ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS with a recurve east of Florida but way too close for comfort in that timeframe. Bahamas get slammed.

[tolakram]

[GeneratorPower]

Better be careful here. Wild swings in models will burn you every time.

[BobHarlem]

Euro and GFS are much closer aligned with this GFS run with shifts east (although the 0z euro pulls it over Hispaniola, not eastern Cuba), no continental US impact, but the Bahamas get really hammered. Islands near S. America/Jamaica/Eastern Cuba and the Bahamas. I'll watch to see if it shifts more east, but man is that cutoff low really strong to rip it out of the Caribbean there.

[Hurricaneman]

I want to see the ensembles before I go with the 12zGFS

[AxaltaRacing24]

As expected we are seeing a lot of windshield wiping. I would not be surprised to see this back into Texas or La later today.

[gatorcane]

HUGE shift west by the CMC

[TheStormExpert]

As expected we are seeing a lot of windshield wiping. I would not be surprised to see this back into Texas or La later today.

I would be extremely surprised.

[tolakram]

[CrazyC83]

HUGE shift west by the CMC

So they are all in the same ballpark now. Awaiting what the trough does...I think it comes back to the east coast with that setup.

[Hurricaneman]

As expected we are seeing a lot of windshield wiping. I would not be surprised to see this back into Texas or La later today.

I would be extremely surprised.

Its all going to come down to whether the cutoff low forms or not

[BobHarlem]

As expected we are seeing a lot of windshield wiping. I would not be surprised to see this back into Texas or La later today.

Maybe between the SE coast and out to sea, but I don't see it going back that far west.

[Bocadude85]

All I am taking from the models is that there is going to be a weakness around the Florida/Bahama region. Could be bad news for Florida but time will tell.

[AxaltaRacing24]

As expected we are seeing a lot of windshield wiping. I would not be surprised to see this back into Texas or La later today.

Maybe between the SE coast and out to sea, but I don't see it going back that far west.

Unlikely I know but with the models this year I would not be too shocked.

[tolakram]

I'm still not buying into the intensity in the Caribbean until it starts to pull north. I'm not sure if in this case a weaker storm moves west or not.

[tolakram]

Remember this is fantasy range.

[stormreader]

Doesn't look like it's going to recurve to me. Could be a Hazel-esque track coming up.

Except now we are in the range where the GFS errors are large and getting larger. From this point out it's entertainment in my opinion.

For me, the cutoff low is still entertainment . I'm waiting for another few GFS runs and the 12z ECMWF to be convinced about it.

Amen! Placement of a cut-off low about 5 days from now has to be a more difficult thing for models to forecast accurately as compared with the overall upper air pattern. This could so easily swing back west in a couple of days.

[stormreader]

Better be careful here. Wild swings in models will burn you every time.

So true!

[tolakram]

[blp]

Keep in mind the Euro due North jump happened after 192hr truncation, less reliable portion. The Euro ensembles were further west. I think this run will switch again slightly more toward the ensembles.