ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[LarryWx]

Euro further west so far this run

The 0Z Euro is some 200 miles west of the 12Z Sun run. We have to watch and see if this is the start of a new trend back west on future runs.

Edit: It is even a little west of the 0Z Sun run.

[Kingarabian]

Euro keeps a stronger ridge through 168 hrs compared to the past 2 runs. But looks like it's eroding and there is a window to escape.

[LarryWx]

Euro keeps a stronger ridge through 168 hrs compared to the past 2 runs. But looks like it's eroding and there is a window to escape.

But if it escapes the CONUS, it will be doing so a good bit further west than the prior run and even west of the run from 24 hours ago. This run is now 200 miles west of the prior run and 100 miles west of the run from 24 hours ago. What we have to watch for is whether or not this is the start of a new trend back west. IF so, we'll probably see runs go further and further west little by little to the point which it may no longer be able to escape far enough east to miss the CONUS on later runs.
Definitely bears watching.

[AJC3]

Euro keeps a stronger ridge through 168 hrs compared to the past 2 runs. But looks like it's eroding and there is a window to escape.

But if it escapes the CONUS, it will be doing so a good bit further west than the prior run and even west of the run from 24 hours ago. This run is now 200 miles west of the prior run and 100 miles west of the run from 24 hours ago. What we have to watch for is whether or not this is the start of a new trend back west. IF so, we'll probably see runs go further and further west little by little to the point which it may no longer be able to escape far enough east to miss the CONUS on later runs.
Definitely bears watching.

It's a little disquieting to see the ECM build something of a H50 "thumb ridge" north of 97L between H194 and H216. I don't recall seeing that the last couple of runs. Probably not enough to keep it from breaking through, but 8-9 days out I'm not fond of seeing that in the usually more reliable guidance.

[AtlanticWind]

Pretty good shift west on this run ,new trend starting?

[LarryWx]

^The 216 hour map shows ridging actually expanding back above this further west. This looks like it may very well NOT be going to escape the CONUS. Even if it does, this run may be a warning sign of a reintroduction of danger to the CONUS on future Euro runs.

[Kingarabian]

Euro keeps a stronger ridge through 168 hrs compared to the past 2 runs. But looks like it's eroding and there is a window to escape.

But if it escapes the CONUS, it will be doing so a good bit further west than the prior run and even west of the run from 24 hours ago. This run is now 200 miles west of the prior run and 100 miles west of the run from 24 hours ago. What we have to watch for is whether or not this is the start of a new trend back west. IF so, we'll probably see runs go further and further west little by little to the point which it may no longer be able to escape far enough east to miss the CONUS on later runs.
Definitely bears watching.

Agreed.

Although through 216hrs the ridge looks to be building back in.

[Kingarabian]

Pretty good shift west on this run ,new trend starting?

Careful with the way you use the word "trend". Nearly got crucified last night for suggesting that the models may be trending to a track east .

[sma10]

Yes and a noticeable Western component on h240 along the north coast of cuba. Interesting run.

[AtlanticWind]

Turned wnw at the end of run ,wow

[TheStormExpert]

00z Euro 240hrs.

[Kingarabian]

Yes and a noticeable Western component on h240 along the north coast of cuba. Interesting run.

Yeah. But also yet another cutoff low diving.

[AJC3]

The 00Z run shows that, as is often the case, there still remains a boat load of uncertainty in the evolution of the pattern over the eastern CONUS/western Atlantic out at days 8-10. Some interesting days ahead for sure. We await the Euro ensembles...

[sma10]

Yes and a noticeable Western component on h240 along the north coast of cuba. Interesting run.

Yeah. But also yet another cutoff low diving.

True. I was thinking that the westerly component might just be temporary due to that additional feature rolling into the Western gulf. Ah... but that is all 10 days from now. Who really knows?

[LarryWx]

Euro keeps a stronger ridge through 168 hrs compared to the past 2 runs. But looks like it's eroding and there is a window to escape.

But if it escapes the CONUS, it will be doing so a good bit further west than the prior run and even west of the run from 24 hours ago. This run is now 200 miles west of the prior run and 100 miles west of the run from 24 hours ago. What we have to watch for is whether or not this is the start of a new trend back west. IF so, we'll probably see runs go further and further west little by little to the point which it may no longer be able to escape far enough east to miss the CONUS on later runs.
Definitely bears watching.

It's a little disquieting to see the ECM build something of a H50 "thumb ridge" north of 97L between H194 and H216. I don't recall seeing that the last couple of runs. Probably not enough to keep it from breaking through, but 8-9 days out I'm not fond of seeing that in the usually more reliable guidance.

No, it wasn't there the last two runs, when troughing was deepening to the north of 97L. The heights on this run are some 15 dm higher to the north of 97L vs the prior run and about 10 dm higher than the run from 24 hours ago.

[AtlanticWind]

Euro jumping a few hundred miles in 10 day forecast just shows we don't know where this will end up yet
We will have a better idea in 3 or 4 days

[AtlanticWind]

NAVGEM has 97l just south of the keys at the end of run

[AutoPenalti]

That random cutoff low appeared out of nowhere. Pretty interested to see if there is some sort of trend that ensues.

[jlauderdal]

Pretty good shift west on this run ,new trend starting?

Careful with the way you use the word "trend". Nearly got crucified last night for suggesting that the models may be trending to a track east .

its a discussion board, 24 hours i had a few rip me because i mentioned trend and then they went on to say i was only looking at one run which was wrong, i wasnt...anyway, too many players on the board beyond 5 days for any model consistency so 72H is about as far out as we will get any continuity

[USTropics]

The ECMWF and GFS ensembles could not disagree more at 240 hours, CMC has a widespread of ideas:

240 hours 00z ECMWF:


240 hours 00z GFS:


240 hours 00z CMC: