Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/779560078529658880

[gatorcane]

06Z GEFS day 5, I'd say that is some consensus

[gatorcane]

Day 7:

[gatorcane]

Day 10. Look how they are well east of the GFS operational. By the way remarkable consensus that far out

[Kazmit]

I have a bad feeling about this one. The waters in the western Caribbean are quite warm right now, and numerous models predict a Cat 4 or 5.

[gatorcane]

Up to 50% now and NHC says a depression could form before it reaches the Lesser Antilles

[cycloneye]

Up to 10%-50%

A tropical wave, accompanied by a broad area of low pressure, is
located south of the Cabo Verde Islands. This disturbance is
expected to move rapidly westward across the tropical Atlantic
Ocean at 20 to 25 mph for the next several days. Environmental
conditions are expected to become conducive for gradual development,
and a tropical depression could form while the system approaches the
Lesser Antilles and moves into the Caribbean Sea by the middle of
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[ronjon]

Ensemble run hints at further east shifts in track 10 days out.

[ronjon]

Future "Matthew" looks like a beast. Could be our first major hurricane landfall in US since Wilma?

[abajan]

Looks like a cat 1 hurricane entering the Islands on the 0zGFS

Somehow, I highly doubt that will happen. While I understand what Alyono stated yesterday about a fast moving system not necessarily meaning high shear, the most I'm currently expecting for Barbados and the Windward Islands is a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 55 mph or so, and some hurricane force gusts. Not that I'll let my guard down.

As to the Western Caribbean, that's another story altogether. I think it's going to bomb like crazy by the time it gets there. We could easily see a system approaching Cat 5.

[gatorcane]

So what are you all thinking as far as when this becomes 97l?

[cycloneye]

So what are you all thinking as far as when this becomes 97l?

Sometime today or on Sunday.

[CourierPR]

Ensemble run hints at further east shifts in track 10 days out.

Yes, and folks have been talking about it getting into the Western Caribbean but I wonder if it will get that far west.

[abajan]

So what are you all thinking as far as when this becomes 97l?

Good question. I thought that would've happened yesterday but now I'm not sure it'll even happen today.
To my untrained eye, it just doesn't seem to be in any hurry to get its act together.

[DESTRUCTION5]

So what are you all thinking as far as when this becomes 97l?

Sometime today or on Sunday.

Not sure when but it's a lock to happen.

Also think this ends MDR season and does it with a bang.

[cycloneye]

So what are you all thinking as far as when this becomes 97l?

Good question. I thought that would've happened yesterday but now I'm not sure it'll even happen today.
To my untrained eye, it just doesn't seem to be in any hurry to get its act together.

Many times in past years,they had Invests for disorganized systems but this one IMO can be a invest for them to run the tropical models as there is consensus among the global ones.

[cycloneye]

Abajan.In terms of the % to be a invest,it doesn't matter much as they can upgrade to invest from 10% thru 30%.In fact 10% invests had been up many times but the most had been up at 20%.

[KWT]

The big thing to note with the GFS is it forms this much further east than other models so not surprising the ensembles are further east.

My gut is this goes deep into the Caribbean but north of ECM and CMC. Probable hurricane.

[robbielyn]

I've never been in a major before and dont want to. but so I could get an idea if I should evacuate or not ive created a scenario.. lets suppose it is a cat 3 at landfall in appalach 247 mi nw of me I'm just north of tampa in hernando county. Say cat 3 winds in a 20-30 mi radius. how strong would would sustained winds be in my area (im 8.8 miles east from the coastline?) I do live in a mobile home. I know a lot of the times as these powerful hurricanes can weaken a category by the time it makes landfall so this was a cat 4 in the gulf. so again what would sustained winds be in my area?

[AJC3]

REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0830 AM EDT SAT 24 SEPTEMBER 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....19-121

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: PROBABLE LOW LEVEL INVEST OF A
DEVELOPING SYSTEM NEAR 12.5N 54.0W AT 27/1800Z.
4. REMARKS:
A. THE NOAA G-IV WILL FLY A RESEARCH MISSION TODAY AROUND
KARL AT 24/1730Z.
B. THE P-3 WILL A RESEARCH MISSION IN AND AROUND KARL
TODAY AT 24/1800Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

$$