ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

i look latest gfs it look Haiti and Bahamas are doom if it right south fl and fl will get outter rain bands

I don't want to underscore the threat here but I don't think that the doom and gloom prognostications are warranted. While I understand the potential impacts it should be noted that Hispaniola and the Bahamas have weathered many severe storms in the past and they are still there. Is the potential for severe loss of life there? Absolutely. Is it likely? Maybe. But considering the performance of the models this year as well as the fact that we are looking at 7 days plus, I think it is a little early to say that places will be "doomed".

[floridasun78]

i look latest gfs it look Haiti and Bahamas are doom if it right south fl and fl will get outter rain bands

I don't want to underscore the threat here but I don't think that the doom and gloom prognostications are warranted. While I understand the potential impacts it should be noted that Hispaniola and the Bahamas have weathered many severe storms in the past and they are still there. Is the potential for severe loss of life there? Absolutely. Is it likely? Maybe. But considering the performance of the models this year as well as the fact that we are looking at 7 days plus, I think it is a little early to say that places will be "doomed".

like i say if it right gfs could be over doing as did other storm this year

[DESTRUCTION5]

i look latest gfs it look Haiti and Bahamas are doom if it right south fl and fl will get outter rain bands

I don't want to underscore the threat here but I don't think that the doom and gloom prognostications are warranted. While I understand the potential impacts it should be noted that Hispaniola and the Bahamas have weathered many severe storms in the past and they are still there. Is the potential for severe loss of life there? Absolutely. Is it likely? Maybe. But considering the performance of the models this year as well as the fact that we are looking at 7 days plus, I think it is a little early to say that places will be "doomed".

like i say if it right gfs could be over doing as did other storm this year

And the 00Z could show Hati as "saved". Pinpointing disaster anywhere at this point is ludacris.

[CDO62]

With all the discussions about the ECMWF not being as good as it was before the recent upgrade, is there any reason that they can't just revert back to the version before the upgrade? It seems to me the GFS is now the go to model and the Euro is taken with a grain of salt.

[AtlanticWind]

GFS has this near the bahamas in 9 days.9 days is just too far out to have a reliable solution for a tropical system
We still have several days before we know the general area this ends up.

[Steve]

I don't want to underscore the threat here but I don't think that the doom and gloom prognostications are warranted. While I understand the potential impacts it should be noted that Hispaniola and the Bahamas have weathered many severe storms in the past and they are still there. Is the potential for severe loss of life there? Absolutely. Is it likely? Maybe. But considering the performance of the models this year as well as the fact that we are looking at 7 days plus, I think it is a little early to say that places will be "doomed".

like i say if it right gfs could be over doing as did other storm this year

And the 00Z could show Hati as "saved". Pinpointing disaster anywhere at this point is ludacris.

Hahahahaha. Auto-correct? Lmao. I saw him once, and it was entertaining.

But you are right. It could be anywhere. Hopefully real intensification will be delayed. Unfortunately some of the intensity forecast models (for whatever they're worth) do ramp up to Cat 1 fairly soon. Prayers, luck and thoughts to everyone possibly affected

[Hammy]

With all the discussions about the ECMWF not being as good as it was before the recent upgrade, is there any reason that they can't just revert back to the version before the upgrade? It seems to me the GFS is now the go to model and the Euro is taken with a grain of salt.

GFS has performed as bad if not worse than the Euro--it's simply that the Euro is trending towards being as awful. That being said, as far as I know, both models tend to have more difficulty with intensity north of about 20-25N, rather than low-latitudes. I don't entirely believe the intensity forecasts at the moment, but they have my attention given that a-we have a physical disturbance that is already there, and b-this is a low-latitude system, and I don't even remember the last time they had this strong of a storm in the MDR from a wave that wasn't still over Africa.

[CrazyC83]

With all the discussions about the ECMWF not being as good as it was before the recent upgrade, is there any reason that they can't just revert back to the version before the upgrade? It seems to me the GFS is now the go to model and the Euro is taken with a grain of salt.

GFS has performed as bad if not worse than the Euro--it's simply that the Euro is trending towards being as awful. That being said, as far as I know, both models tend to have more difficulty with intensity north of about 20-25N, rather than low-latitudes. I don't entirely believe the intensity forecasts at the moment, but they have my attention given that a-we have a physical disturbance that is already there, and b-this is a low-latitude system, and I don't even remember the last time they had this strong of a storm in the MDR from a wave that wasn't still over Africa.

We haven't had a large major hurricane in the deep tropics really since Felix 2007, so this will be the first test for the models.

[CDO62]

Shouldn't the global models be able to handle smaller systems like Hermine with some sense of accuracy?

[AtlanticWind]

Shouldn't the global models be able to handle smaller systems like Hermine with some sense of accuracy?

After Hermine formed the models handled it pretty well

[Steve]

Early NAMs are out. Looks like a possible spin off the GA coast in a day or two that moves up the coast. Meanwhile the Great Lakes slides SE is moving toward the mid Atlantic by 84.

[Hurricaneman]

I think the cutoff will be farther east this run, it's already moving faster than 18z, that would probably mean farther west with 97L

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[tolakram]

GFS 0Z running. A little faster and just a bit stronger so far.

[tolakram]

Trend over the last 10 runs. Strong, weaker, now stronger.

[tolakram]

[Hurricaneman]

The cutoff in this run is weaker than in the 18z which would probably mean that less erosion will happen to the ridge and a farther west track

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=365

[tolakram]

Significantly stronger than the last few runs.

[SeGaBob]

Let's see what kind of shift we get now.

[tolakram]

delete previous post, forgot to copy back the disclaimer

The disclaimer is optional starting this year, FYI. Up to you if you want to use it.

[blp]

What if that cut low stalls out or stays further west it may not erode the ridge as quickly and draw the storm further west. The cut low is very different than a trough could be erratic.