ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[gatorcane]

Looking at last night's global models, I see the ECMWF turns the cyclone north beyond 168 hours while the GFS does not. Notice the ECMWF keeps a large mid to upper-level cut-off low meandering around the Eastern US for days while none of the other models show this. Plus once you get beyond 168 hours with the ECMWF in the 192+ hour timeframe, I notice it can change quite a bit. So bottom-line, I wouldn't be surprised if the ECMWF comes more in line with the GFS on the 12Z run later today and the 12Z GFS running now doesn't shift all the way to the right where the ECMWF is at on the 00Z. I could see the GFS shifting right some though but maybe not as much as folks may think. We shall see....

[tarheelprogrammer]

I see pretty good rotation near 8N/39W this morning (red crosshairs in the image below). No convection there, but good rotation (on TPW loop, too). It still looks like it will be fighting dry air until it moves into the Caribbean, though, so I am somewhat doubtful it will become a tropical storm east of the Caribbean, certainly doubtful of a strong storm or hurricane east of the islands.

Looks like a fair chance it will threaten the ABC islands as a hurricane, which is rare. I'm not so sure it will ever enter the Gulf of Mexico, though. It may well be drawn northward toward the Bahamas. Threat to the central Gulf coast & NW Gulf is looking less possible. Much will depend on where it develops.

http://i67.tinypic.com/30m6bk0.jpg

I know it's still very early in the game but what's your current thoughts on potential threat for S. FL/SE FL?

Definitely could be a Florida threat. Florida and east through the Bahamas may be the most likely track.

North Carolina still a likely destination or you feel it is going OTS?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Not so sure I buy a strong northward tug on this system, especially when it might be only a few dozen miles off the coast of SA per the 00z ECMWF. 00z EPS shows pretty substantial ridging over the eastern CONUS right now, which is at odds with the operational run showing a trough.

[TheStormExpert]

Looking at last night's global models, I see the ECMWF turns the cyclone north beyond 168 hours while the GFS does not. Notice the ECMWF keeps a large mid to upper-level cut-off low meandering around the Eastern US for days while none of the other models show this. Plus once you get beyond 168 hours with the ECMWF in the 192+ hour timeframe, I notice it can change quite a bit. So bottom-line, I wouldn't be surprised if the ECMWF comes more in line with the GFS on the 12Z run later today and the 12Z GFS running now doesn't shift all the way to the right where the ECMWF is at on the 00Z. I could see the GFS shifting right some though but maybe not as much as folks may think. We shall see....

I believe someone on here in the past month or so was saying how the Euro has been trying to develop these anomalous Cut-Off Lows in the vicinity of the SE U.S. in it's long-range all summer and it never pans out, but we shall see.

[setexholmes]

So would this be more of North or western gulf threat if this stays weaker or stronger. I'm just curious what scenario puts this into Texas?

[BobHarlem]

I see pretty good rotation near 8N/39W this morning (red crosshairs in the image below). No convection there, but good rotation (on TPW loop, too). It still looks like it will be fighting dry air until it moves into the Caribbean, though, so I am somewhat doubtful it will become a tropical storm east of the Caribbean, certainly doubtful of a strong storm or hurricane east of the islands.

Looks like a fair chance it will threaten the ABC islands as a hurricane, which is rare. I'm not so sure it will ever enter the Gulf of Mexico, though. It may well be drawn northward toward the Bahamas. Threat to the central Gulf coast & NW Gulf is looking less possible. Much will depend on where it develops.

http://i67.tinypic.com/30m6bk0.jpg

I know it's still very early in the game but what's your current thoughts on potential threat for S. FL/SE FL?

Definitely could be a Florida threat. Florida and east through the Bahamas may be the most likely track.

That setup would bring some ripe conditions for prolonged rough surf serious erosion on the east coast even if it didn't go into Florida.

[psyclone]

One thing that seems very likely is that some portion of Cuba is going to get creamed (possibly Jamaica and or the Caymans as well). If it's central or eastern Cuba, the Bahamas would likely be next...but if it's western Cuba, Florida would likely get slammed thereafter. Both scenarios have plenty of historical climo support as we head into October so they seem reasonable to me.

[gatorcane]

Well with the GFS now recurving this east of Florida and well east of the GOM and the EC with a big recurve things might get a little quiet around here. Here in Florida that GFS run is way too close for comfort.

[Cunxi Huang]

[Hurricaneman]

Its definitely dealing with some sinking air with those outflow boundaries

[abajan]

Strange how there's been no mention of the Hebert Box as yet. It's pretty much certain that 97L would be a major cane by the time it gets to Hebert Box 2, assuming it goes there. Perhaps most of us aren't aware that there are two Hebert Boxes, not just the one in the Leeward Islands.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/780078484311990272

[HeeBGBz]

I know this is a long way out yet, but if this went north into the Gulf the timing puts it in the middle of Cruising the Coast. We are expecting thousands of folks and their fancy cars to come to the MS coastline. Could really screw things up.

[Evil Jeremy]

Favorable conditions, definate Caribbean threat and plausible SE-USA threat.... Just brought my tropics bookmark bar back out. It's been quite a season already for Florida, we don't need anything else, thank you.

[rickybobby]

Favorable conditions, definate Caribbean threat and plausible SE-USA threat.... Just brought my tropics bookmark bar back out. It's been quite a season already for Florida, we don't need anything else, thank you.

Port orange has received nothing bad. My lake still needs water and I need a few days off from grad school and work. 2004 was a amazing year. Lol

[abajan]

https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/780078484311990272

As usual, Levi's video was quite informative.

[cycloneye]

Up to 30%-90%

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area about
1500 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands are showing some
signs of organization. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form later this week while the low moves westward to west-
northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in the Windward Islands,
the southeastern and south-central Caribbean Sea, as well as the
northern coast of South America, should monitor the progress of this
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[cycloneye]

Good discussion by Jeff Masters.

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffM ... -caribbean

[Hurricaneman]

Good discussion by Jeff Masters.

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffM ... -caribbean

looking at the ensembles of the Euro on his page, the Euro ensembles are all over the place and cant be trusted but looking at the current motion I believe that Ajaban should prepare for a storm

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[Steve]

I know this is a long way out yet, but if this went north into the Gulf the timing puts it in the middle of Cruising the Coast. We are expecting thousands of folks and their fancy cars to come to the MS coastline. Could really screw things up.

I don't want to ever wish anything bad on Mississippi, so if it's Cruisin the Coast, yeah there will be all kinds of classic cars. However, if it was Scrapin' the Coast... ☠

Just kidding. Great Levi video this morning as per Storms Expert's link. He brings up the interesting idea of the rarity of storm interaction with the North Atlantic Coast of South America which is almost never seen. I think it will be slightly north of there, but it was notable.