ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[wxmann_91]

for the last time, this CANNOT recurve east of Bermuda when it makes the turn at 70W. Bermuda is 65W

May be misunderstanding this, but I think when people say recurve east of Bermuda, they mean "east of Bermuda when this is at the same latitude as Bermuda."

Which, in fact, is what the 0Z and 12Z Euro shows, if you extrap past the end of their respective runs.

[ConvergenceZone]

Out to Sea isn't definite, but it is starting to look more likely. If the next run of the GFS continues a shift East, that will increase the probability even further. Boy did this board get quiet lol

[CrazyC83]

looks like it could be very similar to 0z also of note is the OP Euro has been at odds with its ensembles

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Are there upper level maps available for the second week of October 1954? Curious to see how this compares to Hazel (at least in the initial northerly turn).

Pretty sure there was a major trough/cold front that swooped Hazel up onto the NC Coast at that mostly N trajectory. As I remember Hazel's interaction with the trough (running right up it in the E US and into Canada) made it a particularly savage hybrid type storm with winds well above hurricane force hundreds of miles on into the Northeast in Canada. It was a major dipping trough. Not a ridge being eroded by a cut-off low.

That didn't turn Hazel initially though. Other than that, I can't think of any examples of hard turns in the southern Caribbean before November. I know some November hurricanes have shifted course abruptly from west to north in the southern Caribbean (1932, Greta, Michelle, Paloma, Ida, Tomas) but it's quite rare before then though.

[TimeZone]

I'd love a cane to head straight into Nova Scotia.

[Hurricaneman]

Half of the GFS ensembles still hit Florida so its still not a guarantee that this is going to recurve east of the US

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[tolakram]

1999 had Wrong Way Lenny in November, not sure anything came close do due north or even NE in Late Sept or early October.

Hopefully it won't get further east or PR is in play as well.

12Z Euro

[srainhoutx]

there's no denying the trend at this point. storms usually find a way to go north. still plenty of time for it to shift back west though.

Never trust the computer models beyond 3 to 4 days particularly when we're in a transitioning Hemispheric pattern. You'll get burned more often than not...

[toad strangler]

12z Euro with another quick hook.

[jlauderdal]

there's no denying the trend at this point. storms usually find a way to go north. still plenty of time for it to shift back west though.

the trend started before today as i pointed out this morning...some people didnt take that very well...it was like models only can be looked ar once its declared an invest

[OntarioEggplant]

This is not going to happen. The models have been consistently wrong with recurving systems too soon this year.

[jlauderdal]

This is not going to happen. The models have been consistently wrong with recurving systems too soon this year.

whats not going to happen?

[Hurricaneman]

The models don't fit the WPAC teleconnections which either this is one where the teleconnections don't fit or the cutoff low on the models could turn out to be bogus

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[otowntiger]

Trends are pointing to this missing conus altogether. It's amazing how quickly things changed.

[OntarioEggplant]

Trends are pointing to this missing conus altogether. It's amazing how quickly things changed.

The same thing happened with Hermine.

[ConvergenceZone]

Trends are pointing to this missing conus altogether. It's amazing how quickly things changed.

Yep, from a completely chaotic busy board yesterday to complete calm and quiet today.

[islandgirl45]

12z Euro with another quick hook.

Could you post an image of that?
(In fact, it would be great if everyone commenting on some noteworthy feature of a model would do likewise.)

[sma10]

for the last time, this CANNOT recurve east of Bermuda when it makes the turn at 70W. Bermuda is 65W

May be misunderstanding this, but I think when people say recurve east of Bermuda, they mean "east of Bermuda when this is at the same latitude as Bermuda."

Which, in fact, is what the 0Z and 12Z Euro shows, if you extrap past the end of their respective runs.

I interpret it differently. When people say "recurve east of Bermuda" i think the implication is that it recurves without affecting land (a la Karl, Lisa, etc). Or maybe more likely in this case, "recurve before reaching US". Who knows?

The point is, this tends to be a US-centric board (understandably) but the fact is that these latest trends may be good for the U.S. but absolutely awful for Hispaniola and South America. These are the kinds of scenarios that cause mass casualties.

[Hurricaneman]

if the EPS aka Euro ensembles are near Jamaica then this is not a done deal on an eastern recurve, even the GFS is starting to argue with itself

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[Steve]

The models don't fit the WPAC teleconnections which either this is one where the teleconnections don't fit or the cutoff low on the models could turn out to be bogus.

Agreed. But if there is a weird surface feature or a cutoff, who knows?

[wxmann_91]

for the last time, this CANNOT recurve east of Bermuda when it makes the turn at 70W. Bermuda is 65W

May be misunderstanding this, but I think when people say recurve east of Bermuda, they mean "east of Bermuda when this is at the same latitude as Bermuda."

Which, in fact, is what the 0Z and 12Z Euro shows, if you extrap past the end of their respective runs.

I interpret it differently. When people say "recurve east of Bermuda" i think the implication is that it recurves without affecting land (a la Karl, Lisa, etc). Or maybe more likely in this case, "recurve before reaching US". Who knows?

The point is, this tends to be a US-centric board (understandably) but the fact is that these latest trends may be good for the U.S. but absolutely awful for Hispaniola and South America. These are the kinds of scenarios that cause mass casualties.

But it doesn't have to recurve east of Bermuda to miss the U.S. And yes, you're completely right in that this is looking bad for South America and Hispaniola.