Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[WeatherEmperor]

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[PTrackerLA]

Dang, looks like Jamaica could get it again this run, although it's definitely slower on the 00z.

[WeatherEmperor]

This is obsurd. Its basically showing some of the worst potential disaster we have ever seen. I cant post anymore...


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[toad strangler]

Thats healthy vorticity @186

[Hurricaneman]

I'm thinking well east in the eastern GOM at the end of this run

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[PTrackerLA]

Definitely a cat 5 again bearing down on Jamaica, good grief.

[Hurricaneman]

Based on the last 2 runs of the GFS when was the last time a cat 5 hurricane hit Jamaica

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[toad strangler]

Through 222 hours on Jamaica's doorstep

[toad strangler]

00z GFS through 234 hours decimates Jamaica on the NE side for the 2nd run in a row.

[Bailey1777]

Honestly, this far out give a monkey a stick and tell him to point, about as accurate...maybe more this year..

[PTrackerLA]

Edit: 288 hrs:

[toad strangler]

[1900hurricane]

The GFS consistency is rather notable, and it does have some support from other members of guidance. If the ECMWF jumps aboard with at least a track into the Caribbean, that would be some excellent model consensus in the 5-7 day range. If the consensus goes beyond general track philosophy, we're starting to talk super typhoon-type signals. I'm not going all in unless we can get a couple consecutive stronger ECMWF solutions though.

[toad strangler]

[toad strangler]

FWIW, NE turn @ 336 hours.

[stormlover2013]

140 hours it's good, after that nothing matters....

[Hurricaneman]

Heading to the Florida Peninsula this run I can guarantee looking at 336hrs and its movement

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[1900hurricane]

Meh, I'm not concerned about anything depicted beyond tau 240. Even general hemispheric pattern is usually a mess at that range unless there is a feature with higher predictability like a notable block dictating the mid latitudes.

[WeatherEmperor]

Hits Florida Big Bend at 360hr


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[stormlover2013]

Heck it's sometimes a mess in 3-4 day range lol