wxmann_91 wrote:1900hurricane wrote:I would strongly caution against taking the model output as verbatim (in any situation), but there is lots of useful information that can be gleaned from these series of runs.
Always enjoy your posts, 1900hurricane... what particular useful tidbits of information are you referring to?
There are a few things that jump out at me. The sheer consistency of the GFS makes me believe that this is likely to enter the western Caribbean, despite questions that usually start cropping up at the larger taus. Ensemble support doesn't hurt either, with the GEFS and a good number of EPS members showing a modeled system in the same general vicinity of the operational GFS at tau 240. The mid latitude flow is not the most predictable right now, but my bets are that the system will remain embedded far enough below subtropical ridging that the inconsistencies in mid-latitude flow won't be a factor earlier in the system's life.
It's also worth noting that the globals in general have an over-intensification bias in subtropical and middle latitudes. We've seen that come into play this year with storms like Conson, Gaston, Lionrock, and Karl. However, this is not a prevalent bias at the tropical latitudes the Caribbean is at. I still do believe that the GFS intensities may be overdone due to it getting an early jump in intensification in the eastern Caribbean, but overall, the higher intensities are much more believable in this scenario. As I mentioned before, this system is ticking off a lot of the checkmarks I usually have for when I'm trying to determine if the Tropical Western Pacific is going to spit out another super typhoon. I am very intrigued by this system right now and will continue to be watching it closely.
