ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[hurrtracker79]

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/780065599774986244

[centuryv58]

My east of Bermuda prediction looks good now.

Not really, but its something to wish for anyway. PS. I just hope the model run by run panic doesn't get too great this time. Hard to follow pages and pages of posts.

[Kazmit]

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/780065599774986244

A wide cone indeed. The Greater Antilles, Florida, and the Bahamas need to watch this. I think that Cuba definitely has a target on them.

[stormreader]

Being late Sept/Oct, W into CA a common track for low riders and it's not uncommon for systems to be plucked out of Caribbean abruptly on a N or NE track... No surprise here if 97l ends up east of 06z or swings back due W into CA... Smooth WNW track into Central or W GOM is low probability, not impossible... It's 10 days out!!

But the gradual WNW to NW track is not so rare in early Oct. The abrupt turn N over Cuba and into Fl would mean that significant trough info was present. We simply don't know this, yet. I actually think that there is at least a 50 % chance that this takes the gradual turn into the central GOM.

[Steve]

GFS isn't really hanging up the front anymore and has it washing out over the Deep South by 36 hours with a frontal low around 1013 in SW Alabama. That frontal low pops up again just SE off the NC coast. So that's a little different than a couple of days ago. We will see where it all goes from here. Also evolving is the massive high behind the low in the Great Lakes is weaker and more sags down inton Texas instead of moving east. Looks like a narrower ridge coming down from Canada behind the Great Lakes low in 2 1/2 days.

[tolakram]

GFS 12Z

1007 or 1006 approaching the islands.

[tolakram]

[ThetaE]

The 12z GFS seems slightly slower and slightly stronger with 97L so far this run.

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS now has the cutoff low so this maybe west of the Euro but well east of the 6zGFS

[tolakram]

[Alyono]

stronger and a little slower so far

[pgoss11]

Looks more north to me than the 6z run

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm not sold on the "out to sea recurve" that some people are mentioning. Now if the GFS shows that by tonight, then you may be right, but we'll see.

[Hurricaneman]

looking at the 500mb this run goes just east of Florida unless the ridge builds back in

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[tolakram]

[RL3AO]

Looks like the GFS is moving towards the Euro solution with the cut off trough over the eastern US.

[hurrtracker79]

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/780076998257508353

[tolakram]

No big change from last run except everything is a bit slower, so far.

[CrazyC83]

We're moving into the time range that the initial movement is not fantasyland either. It would affect the larger islands by next weekend.

[tolakram]

Looks like the GFS is moving towards the Euro solution with the cut off trough over the eastern US.

http://i.imgur.com/4TbmXBm.gif

Euro has a similar trend, not picking up on the cuttoff low until the last couple of runs.