ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Bocadude85]

It's a little premature to be calling an all clear for the USA when we do not even have a developed storm yet, the models have been awful this year..anyone taking these 200+ hour forecasts as written in stone need to go back and read through the model threads of the prior storms this year. Almost every storm this year went WEST of the models predictions prior to a LLC being established.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS ensembles show many more over South Florida than previous runs today. In fact more head to South Florida than east of South Florida:

[PTrackerLA]

Yep 18z GFS ensemble mean heavily favors South Florida, interesting.

[gatorcane]

Wow not looking good for Haiti:

[stormlover2013]

I think it's crazy for people to say oh its looking good and it's not going to be a us hit!!!! Just yesterday morning it was Mexico and it's a recurve..we dont even have a storm yet models aren't even consistent 5 days out how in the heck are the going to be consistent 8 days out they aren't going to be...until something develops we won't get a good grip on what's going to happen..I hope it's a recurve but right now we have no clue

[wxmann_91]

It's a little premature to be calling an all clear for the USA when we do not even have a developed storm yet, the models have been awful this year..anyone taking these 200+ hour forecasts as written in stone need to go back and read through the model threads of the prior storms this year. Almost every storm this year went WEST of the model predictions prior to the Storm developing.

It's not an all clear but sometimes one has step back and take a look at the big picture.

A major hurricane has not hit the U.S. coastline for 11 years. Before Hermine, 11 years before the last hurricane of any intensity for Florida.

What does that suggest? In this current background state, it takes a damn near perfect setup to get a hurricane to strike the U.S. Squeaky clean.

A quick look at the 500mb map, even from yesterday, suggests that this is far from squeaky clean. Trof/closed low in the Ohio Valley. Narrow ridge that takes time to build back in (taking time is always a red flag in the model world).

Forecasts have to be made in context of climo and decadal trends. When a model latches onto a high-end signal that deviates significantly from climo and decadal trends, one must pause and think. If that signal subsequently weakens or reverses, that's usually right. It's just a probability thing: what is most likely going to be correct given what has been correct in the recent past?

[ronjon]

Yeah with that ensemble run 00z GFS operational may trend west into florida next run. Watch and wait time still. We're talking 8-9 days out - subtle trends in upper level pattern could shift track a couple of hundred miles or more this far out.

[GCANE]

Just about all the 18Z non-global models are not buying into the recurve.

Consensus has it runnig straight down the middle of the Carib.

[blp]

That run into Haiti is probably the worst run you can have anywhere. You are talking about massive loss of life. I dont wish that on anyone but other countries would be more prepared and have better construction. I hope it changes fast.

Based on the ensembles I think this will be furthest east it gets. I think you will probably start getting slight shifts west on the next runs.

[Gustywind]

Just about all the 18Z non-global models are not buying into the recurve.

Consensus has it runnig straight down the middle of the Carib.

Interresting, thanks . Do you have a link for this? Thanks you.

[LarryWx]

18Z GFS ensembles show many more over South Florida than previous runs today. In fact more head to South Florida than east of South Florida:

Gator,
I counted a whopping 9 of the 20 18Z GFS members actually hitting FL, which is as many as any GEFS run yet for 97L! Also, most of these are quite strong hits.

[GCANE]

18Z Runs

[GCANE]

Just about all the 18Z non-global models are not buying into the recurve.

Consensus has it runnig straight down the middle of the Carib.

Interresting, thanks . Do you have a link for this? Thanks you.

Sure thing, here's the link:
http://vmcluster.wright-weather.com/model_tracks.html

[Steve]

91, I wouldn't argue you are approaching the point correctly from a statistical standpoint because no one can argue reality and fact or what has happened. But that's also the past. 97L is in the future, and it's the tropics which are only somewhat predictable. It was a big 24 hour swing, particularly potential American implications. But no chance I'm sold on any solution. I said yesterday that I didn't really think we'd know about US impacts til next weekend. I'm staying with that acknowledging there were Yucatan solutions, Bahamian solutions, TX/LA border solutions, Florida solutions, Atlantic Coastal States solutions all within the past 48 hours. Recent history might argue against any impacts at all. But what seems odd about the last third of the season (at least to me), is if some of the October climate predictors are right, this won't be the last Caribbean threat by a long shot. Bastardi on yesterday's show said he thought the season would probably linger into November.

