Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[toad strangler]

IMO, the Euro didn't develop due to so much land interaction as it moved along SA coast... If other models follow the Euro track they would not show a bomb and I bet if Euro slides a bit N on the 00z it will develop... Model consistency showing a very intense hurricane like we have not seen in the Atlantic basin in what seems like years... If nothing comes from 39L this will be one of the biggest model busts of the past few seasons IMO... Little action in the W Caribbean has left those boiling SST's and combined with favorable upper level conditions in W Caribbean, per the modeling, is a recipe for a biggie!!

I think because of how far out the epic solutions are right now insulate this from any label of "biggest bust in awhile". Let's be honest, that moniker is reserved for huge busts in the close in range.

[robbielyn]

I hope this doesn't become a strong or major hurricane in the gulf at all but I hope it goes anywhere but florida and LA we had our tropical effects for the year.

[robbielyn]

IMO, the Euro didn't develop due to so much land interaction as it moved along SA coast... If other models follow the Euro track they would not show a bomb and I bet if Euro slides a bit N on the 00z it will develop... Model consistency showing a very intense hurricane like we have not seen in the Atlantic basin in what seems like years... If nothing comes from 39L this will be one of the biggest model busts of the past few seasons IMO... Little action in the W Caribbean has left those boiling SST's and combined with favorable upper level conditions in W Caribbean, per the modeling, is a recipe for a biggie!!

I think because of how far out the epic solutions are right now insulate this from any label of "biggest bust in awhile". Let's be honest, that moniker is reserved for huge busts in the close in range.

Yeah really.

[wxman57]

System coming into Atlantic wide-view far bottom-right corner of this animated GIF. It has a decent area of convection already:

http://s15.postimg.org/pg2j8d24b/avn_animated.gif

That's the leading edge of the wave (nearing 30W), but the main "center" is about 5-6 deg east of that convection. There's no convection near the center. It's best seen on the TPW loop. Between 8N-9N and around 24W:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/main.html

[PTrackerLA]

Another point for anyone who has been around here for a while (me!) is back 10 years ago it was very common for the GFS to produce phantom storms all over the basin during the season. While models may not be having the best year they are a hell of a lot better than what we used to have. It's been several years since I've seen an intense hurricane modeled (run after run now) in the Caribbean like this so it's very valid for us to have a heightened interest right now. Whatever happens after the Caribbean will vary drastically from run to run. There's no reason we can't share these runs on Storm2k, it's why most of us are here anyway. The evolution of these systems is what I always find most intriguing.

[wxman57]

Here's a sat pic I made of the East Atlantic. The red circled area is where the models are keying on. No convection there, but that's where the TPW rotation is.

[TheAustinMan]

Summary of all the various GFS deterministic tracks that have depicted a tropical cyclone developing from Pouch 39L, with colors indicating intensities based on simple wind/pressure relationships. The map includes 21 model runs of the GFS since 00z September 18.

[Hurricaneman]

Summary of all the various GFS deterministic tracks that have depicted a tropical cyclone developing from Pouch 39L, with colors indicating intensities based on simple wind/pressure relationships. The map includes 21 model runs of the GFS since 00z September 18.

http://i.imgur.com/fqnyyCq.png

The consensus of those runs seems to be the yucatan channel

[Bailey1777]

Quick question while things are quiet..do we have any members on here with first-hand knowledge of the hurricane center...I'm wondering do they have tools that nobody else but them have access to. Things that if we had seeing surface circulations and the such would be easy?

[Hurricaneman]

the 0zGFS seems a little slower than the 18z run

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like a cat 1 hurricane entering the Islands on the 0zGFS

[WeatherEmperor]

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[1900hurricane]

The east coast trough is a good bit more amplified this run.

[WeatherEmperor]

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[PTrackerLA]

The east coast trough is a good bit more amplified this run.

And yet it's stronger and a bit to the south of the 18z run. Popcorn time to see how this plays out.

[1900hurricane]

Doesn't look like it matters though. Looks like it deamplifies well before the modeled storm approaches it.

[WeatherEmperor]

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[toad strangler]

00z GFS through 162 hours

[PTrackerLA]

Well there's certainly no backing down in intensity on the GFS. 927mb at 186 hours:

[toad strangler]

18z GFS through 186 hours begins the NW turn