ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[gatorcane]

Keep in mind the Euro track is an outlier. Even the JMA has it moving towards Jamaica and that is a pretty strong depiction of this system for the normally conservative JMA. By the way cutoff low has moved out over Easterm CONUS so is a more progressive pattern (second image)

[N2FSU]

12z Euro with another quick hook.

Could you post an image of that?
(In fact, it would be great if everyone commenting on some noteworthy feature of a model would do likewise.)

[SFLcane]

ouch not getting bit again. sooo it's now both GFS and euro out to sea. Likely trend even further next few runs.

[N2FSU]

When the models are still in long range "windshield wiper" mode, I like to try to make a determination in my head when it's hit it's east and west limits, then watch for it to start narrowing the range. I'm going to guess that this 12z Euro run is the far east limit (or close to it) and it starts adjusting back west over the next few days. It may still miss the US, but my gut tells me such a sharp and early northerly turn isn't going to happen.

[Emmett_Brown]

The one thing the GFS, Euro and CMC agree on is the formation of a 500 mb cutoff low over the E US by about 90 hours from now, which is in the relatively near future (even Navgem and JMA show the cutoff low). So, the cutoff low is probably going to happen. How long it takes to eject is where all the models and longer range tracks differ.

[blp]

there's no denying the trend at this point. storms usually find a way to go north. still plenty of time for it to shift back west though.

the trend started before today as i pointed out this morning...some people didnt take that very well...it was like models only can be looked ar once its declared an invest

Looking at any trend past 7 days is fools gold. By that logic you have had three trends the last three days. Friday the trend was Nicaragua, Saturday it was W.Carribean and today recurve over Hispaniola. I could easily swing back ouside 7 days. Especially this year with they way the models have performed. If the ensembles all start showing what Euro ops run shows then maybe it can be believed. Plenty of time to sort this out.

Remember the Euro dropped development on yesterdays 00z ops run. So the Euro aint what used to be IMO.

[ConvergenceZone]

:double: ouch not getting bit again. sooo it's now both GFS and euro out to sea. Likely trend even further next few runs.

I don't think it will go east of Bermuda though, like a couple of folks are thinking. Hopefully Bermuda won't get hit, but I'm thinking it will be a good amount West of Bermuda

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Anyone remember the 144+ hr runs that took Hermine out to sea? Yea, that didn't verify.

The overall setup is extremely complex. The progression of cut-off lows over the CONUS are notoriously difficult to predict. Just ask anyone during severe weather season over the plains.

[USTropics]

Looking at the GFS ensembles from 06z to 12z, not much has changed but a wider spread on the 12z output. Main difference is the operational GFS has gone from being on the western side of the envelope to being on the eastern side now:

12z plots:


06z plots:


ensembles begin to diverge at about 220 hours, you have a quicker group recurving towards the NE with varying distance off the coast of Florida and a slower group that moves more northward:

[terstorm1012]

For those looking to do a comparison with 97L and Hazel, there are upper air analyses for October 1954 at this site: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ncepreanal/ I think the front it merged with caused serious flooding in illinois 3 days before Hazel made landfall--you can read a report (with some synoptic maps) here: http://www.isws.illinois.edu/pubdoc/ri/iswsri-27.pdf it's a PDF so give it some time to load.

here's another report too: http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/082 ... 0-0296.pdf (give it some time to load as it is a PDF.)
Hopefully people find this useful and interesting

[chaser1]

:double: ouch not getting bit again. sooo it's now both GFS and euro out to sea. Likely trend even further next few runs.

I don't think it will go east of Bermuda though, like a couple of folks are thinking. Hopefully Bermuda won't get hit, but I'm thinking it will be a good amount West of Bermuda

97L could go east of Bermuda... OR all the way to Brownsville Texas! I'd have VERY little confidence in any long range model depiction predicated on the evolution or placement of a cut-off low. I'm a huge advocate for following model consistency but I think it's inconceivable to think that we're not going to continue large swings from the models over the next 5 days. Whether implications suggest a "westward cruiser" or an E. Caribbean recurve, don't believe for a moment that any model that this far out will suddenly nail down this systems ultimate track, and never waiver from here on out. This story is very far from being played out

[USTropics]

It's the CMC, but ensembles have shifted westward compared to the 00z run:

12z ensembles run


00z ensembles run


My main point is we have imperfect models trying to resolve very complex atmospheric conditions (like the evolution of a cutoff low some 120+ hours out). Considering model accuracy this year especially, watching the ensembles for now will be more prudent then the operational runs imo.

[otowntiger]

Climatology and history in general are strongly in favor of an OTS scenario. So without any model evidence that is the odds on favorite. But now that models are apparently backing up climo it seems to me to be an even stronger case. Of course the odds are beaten every day so if anything can happen. We shall see.
I'm no expert just adding my two cents.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Nobody posting the HWRF?

Here it is from hour 90 to 126:

[otowntiger]

It's the CMC, but ensembles have shifted westward compared to the 00z run:

12z ensembles run


00z ensembles run


My main point is we have imperfect models trying to resolve very complex atmospheric conditions (like the evolution of a cutoff low some 120+ hours out). Considering model accuracy this year especially, watching the ensembles for now will be more prudent then the operational runs imo.

. Has the Euro always been so weak with this? . These images depict a very weak system. Barely a ts or maybe even a depression in that location.

[setexholmes]

You really can't call anything a trend right now, I've been watching this since it was on the global models page and this thing has shown anything from burying it into SA to a recurve east of Bermuda. I believe that we are still a ways out from knowing what it is going to do. We all need to keep an eye on this from South Texas to Florida.

[Hurricaneman]

Here's my thoughts, through 120 to 144hrs its seems cut and dry west track, but the ensembles after that seem to diverge into 2 separate groups on the GFS and the Euro ensembles are all over the place as well as the CMC ensembles so basically after 144hrs we have no idea where its going

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[blp]

Climatology and history in general are strongly in favor of an OTS scenario. So without any model evidence that is the odds on favorite. But now that models are apparently backing up climo it seems to me to be an even stronger case. Of course the odds are beaten every day so if anything can happen. We shall see.
I'm no expert just adding my two cents.

If it passes over the ABC islands as progged it would be extremely unlikely to follow the path the Euro suggests of recurve over Hispaniola. I could not find one case on record.

[BigB0882]

Can someone with knowledge of teleconnections tell us what this "should" do based on that? What is currently happening in the Pacific or is it too far out to call still?

Also, the HWRF is useless to me until we have a formed storm. Then I give more weight to it. In that gif the HWRF has this running right into a 1021 H. Is that even possible? Wouldn't the H need to be moving out of the way?

[USTropics]

It's the CMC, but ensembles have shifted westward compared to the 00z run:

12z ensembles run
http://i.imgur.com/gebBC3Y.png

00z ensembles run
http://i.imgur.com/bDR9KT1.png

My main point is we have imperfect models trying to resolve very complex atmospheric conditions (like the evolution of a cutoff low some 120+ hours out). Considering model accuracy this year especially, watching the ensembles for now will be more prudent then the operational runs imo.

. Has the Euro always been so weak with this? . These images depict a very weak system. Barely a ts or maybe even a depression in that location.

Those are the CMC ensemble members, basically each number represents an individual ensemble member's pressure. You won't see the resolution depicting a storm like an operational run because we're talking a totally different caliber of output.