ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricaneman]

With the way it looks right now at D-min what will it look like at D-max

[tarheelprogrammer]

HWRF has this thing moving west for the most part and is north of the ECMWF. Didn't it do good on the track of Hermine earlier this season?

[ThetaE]

Nobody posting the HWRF?

Here it is from hour 90 to 126:
http://i.imgur.com/lcblTqo.gif

I'm sure you've heard this before, but pre-genesis HWRF is sketchy. The 06z run developed both pieces of vorticity near 97L, and had some weird Fujiwara stuff happening between the two. And with Hermine, it had a 935-ish mb hurricane going into Tampa before a TS formed.

[tarheelprogrammer]

I am not so much talking about strength as I am track. HWRF was showing panhandle to Tampa for awhile. So, it did a good job on the track at least correct?

[ThetaE]

Yeah, I believe so.

[LarryWx]

HWRF has this thing moving west for the most part and is north of the ECMWF. Didn't it do good on the track of Hermine earlier this season?

There's reason to expect that this HWRF run would recurve it east of the CONUS if it were to go out further due to the very strong development very early as well as further north track in the Caribbean.

[SFLcane]

Everyone just went poof! Lol

[Medtronic15]

He we GO! Matthew coming very soon!

[wxman57]

I'm liking what I'm seeing as far as model trends (with my vacation to Florida coming up Oct 10-14). With the cold front dropping down into the Gulf this week, and the deepening trof over the eastern U.S., it may be hard for this storm to reach the Gulf or Florida. I'm not ready to rule out a Florida threat completely, but I'd say it's looking better for Florida.

[MGC]

97L is starting to get that tumbleweed look. Should close off in a day or two.....MGC

[sunnyday]

Once again, the scary threats and pictures of a storm hitting the US, esp Florida, came out earlier this week. Many people were glued to this board because of the predictions only to be told today of another possible (likely )recurve.
Thankfully, it is looking better for Fl, but this happens pretty much every time. Is the inaccuracy early on due to trouble with the models this year?

[hurricanedude]

Wxman....if it missed Florida to the East would that pretty much spare the entire east coast or would they still have some risk

[Hurricaneman]

I would say rip currents but thats it

[Blown Away]

TAFB still not tagging 97L with "Possible Tropical Cyclone" through 72 hours... It appears the NHC is still sticking with southerly route through central Caribbean... Something to consider looking at the abrupt NE recurves...
Sorry for double post...

[CrazyC83]

Wxman....if it missed Florida to the East would that pretty much spare the entire east coast or would they still have some risk

I'd watch to see if that trough gets stuck and tries to bend back or the ridge rebuilds...it may not be a simple out to sea even if it clears Florida...

[Frank2]

Hope it stays east - the models have not done well this year. I think the handful of models 35 years ago were more reliable short term than the 200-400 hr models of today...

[cycloneye]

wxman57,is the LLC reforming more north? What do your observations have?

[psyclone]

I have zero concern that this system (as of now) will be an issue for Florida but I remain convinced this could be "the storm" of 2016. there are a lot of folks potentially in harms way, in some cases with less than optimal infrastructure and increased heavy rain potential due to orographic enhancement. the potential here for significant calamity is very real depending on how this evolves.

[tolakram]

I still have my doubts about the strength of this storm, but it's more of a ... in the Atlantic, this year, really? ,,, feeling than one based on any science. I do hope it stays much weaker than forecast. So far all the intensification is out of the models reliable range.

[GCANE]

Very nice warm-core structure.
Broad, which indicates it will be somewhat slow to intensify.
But a good lapse rate from the sea surface to about 4km.
Convection likely to continue to fire and organize.