But I believe there have been more than one might think which have impacted Cuba or further west and continued on a track south of the U.S. Coast. Which tells me the potential was there for a pick up by a trough toward the U.S.

Thank you. Indeed, I recall seeing several like you describe.

[Steve]

My first post...

Damn, knowing the ramifications, my wife booked a trip to Grand Cayman September 28-October 6. A lot cheaper, obviously. Here's hoping this thing spins off into the Atlantic!

Lol. I was on the beach down there March 2013 on a cruise that basically sailed around Cuba. It stopped on Grand Cayman and in Ocho Rios. There was a hung up front most of the week that rippled back and forth but kept everything grey, and depending on what side of it we were on at any given moment it was either cloudy and cool or cloudy and mild. And the water was still cold. So we sat on the beach at Royal Palms with suck weather. I guess at least it wasn't a hurricane.

You still going?

[sma10]

My first post...

Damn, knowing the ramifications, my wife booked a trip to Grand Cayman September 28-October 6. A lot cheaper, obviously. Here's hoping this thing spins off into the Atlantic!

Well, it's likely to be a memorable trip, one way or the other.

[Fego]

Just an example of how consistent has been the GFS. Here what the model had forecasted for October 3 at 18z.