ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Blown Away]

Atlantic basin flip flopped, look at all the low pressure...

[Alyono]

just a reminder, the same models had Karl passing 200 miles east of Bermuda about 3 days before it narrowly missed them

a 200 mile west shift has big implications for New England

[CrazyC83]

A major storm hitting Haiti could kill 20000 people. If you call that a fish you should turn in your humanity card.

This could easily be the worst storm since...well...the name that it replaced (Mitch --> Matthew). If we go beyond that, worst since 1780.

[CrazyC83]

just a reminder, the same models had Karl passing 200 miles east of Bermuda about 3 days before it narrowly missed them

a 200 mile west shift has big implications for New England

Also the trough digging in around 252-288 is concerning...it has a Sandy-like feel at the end too...

[GeneratorPower]

A major storm hitting Haiti could kill 20000 people. If you call that a fish you should turn in your humanity card.

Perhaps the term "fish" is a juvenile term anyway.

[SeGaBob]

A major storm hitting Haiti could kill 20000 people. If you call that a fish you should turn in your humanity card.

Most people aren't that cold...Most people mean it won't affect the United States. It's a very relative term...

[Blown Away]

This would retire future Matthew... Very devastating run...

[CrazyC83]

This would retire future Matthew... Very devastating run...

I hate to say this, but the only way Matthew is not memorable is if another storm quickly forms and steals the name so that this becomes Nicole.

[SouthFLTropics]

I don't think that most people use the word "fish" in a disrespectful manner or mean any disrespect by it. I think it is more of a term of relativity and perspective to most people. A storm may be a fish to some but not to others. Anyway, back on topic.

[toad strangler]

Perhaps the term "fish" is a juvenile term anyway.

No it's not. The term "fish" absolutely has a place in this hobby when used correctly. Let's not over correct here...

[Emmett_Brown]

So, the big change in the models today vs yesterday seems to be 97L slowing down in the central Caribbean. Doesn't get as far west before recurving. Timing will be the key (as usual). It will be interesting to see the GFS 18z ensembles, since the ULL seemed to be a little further N on the 18z v the 12z

[Houstonia]

Just curious: does this earlier turn and shift in models "feel" more realistic? Is it a reasonable change? Or just another swing due to a storm that hasn't actually even formed yet?

Thanks.

[CrazyC83]

Just curious: does this earlier turn and shift in models "feel" more realistic? Is it a reasonable change? Or just another swing due to a storm that hasn't actually even formed yet?

Thanks.

I think the initial turn is pretty reasonable, but when it happens is uncertain. That is huge since a direct hit on Haiti would be beyond comprehension.

[tolakram]

Just curious: does this earlier turn and shift in models "feel" more realistic? Is it a reasonable change? Or just another swing due to a storm that hasn't actually even formed yet?

Thanks.

Globals are really good at getting the overall pattern, but bad at intensity. Hurricane models are very bad until a storm forms, then the HWRF has been very good at track and intensity. As the models get closer in range, under 150 hours or so, they get much more accurate. The euro usually leads the way by a run or so since it's better further out.

Since the global models have issues with intensity storms that never intensify can take a completely different path if the models predict they will intensify.

So in my opinion, if this intensifies as predicted then the turn seems realistic. If it doesn't I don't know, not sure what the lower level flow is like.

[Emmett_Brown]

Just curious: does this earlier turn and shift in models "feel" more realistic? Is it a reasonable change? Or just another swing due to a storm that hasn't actually even formed yet?

Thanks.

I think the initial turn is pretty reasonable, but when it happens is uncertain. That is huge since a direct hit on Haiti would be beyond comprehension.

Yep, and storm strength will play a role as well. The storm forms earlier on the models today, and that probably sends it poleward faster. If there is a delay in development, and it stays a fast moving wave for a while, it could meet the trough at a different longitude, changing the point of recurvature.

[ThetaE]

Perhaps this is a bit too analytical for a 200+ hour GFS run, but...

It would seem to me that the ridging pattern would be supportive of a closer pass to the US east coast, but there's a valid reason for such a turn:


Note the trough- the beige/orange color dip in the GOM- that comes through and helps push 97L NE. To me, this motion seems very fragile. Immediately after clearing Hispaniola/Cuba, 97L takes a more NW/NNW motion. Only after interacting with this trough feature does it begin to move NNE. If, say, the trough were to be a little further north, or if 97L were to cross over into the Bahamas a bit later, then it could very well end up missing this interaction and continuing on a NW/NNW trajectory. So, in sum, the slower 97L is to enter the Bahamas, the more likely it is to pose a threat to the US, assuming the cutoff low solution is correct, and 97L does indeed cross over into the Bahamas.

Of course, I'm still pretty inexperienced with PV maps, so my analysis may very well be wrong . Hopefully somebody else can verify what I've said.

[Hurricaneman]

Half of the 18zGFS ensembles want to head to Florida or even the eastern GOM while the other half are with the OP GFS so like I said this would split into 2 camps and those who are writing Florida off for this one might be a little premature

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=365

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[LarryWx]

Half of the 18zGFS ensembles want to head to Florida or even the eastern GOM while the other half are with the OP GFS so like I said this would split into 2 camps and those who are writing Florida off for this one might be a little premature

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Good post. There are actually more GEFS members threatening/hitting FL on this run (half as you said) than any GEFS run since (but not including) the 18Z GEFS run of yesterday. So, this is the most threatening run to FL of the last four.

[wxmann_91]

Perhaps this is a bit too analytical for a 200+ hour GFS run, but...

It would seem to me that the ridging pattern would be supportive of a closer pass to the US east coast, but there's a valid reason for such a turn:

[map]

Note the trough- the beige/orange color dip in the GOM- that comes through and helps push 97L NE. To me, this motion seems very fragile. Immediately after clearing Hispaniola/Cuba, 97L takes a more NW/NNW motion. Only after interacting with this trough feature does it begin to move NNE. If, say, the trough were to be a little further north, or if 97L were to cross over into the Bahamas a bit later, then it could very well end up missing this interaction and continuing on a NW/NNW trajectory. So, in sum, the slower 97L is to enter the Bahamas, the more likely it is to pose a threat to the US, assuming the cutoff low solution is correct, and 97L does indeed cross over into the Bahamas.

Of course, I'm still pretty inexperienced with PV maps, so my analysis may very well be wrong . Hopefully somebody else can verify what I've said.

The piece of energy behind the OH Valley closed low (which is what you refer to in your analysis) reaches pretty deep into the GOM. Not even close here. Also never really lifts out cleanly. Yesterday/Friday, this piece of energy was weak/sheared out, and the ridge built in after the OH Valley closed low ejected out, driving 97L west after an initial north turn. In yesterday's scenario, the timing would be important as a slower system would allow for more ridging to build back.

For the Euro, this initial piece of energy turns 97L north, but the OH Valley trof never goes away and ultimately it sweeps up 97L.

Either way, the chances of a U.S. landfall are decreasing dramatically. There's just too many outlets. A major hurricane has not impacted the U.S. for 11 years for a reason, and there's just too much threading the needle for this one to break that streak. However, the chances of a significant Caribbean impact continue to increase.

[GCANE]

COAMPS is not buying into the recurve as of the 12Z run.

Keeps it more a wave into the very bottom of the Carib, skirting the SA coast.

Just too close to land to get a southern infeed.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/w ... =999&scl=2