But as concerns 97L, only thing I'm fairly sure of is the islands get impacts. It's not clear which ones exactly. Tuesday or Wednesday look to be good opportunities for consolidation (Levi Cohen's video log from today as support backup) and it's anyone's bet after that. I'll still caution everyone that the WPAC situation doesn't favor a recurve without some other odd surface situation. I think there are equal chances of a fish storm as there are for a major continental threat somewhere. We will see.

[Gustywind]

Just about all the 18Z non-global models are not buying into the recurve.

Consensus has it runnig straight down the middle of the Carib.

Interresting, thanks . Do you have a link for this? Thanks you.

Sure thing, here's the link:
http://vmcluster.wright-weather.com/model_tracks.html

[USTropics]

18z GFS ensembles, two distinct camps. Operational is on the eastern side for the second straight run:

[Bocadude85]

It's a little premature to be calling an all clear for the USA when we do not even have a developed storm yet, the models have been awful this year..anyone taking these 200+ hour forecasts as written in stone need to go back and read through the model threads of the prior storms this year. Almost every storm this year went WEST of the model predictions prior to the Storm developing.

It's not an all clear but sometimes one has step back and take a look at the big picture.

A major hurricane has not hit the U.S. coastline for 11 years. Before Hermine, 11 years before the last hurricane of any intensity for Florida.

What does that suggest? In this current background state, it takes a damn near perfect setup to get a hurricane to strike the U.S. Squeaky clean.

A quick look at the 500mb map, even from yesterday, suggests that this is far from squeaky clean. Trof/closed low in the Ohio Valley. Narrow ridge that takes time to build back in (taking time is always a red flag in the model world).

Forecasts have to be made in context of climo and decadal trends. When a model latches onto a high-end signal that deviates significantly from climo and decadal trends, one must pause and think. If that signal subsequently weakens or reverses, that's usually right. It's just a probability thing: what is most likely going to be correct given what has been correct in the recent past?

I could not disagree with you more. Just because a major hurricane has not hit the USA in 11 years has absolutely nothing to do with the future of 97L. Climo can be used as a guideline and nothing more. And if you want to make a forecast based on climo please reference the storms which made abrupt north turns from the ABC islands in late September and later hit Hispanola or areas east of there. And as far as the steering pattern being depicted by the models goes it's about as clear as mud. Models have a notoriously diffult time forecasting cut off lows.

[Blown Away]

Nothing is certain, but climo & statistics will always be a safe bet...

[gatorcane]

18Z NAVGEM at 180 hours moving NW. Navgem has a direct hit on Haiti.

[centuryv58]

It's a little premature to be calling an all clear for the USA when we do not even have a developed storm yet, the models have been awful this year..anyone taking these 200+ hour forecasts as written in stone need to go back and read through the model threads of the prior storms this year. Almost every storm this year went WEST of the model predictions prior to the Storm developing.

It's not an all clear but sometimes one has step back and take a look at the big picture.

A major hurricane has not hit the U.S. coastline for 11 years. Before Hermine, 11 years before the last hurricane of any intensity for Florida.

What does that suggest? In this current background state, it takes a damn near perfect setup to get a hurricane to strike the U.S. Squeaky clean.

A quick look at the 500mb map, even from yesterday, suggests that this is far from squeaky clean. Trof/closed low in the Ohio Valley. Narrow ridge that takes time to build back in (taking time is always a red flag in the model world).

Forecasts have to be made in context of climo and decadal trends. When a model latches onto a high-end signal that deviates significantly from climo and decadal trends, one must pause and think. If that signal subsequently weakens or reverses, that's usually right. It's just a probability thing: what is most likely going to be correct given what has been correct in the recent past?

I could not disagree with you more. Just because a major hurricane has not hit the USA in 11 years has absolutely nothing to do with the future of 97L. Climo can be used as a guideline and nothing more. And if you want to make a forecast based on climo please reference the storms which made abrupt north turns from the ABC islands in late September and later hit Hispanola or areas east of there. And as far as the steering pattern being depicted by the models goes it's about as clear as mud. Models have a notoriously diffult time forecasting cut off lows.

I guess we were extra perfect here in FL in 2004/05 for all those hits. I think 10 years is a bit too short a period to use to speculate on ups or downs in storm numbers or steering patterns.