ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Anyone happen to see the 00z UKMET? That model is always so hard to find.

[SFLcane]

European ensembles either affect Florida or are in the gulf.

[gatorcane]

Many Canadian ensembles are impacting Florida with several going to the Gulf.

[Alyono]

Anyone happen to see the 00z UKMET? That model is always so hard to find.

surprisingly weak and into South America

[tolakram]

from: http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

[OntarioEggplant]

The GFS is already backtracking westward from its easternmost output. We've seen this time and again with the GFS being recurve happy and having to correct for it. Just look at Karl and Hermine.

The Euro seems to want to push closer to its ensembles which are still in decent disagreement. Long way to go before anything is nailed down.

[Bocadude85]

6Z HWRF is SW of the 0Z and stronger

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=97L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2016092606&fh=126&xpos=0&ypos=100

[SouthFLTropics]

6Z HWRF is SW of the 0Z and stronger

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=97L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2016092606&fh=126&xpos=0&ypos=100

It's a whole 2 degrees further south in Latitude. I'd say that is pretty significant. My gut feeling right now is that this may end close enough to FL to make us feel real uneasy down here and then may pull out at the last minute, ala Floyd. We've seen time and time again the GFS break down ridges too soon. This is a complicated setup for sure. The other X factor is the interaction with Hispaniola that comes into play.

[SouthFLTropics]

6Z HWRF is SW of the 0Z and stronger

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=97L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2016092606&fh=126&xpos=0&ypos=100

It also looks like the HWRF here is about 12 to 18 hours faster than the GFS from 06z.

[ConvergenceZone]

I wonder if the prediction that this is going to be quite a bit weaker is factoring into these westward shifts?

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/780417787353264128

[chaser1]

As 97L approaches 70W in a few days, I'd say there's an equal chance of it being Cat. 3 hurricane, as there is of it simply being a Tropical Depression - #modelconfidencenot

[blp]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/780417787353264128

I agree with that. There is too many factors in play still not only track wise but with the system itself. You still have some models insisting on this making a very close approach to SA which could interfere with development. Now you have a very complicated forecast developing in the mid to long range with possibly two cut off lows developing and skinny ridges building in between. This is far from settled and probably won't be clear until it is in the Caribbean south of Hispaniola.

[chaser1]

Just like always, there's so much longer term track variability that is dependant on timing of events. How soon will 97L become a fairly deep tropical storm? Will this system remain an open wave or broad Tropical Depression while entering the Caribbean? Will a slower or faster moving 97L over the next 2 days impact timing interaction with Cut-off lows as the system approaches 60W, or the later timing with a strong CONUS shortwave as a potential hurricane nears approx. 75W? Being able to lock down a solid 72 hour forecast for position and intensity sure would go a long way to project out 2-3 days further beyond that. Problem is, I don't even have that much confidence in either the GFS or EURO to be able to feel comfortable in a 72 hour forecast right now. My guess is that Jamaica and E. Cuba will be at greatest threat, but I wouldn't bet the farm on anything yet.

[SFLcane]

6Z HWRF is SW of the 0Z and stronger

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=97L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2016092606&fh=126&xpos=0&ypos=100

SW? That's a clear recurve heading NW at 126. Again Haiti

[tolakram]

If you look at both the GFS and Euro upper air plots 144 hours seems to be the magic number. Below that both are fairly consistent, above you have features appearing, moving, vanishing.

Here's the euro example. Ohio Valley low appears at 144 hours.

[HurrMark]

6Z HWRF is SW of the 0Z and stronger

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=97L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2016092606&fh=126&xpos=0&ypos=100

SW? That's a clear recurve heading NW at 126. Again Haiti

Actually, looks like it will miss Hispaniola to the east...starting to see an eastward turn and it is at the longitude of the eastern tip of the island...PR would have issues in this case.

[Bocadude85]

6Z HWRF is SW of the 0Z and stronger

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=97L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2016092606&fh=126&xpos=0&ypos=100

SW? That's a clear recurve heading NW at 126. Again Haiti

Its still southwest of the Oz run. The OZ run had the system landfalling on the extreme SE tip of the DR.

[Medtronic15]

Amazing now!

[CrazyC83]

12Z GFS is now running.