ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Blown Away]

European ensembles either affect Florida or are in the gulf.

Can you post that map?

[HurrMark]

Keep in mind that per Phil Klotzbach, only 9 major hurricanes have hit the US in October (and obviously none in November). So less than once a decade...and only two during the entire 1995-2012(?) active period. So while not impossible, it is quite rare. If I were to bet on this, and this is not a 100% confident bet, I would think that the trends will continue and this will stay east of Florida. The question is if it will avoid the US completely. If it somehow gets to 75W, as the 00Z Euro suggests, then it is possible that the Northeast could be impacted by this (albeit probably not as a major hurricane or even a fully tropical system) given the steering currents.

[Bocadude85]

Keep in mind that per Phil Klotzbach, only 9 major hurricanes have hit the US in October (and obviously none in November). So less than once a decade...and only two during the entire 1995-2012(?) active period. So while not impossible, it is quite rare. If I were to bet on this, and this is not a 100% confident bet, I would think that the trends will continue and this will stay east of Florida. The question is if it will avoid the US completely. If it somehow gets to 75W, as the 00Z Euro suggests, then it is possible that the Northeast could be impacted by this (albeit probably not as a major hurricane or even a fully tropical system) given the steering currents.

Since 1851 32 hurricanes have made landfall in Florida in the month of October and 17 major hurricanes have impacted the USA in the month of October since 1851.

[HurrMark]

Keep in mind that per Phil Klotzbach, only 9 major hurricanes have hit the US in October (and obviously none in November). So less than once a decade...and only two during the entire 1995-2012(?) active period. So while not impossible, it is quite rare. If I were to bet on this, and this is not a 100% confident bet, I would think that the trends will continue and this will stay east of Florida. The question is if it will avoid the US completely. If it somehow gets to 75W, as the 00Z Euro suggests, then it is possible that the Northeast could be impacted by this (albeit probably not as a major hurricane or even a fully tropical system) given the steering currents.

Since 1851 32 hurricanes have made landfall in Florida in the month of October and 17 major hurricanes have impacted the USA in the month of October since 1851.

Sorry, I meant since 1900.

[SFLcane]

[tolakram]

12Z GFS, so far very similar to 6Z run

[tolakram]

Trend GIF for hitting the Islands

[tolakram]

500mb anom trend

[SeGaBob]

It might go back east this run. Just a guess

[tolakram]

[CrazyC83]

Keep in mind that per Phil Klotzbach, only 9 major hurricanes have hit the US in October (and obviously none in November). So less than once a decade...and only two during the entire 1995-2012(?) active period. So while not impossible, it is quite rare. If I were to bet on this, and this is not a 100% confident bet, I would think that the trends will continue and this will stay east of Florida. The question is if it will avoid the US completely. If it somehow gets to 75W, as the 00Z Euro suggests, then it is possible that the Northeast could be impacted by this (albeit probably not as a major hurricane or even a fully tropical system) given the steering currents.

US majors in October:

1873 (SW FL)
1877 (FL Panhandle)
1886 (SW LA)
1893 Chenier Caminada (LA)
1893 (SC)
1898 (GA)
1906 (S FL)
1909 (S FL)
1921 Tampa Bay (W/N FL)

In the Recon era:
1944 (S/W FL)
1950 King (SE FL)
1954 Hazel (NC/SC)
1964 Hilda (LA)
1995 Opal (FL Panhandle)
2005 Wilma (S FL)

[tolakram]

A little SW and stronger than 6Z run.

[SouthFLTropics]

A little SW and stronger than 6Z run.
[im g]http://i.imgur.com/1Lc210x.png[/img]

Based on the 500 charts the turn to the NW and NNW should commence soon.

[tolakram]

Starting NW movement at 120 hours.

[gatorcane]

Yep the GFS is turning the cyclone NW between hours 120 and 126, looks very similar to the 06Z run so far. In fact it then moves it due north now instead of NW through 138 hours

[tolakram]

North at 126

[Blown Away]

Looks a little E of 06Z...

[gatorcane]

looks even NNE towards DR now at 138 to 144 hours.

[tolakram]

Still going to take it over Hispaniola.

[tolakram]