ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Siker]

Euro has a habit of leaving cut off lows...especially in the SW United States

But we will see

I have noticed multiple times this summer that the Euro has attempted to leave a cutoff low near the East Coast when the GFS has not. Problem is, I don't remember if any of them actually verified.

[Ivanhater]

One thing we are not debating is if this develops or not..
This is coming somewhere

[Ivanhater]

Euro has a habit of leaving cut off lows...especially in the SW United States

But we will see

I have noticed multiple times this summer that the Euro has attempted to leave a cutoff low near the East Coast when the GFS has not. Problem is, I don't remember if any of them actually verified.

Good observation. .I tend to notice it in the winter time but it has a bias to cut off and leave behind ..curious to see if it does the same in the south east

[KWT]

Indeed Ivan, the models all agreeing that there is a decent set-up aloft for a hurricane to come from this system. Where it goes is though a big question.

First question is whether it goes north of SA...imagine if it impales itself into SA and tears itself apart. That may be the best case in terms of not having a beast...though that would imply alot of rain...

Anyway GFS 06z is strengthening away, down to 946mbs at 150hrs and heading decently WNW/NW. Taking a distinctly Ivan type track thus far.

[brunota2003]

Euro has a habit of leaving cut off lows...especially in the SW United States

But we will see

I have noticed multiple times this summer that the Euro has attempted to leave a cutoff low near the East Coast when the GFS has not. Problem is, I don't remember if any of them actually verified.

I don't remember having many ULLs sitting over/near me here in KY this summer...hot and pretty dry

[USTropics]

174 hours, Jamaica landfall:

[Ivanhater]

Agree KWT..we are all scrambling for past tracks but not too many to compare to this time of year

[KWT]

Looks like a powerful hurricane hitting land there Ustropics.

This run thus far is closer to the GFS ensemble mean from the 00z. Going east of the 00z GFS op run.

[USTropics]

Most certainly is a powerful hurricane:

[USTropics]

The position of the high is currently over Quebec, the 00z GFS had this over the NE states. I believe that's allowed this to move more north of the 00z:

[KWT]

97L about to have a date with central Cuba, probably as a 4/5 hurricane from the looks of the GFS. Be interesting to see what the run does after Cuba though. Mind you we will be in the lower resolution part of the run by that point.

Edit - 923mbs!

[jlauderdal]

Most certainly is a powerful hurricane:

That is one mean looking system..haven't seen something close to that in a long time threatening the USA..still a model storm..shear and COL seem to pop up the last few years

[USTropics]

Down to 923mb at 204 hours:

[USTropics]

Cat 4/5 getting ready to make landfall in central Cuba:

[Ivanhater]

This is recurving NE soon

[KWT]

Massive hit on Cuba this run, not particularly fast moving system either.

Heading NNW over Cuba out to 234hrs.

[brunota2003]

Looks like it'll hit those mountains?

[USTropics]

Spends 18-24 hours over Cuba, that would be devastating:

[Ivanhater]

Still.a big ride over the south east.....this run doesn't help

[USTropics]

Looks like a SW Florida landfall coming up, maybe up the coast? 946 mbs, 264 hours, take it with a grain of salt.