ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Blown Away]

Slightly W of 18Z near mid Atlantic states...

[Hurricaneman]

Slightly W of 18Z near mid Atlantic states...

I never thought that maybe the NEUS would have to watch this shows what the weather can do

[sma10]

FWIW, the CMC, the original trendsetter (!) on this early N turn a couple days ago, is quite similar to Gfs on track and timing, but comes a tad further W to about 77W. Spares Haiti, but clips Jamaica and clocks Eastern Cuba

[Hurricaneman]

The one thing is this is almost a Hazel like track except its more NNE than NNW

[AtlanticWind]

What are the chances that this is exactly where the storm ends up and 7 or 8 days ,a few hundred miles in either direction
Will make all the difference

[Bocadude85]

Any faster than the 0zGFS and the Carolinas get it

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

I don't think we are done with model swings yet. I still think the models will trend west again in the coming days, almost every storm this year has had a similar trend with the models going way east only to trend back to earlier solutions a few days later.

[SouthFLTropics]

What time do the ensembles run?

[Bocadude85]

Looking at the 0z GFS a little closer it actually trended west after its initial Haiti landfall when compared to the 18z GFS.

[sma10]

Any faster than the 0zGFS and the Carolinas get it

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

I don't think we are done with model swings yet. I still think the models will trend west again in the coming days, almost every storm this year has had a similar trend with the models going way east only to trend back to earlier solutions a few days later.

Boca, good point about the model tendencies this season and we're all going to be looking for that trend. But I think it's really up to that cutoff. If it really is going to erode that ridge, then there's only so far west this system can go.

[Blown Away]

Crazy, goes NNW from deep tropics to NNE up to Canada... Long mostly northerly track and the only abrupt turn was deep in the tropics...

[Bocadude85]

Any faster than the 0zGFS and the Carolinas get it

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

I don't think we are done with model swings yet. I still think the models will trend west again in the coming days, almost every storm this year has had a similar trend with the models going way east only to trend back to earlier solutions a few days later.

Boca, good point about the model tendencies this season and we're all going to be looking for that trend. But I think it's really up to that cutoff. If it really is going to erode that ridge, then there's only so far west this system can go.

I agree that the cutoff is going to be the wildcard. But what if the ridge doesn't erode quite as much and the cutoff isn't as strong a forecast and we get a system heading NW instead of NNW? A NW heading would put the east coast at risk.

[Steve]

A cutoff and a surface low, maybe 2? That's what the GFS shows. The run is almost plausible but you'd think it would be west of where it brings up Matthew at that point.

[Bocadude85]

The 0z HWRF so far is much faster then the 18Z...it's about 3 degrees west of the 18Z and weaker also.

[LarryWx]

0Z GEFS shows a much lower threat to FL vs the 18Z GEFS with only 3 of 20 members hitting FL on the 0Z GEFS vs a whopping 9 members hitting FL on the 18Z GEFS.

[Hurricaneman]

0Z GEFS shows a much lower threat to FL vs the 18Z GEFS with only 3 of 20 members hitting FL on the 0Z GEFS vs a whopping 9 members hitting FL on the 18Z GEFS.

but they put the carolinas and the NEUS on alert also seems so Hazel like with its steering flow

[SFLcane]

0Z GEFS shows a much lower threat to FL vs the 18Z GEFS with only 3 of 20 members hitting FL on the 0Z GEFS vs a whopping 9 members hitting FL on the 18Z GEFS.

From GOM to OTS in 24hrs... Don't get caught up in model hype.

[USTropics]

00z ECMWF out to 96 hours, more north of the past two runs:

[wxmann_91]

I don't think we are done with model swings yet. I still think the models will trend west again in the coming days, almost every storm this year has had a similar trend with the models going way east only to trend back to earlier solutions a few days later.

Boca, good point about the model tendencies this season and we're all going to be looking for that trend. But I think it's really up to that cutoff. If it really is going to erode that ridge, then there's only so far west this system can go.

I agree that the cutoff is going to be the wildcard. But what if the ridge doesn't erode quite as much and the cutoff isn't as strong a forecast and we get a system heading NW instead of NNW? A NW heading would put the east coast at risk.

A blocking ridge to the east ensures this keeps going north instead of turning northeast immediately. But a blocking ridge to the north is what will turn this west of north past Hispaniola.

There are no signs that such a blocking ridge will develop.

This is assuming the GFS is correct. A scenario like the 12Z Euro guarantees there no way this even sniffs 75*W.

[LarryWx]

The 0Z Euro has it a bit further west at hour 120 than the westernmost point of the 12Z Euro fwiw.

[AtlanticWind]

Euro further west so far this run