ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Alyono]

NHC designated our wave as an invest. This one is bound to cause trouble

[LJFire1467]

Where do you see it? I dont see it on nhc.noaa.gov

[SFLcane]

Um 899mb...nearing Cuba yea right.

[CrazyC83]

This storm...could be one that we remember for a long time.

[psyclone]

I expect this to be "the storm" of 2016.

[rickybobby]

We have potentially 8 days if it hits the us. Im saying this will be over 200 pages.

[AxaltaRacing24]

If conditions are as favorable as foretasted we could be talking about this for years and possibly decades to come.

[LJFire1467]

Um 899mb...nearing Cuba yea right.

Which model? Im seeing 973 on gfs

[Hurricaneman]

consolidation at about 9N 35W

[SeGaBob]

About time...

[Steve]

Atlanta in the game at 324. GFS Buckles what appears to be zonal flow (haven't looked at the upper charts) and hooks a NW moving storm NE toward Panama City and has the remaining TS very far north along AL/GA border in 12 hours. This run, while still sketchy, is better than 18z in my opinion.

[psyclone]

Ivan 04 continues to creep into my mind. low Caribbean track, hammers Jamaica, the Caymans, Western Cuba on up to the Florida panhandle. that would certainly fit climo too. it's been awhile since we've had a good scare but if this engine can go..

[MetroMike]

If it is anywhere near Aruba entrainment of dry air could slow development as the models don't see land. Correct?

[Alyono]

If it is anywhere near Aruba entrainment of dry air could slow development as the models don't see land. Correct?

Models see the land and the mountains just fine

[galaxy401]

So models see a potential monster in the making. This could be a crazy two weeks... I'm sure the forum will have a volatile emotional curve after any change in the storm's behavior.

[USTropics]

2:00AM update, up to 20/80%:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karl, located east-northeast of Bermuda, and has issued the
last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Lisa, located over the
eastern tropical Atlantic.

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity has developed in association with
a tropical wave and a low pressure system located several hundred
miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. This disturbance is
forecast to move westward to west-northwestward across the tropical
Atlantic Ocean at 15 to 20 mph for the next several days.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development as the system, and a tropical depression could form
while the system approaches the Lesser Antilles by midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
Forecaster Stewart

[jlauderdal]

So models see a potential monster in the making. This could be a crazy two weeks... I'm sure the forum will have a volatile emotional curve after any change in the storm's behavior.

its the inconsistency in modeling that causes the volatile emotional curve

IF this develops as modeled in a few days then hopefully we get better consistency then we have seen this year

[KWT]

Interesting to see some models bend this ever so slightly WSW into S.America, that must be a very rare track, but given how far south this system is that certainly seems to be an interesting solution.

[GCANE]

[KWT]

Some nice convection there GCANE, still got a few days though before anything should really pop.