Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[TheProfessor]

GFS is definitely keeping late night mode watching entertaining.

[toad strangler]

Fantasy range landfall in the FL Big Bend E of where Hermine went in.

[Hurricaneman]

Hits Florida Big Bend at 360hr


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I think this systems movement in the Caribbean might be if its faster it will bury itself in Central America but if its even just a little slower than the 0zGFS this could be that Tampa hurricane that many have feared since 1921

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[WeatherEmperor]

Heck it's sometimes a mess in 3-4 day range lol

Models tend to be a mess when dealing with shear or dry air or other inhibiting conditions. In this case there is almost no unfavorable conditions...hence the explosion to a Cat 5. In these conditions u have to take the models way more seriously I think.


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[PTrackerLA]

00z CMC develops again

[1900hurricane]

I would strongly caution against taking the model output as verbatim (in any situation), but there is lots of useful information that can be gleaned from these series of runs.

[PTrackerLA]

I would strongly caution against taking the model output as verbatim (in any situation), but there is lots of useful information that can be gleaned from these series of runs.

I take from the GFS that it's been very consistent on at least a TS by the Barbados area in less than 5 days now. From that point, the GFS obviously sees a very favorable environment. We haven't see a Caribbean cruiser type storm in quite some time so I'll be looking to see if TC development really takes place in 72 hours like the 00z GFS shows. If so, game on in my opinion. We should know a lot more by Monday.

[wxmann_91]

I would strongly caution against taking the model output as verbatim (in any situation), but there is lots of useful information that can be gleaned from these series of runs.

Always enjoy your posts, 1900hurricane... what particular useful tidbits of information are you referring to?

[Steve]

Interesting point on the GFS is the hook happens after the no mans land in the W Atlantic or > 12 days. This run indicates a big break for the NC Gulf. And while I'm not sure of the angle of landfall, the endgame of east of Apalachicola would be apropos for 2016. Between Tallahassee and Jacksonville along with some of the coastal areas of SC/NC/VA all have taken a pounding here and there particularly in and around Jacksonville.

So my take on this run is unless GFS is overdoing the kick out power of the next trough to turn this out, it's a smoother recurve. Here's the problem. Megi is moving south of 290 degrees on the 29th. 10 days out from that is October 9. There won't likely be an opportunity for a sharp recurve yet when the GFS has it. Slower the system is the more likely it will hook later imho.

[stormlover2013]

The good thing nothing has developed!!!

[PTrackerLA]

00z Euro 96hrs vort is much better defined than 18z:

[LarryWx]

Based on 0Z Euro hour 120, I think that the eastern US ridge won't be as strong in the 7-10 day period as it was on the 12Z run. Look at upper low over Ohio!

[Steve]

Based on 0Z Euro hour 120, I think that the eastern US ridge won't be as strong in the 7-10 day period as it was on the 12Z run. Look at upper low over Ohio!

That's crazy, but it could be a deep low preceding a big high I wish I had a slightly longer EURO run so I could see if the southern extent splits off in the Euro.

[PTrackerLA]

00z Euro 144 hrs:

[PTrackerLA]

192 hrs:

[PTrackerLA]

216 hrs:

[PTrackerLA]

240 hrs, strengthening hurricane moving slowly NW:

[tolakram]

0Z Euro similar to the previous 0z run.

[bamajammer4eva]

Wow at the agreement between GFS, Canadian, Euro at 10 days all show a cane in the western Caribbean



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[Hammy]

It's so strange after the last few years, seeing a strong hurricane even in the models within the 240 hour period in the Caribbean.