ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

Big change from last run.

[tolakram]

Escape route to the north.

[Alyono]

UKMET has a hurricane landfall near Caracas

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 12.8N 55.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.09.2016 72 12.8N 55.9W 1008 31
0000UTC 29.09.2016 84 13.2N 58.6W 1004 41
1200UTC 29.09.2016 96 12.7N 61.4W 1001 48
0000UTC 30.09.2016 108 12.3N 63.5W 991 58
1200UTC 30.09.2016 120 11.7N 64.5W 983 66
0000UTC 01.10.2016 132 11.7N 65.7W 985 61
1200UTC 01.10.2016 144 11.3N 66.5W 990 54

[SeGaBob]

I knew this would happen. Expect further eastward shifts until it ends up east of Bermuda.

[stormlover2013]

Looks like a recurve

[psyclone]

I knew this would happen. Expect further eastward shifts until it ends up east of Bermuda.

East of Bermuda would be a stretch but missing the US to the East would not.

[tolakram]

I knew this would happen. Expect further eastward shifts until it ends up east of Bermuda.

I see west of Bermuda possible but not east. I think you still lose that bet. I say this before the run is done though.

[CrazyC83]

Looks like a recurve

But could it pull back west by a rebuilding ridge or a trough interaction?

[CrazyC83]

I knew this would happen. Expect further eastward shifts until it ends up east of Bermuda.

I see west of Bermuda possible but not east. I think you still lose that bet. I say this before the run is done though.

That could lead to a human disaster of epic proportions in Haiti if that run holds...

[tolakram]

[Alyono]

I knew this would happen. Expect further eastward shifts until it ends up east of Bermuda.

It cannot recurve east of Bermuda. Any turn will happen at least 500 miles west of Bermuda

[ThetaE]

Doesn't look like it's going to recurve to me. Could be a Hazel-esque track coming up.

[tolakram]

Doesn't look like it's going to recurve to me. Could be a Hazel-esque track coming up.

Except now we are in the range where the GFS errors are large and getting larger. From this point out it's entertainment in my opinion.

[p1nheadlarry]

Doesn't look like it's going to recurve to me. Could be a Hazel-esque track coming up.

Woah there now, we don't need that

[tolakram]

[AJC3]

I knew this would happen. Expect further eastward shifts until it ends up east of Bermuda.

It cannot recurve east of Bermuda. Any turn will happen at least 500 miles west of Bermuda

I'm pretty sure that what he's been meaning to say all along is that once it reaches the latitude of Bermuda (~32.3N), that the COC will pass east of the island.

[Kazmit]

If the recurve solution is true, I expect an Emily '87-type track out of this.

[CrazyC83]

The trough in the west could be the defining feature...if it comes in early, this is Hazel 2.0...

[ThetaE]

Doesn't look like it's going to recurve to me. Could be a Hazel-esque track coming up.

Except now we are in the range where the GFS errors are large and getting larger. From this point out it's entertainment in my opinion.

For me, the cutoff low is still entertainment . I'm waiting for another few GFS runs and the 12z ECMWF to be convinced about it.