ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

The flow doesn't look that much different at 500 mb. Here's the 10-day Euro 500mb heights in 10m increments, along with the 500mb winds. Deep low over Arkansas is moving steadily eastward, suggesting the storm will miss Florida to the east.

[tolakram]

latest saved rgb loop

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/780411941026168832

[SFLcane]

Thx 57 wow this is some luck in terms of the US. The Caribbean maybe a different story

[gatorcane]

The flow doesn't look that much different at 500 mb. Here's the 10-day Euro 500mb heights in 10m increments, along with the 500mb winds. Deep low over Arkansas is moving steadily eastward, suggesting the storm will miss Florida to the east.

http://i65.tinypic.com/2it4od2.jpg

But how much do you trust the 10 day Euro? That cutoff low may not longer be there or be further west....lots of model watching over the next several days if not longer until things are more clear.

The ECMWF ensembles, NAVGEM, and Canadian ensembles leave a lot of doubt on the future of this system.

[Alyono]

that EC also screams threat to NC through New England as a very rapidly moving system

[centuryv58]

that EC also screams threat to NC through New England as a very rapidly moving system

Are you in the east or west camp yet??

[SFLcane]

57 why are the euro ensembles way west of op? Some over Florida and gulf.

[tolakram]

Different visible loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20NHE&lat=15&lon=-28&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=600&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=12&mapcolor=yellow

[wxman57]

57 why are the euro ensembles way west of op? Some over Florida and gulf.

Looks like the members that don't develop it for another 5 days take it farther west. I think it'll be a hurricane by then, likely a strong one.

[Bocadude85]

57 why are the euro ensembles way west of op? Some over Florida and gulf.

Looks like the members that don't develop it for another 5 days take it farther west. I think it'll be a hurricane by then, likely a strong one.

Are you ready to give a all clear for Florida yet? I have a trip planned to Cancun leaving on October 6th.

[Emmett_Brown]

57 why are the euro ensembles way west of op? Some over Florida and gulf.

Looks like the members that don't develop it for another 5 days take it farther west. I think it'll be a hurricane by then, likely a strong one.

Ahh.. makes sense... the whole weaker/wester farmer's wisdom. So, now we have to watch to see if 2016 conditions finally become favorable enough to allow a major cane to form in the deep tropics, which can and will ultimately have some affect on steering.

[Alyono]

57 why are the euro ensembles way west of op? Some over Florida and gulf.

many of the EC ensembles take 5 days to develop this

[tolakram]

I'm being a stuck record here but the Euro blows this thing up right along the north coast of South America. When has this ever happened before and what exactly are the conditions that will make this setup so favorable as to negate the dry air issues that normally entangle a developing storm in the south east Caribbean?

[Alyono]

I'm being a stuck record here but the Euro blows this thing up right along the north coast of South America. When has this ever happened before and what exactly are the conditions that will make this setup so favorable as to negate the dry air issues that normally entangle a developing storm in the south east Caribbean?

Ivan, Emily, Felix, Cesar

Rapid intensification can happen close to South America

[abajan]

57 why are the euro ensembles way west of op? Some over Florida and gulf.

Looks like the members that don't develop it for another 5 days take it farther west. I think it'll be a hurricane by then, likely a strong one.

Are you ready to give a all clear for Florida yet? I have a trip planned to Cancun leaving on October 6th.

I'm afraid it's simply not possible for anyone to state that at this point.

[jlauderdal]

I'm being a stuck record here but the Euro blows this thing up right along the north coast of South America. When has this ever happened before and what exactly are the conditions that will make this setup so favorable as to negate the dry air issues that normally entangle a developing storm in the south east Caribbean?

very tough to intensify a hurricane if it gets too close to SA..way to much dry air coming off the land mass into the system

[MississippiWx]

57 why are the euro ensembles way west of op? Some over Florida and gulf.

Looks like the members that don't develop it for another 5 days take it farther west. I think it'll be a hurricane by then, likely a strong one.

Or the fact that the 500mb map on the ensembles is 180 degrees different from the operational. No cut-off low over the South. The Euro is bad about putting in random cut-off lows in the long range.

[Alyono]

a circulation seems to be forming now. Still broad. However, I fully expect a tropical storm by tomorrow

[cycloneye]

a circulation seems to be forming now. Still broad. However, I fully expect a tropical storm by tomorrow

Good timing for Recon.