ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[WeatherEmperor]

The cutoff in this run is weaker than in the 18z which would probably mean that less erosion will happen to the ridge and a farther west track

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=365

I am not sure about that. Im looking at the 500mb charts and the 18z and 00z look almost the same


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[tolakram]

Ohio valley low really digging down further this run.

[PTrackerLA]

500mb pattern out to 102 hours looks very similar to 18z. Matthew is a bit further north this run and also stronger.

[Hurricaneman]

Going about the same way as 18Z it looks like

[tolakram]

run so far

[WeatherEmperor]

Should start N turn anytime now...




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[PTrackerLA]

Could be further east this run just by how deep the upper low is digging. Could hit DR instead of Haiti.

[sma10]

The cutoff in this run is weaker than in the 18z which would probably mean that less erosion will happen to the ridge and a farther west track

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Looks about the same, if not even marginally stronger. Would be shocked if this produces a further west track.

[Hurricaneman]

The cutoff in this run is weaker than in the 18z which would probably mean that less erosion will happen to the ridge and a farther west track

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Looks about the same, if not even marginally stronger. Would be shocked if this produces a further west track.

Its pretty much at odds with it ensembles then, this still needs to be watched

[tolakram]

500mb trend. You can see the low snap into place once down below 15 hours.

[PTrackerLA]

NNW turn 138hrs

[tolakram]

NW movement starts at 138 hours.

[tolakram]

Unfortunately the GFS is really bad at 150+ so no telling where exactly this is going. I'm done for the night.

[Hurricaneman]

looks to have stopped the east trend for now, same spot as 18z

[HurricaneFrances04]

I find it interesting that the models blow this thing up in the E. Caribbean. It has been a while since we've seen a strong hurricane in the Caribbean (Dean/Felix in 07...unless I'm missing one since then?). Typically the E. Caribbean has been a death trap for disturbances.

ETA: There was Tomas in 2010, and Omar in 2008 (though Omar was a late season west-east Caribbean tracker).

[Blown Away]

Haiti mauls it...

[sma10]

The East trend may have stopped but with the degradation of the high on the past several runs, I do not see how this system gets past 75 W. I feel for Haiti/DR right now - doesn't look good for them. With any luck maybe there will be some further east shifts in future runs.

[sma10]

The cutoff in this run is weaker than in the 18z which would probably mean that less erosion will happen to the ridge and a farther west track

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Looks about the same, if not even marginally stronger. Would be shocked if this produces a further west track.

Its pretty much at odds with it ensembles then, this still needs to be watched

We won't know if it is still at odds until we see the 0z ensembles

[Blown Away]

Landfalls as @Cat 4 near Haiti/DR border, which is E from 18z, and comes out as a TS/Cat 1... Horrible run, even worse than 18z...

[Hurricaneman]

Any faster than the 0zGFS and the Carolinas get it

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.