ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[wxmann_91]

looks like it could be quite a bit farther west on this run of the Euro

Might end up further east. Starting the stall east of what the 0Z showed.

[Alyono]

looks like something historic for the ABC islands. Cannot ever remember a hurricane going stationary for more than a full day over them

[tarheelprogrammer]

ECMWF looks OTS which is 2 runs in a row and may be further east this run. May go east of Bermuda afterall.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm&runtime=2016092512&fh=168&xpos=0&ypos=89

[wxmann_91]

looks like something historic for the ABC islands. Cannot ever remember a hurricane going stationary for more than a full day over them

And northern Venezuela... Caracas has a history of flooding issues with TC's, much less ones that stall for over a day.

[stormreader]

looks like something historic for the ABC islands. Cannot ever remember a hurricane going stationary for more than a full day over them

Trying to remember, was it Ivan?? I think Ivan was pretty horrific down there somewhere in the southern Carribean before eventually moving up in the GOM toward Pensacola/Gulf Shores.

[gatorcane]

Looks to recurve even farther east on the 12Z ECMWF. Heading towards DR moving due north.

[Hurricaneman]

looks like it could be very similar to 0z also of note is the OP Euro has been at odds with its ensembles

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[CrazyC83]

looks like it could be very similar to 0z also of note is the OP Euro has been at odds with its ensembles

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Are there upper level maps available for the second week of October 1954? Curious to see how this compares to Hazel (at least in the initial northerly turn).

[Hurricaneman]

I also wonder if the Euro might be breaking down heights to much in its OP

[Hypercane_Kyle]

ECMWF looks OTS which is 2 runs in a row and may be further east this run. May go east of Bermuda afterall.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm&runtime=2016092512&fh=168&xpos=0&ypos=89

An incredibly premature statement, don't you think?

[pgoss11]

looks like it could be very similar to 0z also of note is the OP Euro has been at odds with its ensembles

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Are there upper level maps available for the second week of October 1954? Curious to see how this compares to Hazel (at least in the initial northerly turn).

That would be interesting to see. I would think for the Hazel type track the ridge would have to build back in forcing the storm west/northwest after the initial northerly turn.

[tarheelprogrammer]

ECMWF looks OTS which is 2 runs in a row and may be further east this run. May go east of Bermuda afterall.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm&runtime=2016092512&fh=168&xpos=0&ypos=89

An incredibly premature statement, don't you think?

Key word MAY. Lots can still happen.

[CrazyC83]

looks like it could be very similar to 0z also of note is the OP Euro has been at odds with its ensembles

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Are there upper level maps available for the second week of October 1954? Curious to see how this compares to Hazel (at least in the initial northerly turn).

That would be interesting to see. I would think for the Hazel type track the ridge would have to build back in forcing the storm west/northwest after the initial northerly turn.

Also it was able to grab the storm (at the time a small Cat 2) from way down at about 12N. Troughs shouldn't be getting that low even in mid-October, so there had to be an upper-level low somewhere.

[Alyono]

for the last time, this CANNOT recurve east of Bermuda when it makes the turn at 70W. Bermuda is 65W

[gatorcane]

DR takes a beating at 216 hours. Wow the Euro was almost to Nicaragua 2 days ago now it barely makes it out of the Eastern Caribbean before the recurve.

[psyclone]

there's no denying the trend at this point. storms usually find a way to go north. still plenty of time for it to shift back west though.

[WeatherEmperor]

for the last time, this CANNOT recurve east of Bermuda when it makes the turn at 70W. Bermuda is 65W

Thank you for saying this. Omg....


Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk

[CrazyC83]

for the last time, this CANNOT recurve east of Bermuda when it makes the turn at 70W. Bermuda is 65W

Also the ridge would have to break down for this to get east of 70W. I'm seeing models progging a strong ridge near and east of Bermuda.

[stormreader]

looks like it could be very similar to 0z also of note is the OP Euro has been at odds with its ensembles

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Are there upper level maps available for the second week of October 1954? Curious to see how this compares to Hazel (at least in the initial northerly turn).

Pretty sure there was a major trough/cold front that swooped Hazel up onto the NC Coast at that mostly N trajectory. As I remember Hazel's interaction with the trough (running right up it in the E US and into Canada) made it a particularly savage hybrid type storm with winds well above hurricane force hundreds of miles on into the Northeast in Canada. It was a major dipping trough. Not a ridge being eroded by a cut-off low.

[PTrackerLA]

Quite the east of Florida trend going on today. Will be interesting to see if the Euro ensembles shift well east too.