#49 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 25, 2016 12:56 am
bamajammer4eva wrote:I
KNOW this map is wrong but I'm curious as to why the GFS does this with tropical systems showing them not penetrating inland very much at all. By the time the storm is near Atlanta (12 hrs later), there are only 35kt winds associated with it.
Being that Atlanta is nearly 250 miles inland and at 1,000 foot elevation, winds are going to slow up drastically despite the pretty fast movement. Eloise in 1975 went from a 955 mb 110 knot cat 3 to a 982 mb 55 knot TS in just 6 hours, when it had gotten nearly 200 miles inland (moving 30 mph!). Opal in 1995 went from a 942 mb 100 knot cat 3 to a 974 mb 50 knot TS in just 8 hours, when it had gotten some 175 miles inland. The 0Z GFS takes 12 hours to go from the gulf coast to Atlanta as you said.
Based on what Alyono mentioned, 35 knots could be somewhat low. Regardless, even 35 knot sustained would be nearly 40 mph sustained with gusts probably into the 50's, a really big deal for a well inland spot like Atlanta and would be nothing about which to sneeze! Opal's highest max 2 minute wind speed was 33 mph and highest gust was near 49 mph at the ATL airport. I was in Atlanta and it was an intense blow, believe me! Numerous trees were taken down.
Last edited by
LarryWx on Sun Sep 25, 2016 1:12 am, edited 2 times in total.
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