ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[HurrMark]

Although the GFS has been questionable the last few years, this would not be surprising. The pattern has definitely shifted to a more fall-like pattern across the east. I can envision this to be like a Tomas (albeit one month early and slightly east) or a Flora. I also would not let your guard down if in PR...

[Alyono]

Some MU ensembles indicating a hit on the Mid Atlantic or New England

The operational is on its own, again. Yes, it's BOGUS

[WeatherEmperor]

12z Gfdl shifts way west.




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[HurrMark]

Some MU ensembles indicating a hit on the Mid Atlantic or New England

The operational is on its own, again. Yes, it's BOGUS

IF this could somehow get to 73-75W, I can see that because I don't see much of a big easterly component once it makes the turn. But very hard to say at this point where the turn will be.

[xcool22]

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 12.9N 64.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.09.2016 72 12.9N 64.5W 1007 36
0000UTC 30.09.2016 84 12.5N 67.1W 1002 39
1200UTC 30.09.2016 96 11.9N 69.4W 997 47
0000UTC 01.10.2016 108 11.5N 71.4W 993 49
1200UTC 01.10.2016 120 11.8N 72.9W 1000 45
0000UTC 02.10.2016 132 11.9N 75.0W 998 38
1200UTC 02.10.2016 144 12.8N 75.7W 988 56

[SouthFLTropics]

12z Gfdl shifts way west.




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GFDL takes longer to develop this, therefore continues the westerly track.

[tolakram]

Was reviewing the Hermine thread ... the one big mistake I think I made there was even paying attention to the GFS much past 120 hours. In this case the GFS already has a hurricane by 120 hours so that is a big difference from the last fail. Something similar can be said for the Euro, though it seems to be more reliable out to 144. Each storm is different, and the time of season makes for a difference as well, mainly just talking out loud here ... food for thought.

Euro starts in just a few.

[GeneratorPower]

This is just an amateur weather watcher's opinion concerning the trends I'm seeing. I think this has Yucatan Channel written all over it.

[CrazyC83]

Is it just me or is this sharp of a recurve when a storm is this far south, somewhat unusual?

Its not you, IMO. Something strange, or one for the books.

The only pre-November storm I can think of that did that was Hazel in 1954.

[CrazyC83]

Some MU ensembles indicating a hit on the Mid Atlantic or New England

The operational is on its own, again. Yes, it's BOGUS

Which I think is completely reasonable with the ridge to the northeast. If a trough comes through, the setup isn't that different from Sandy.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

In my opinion the first 3-4 days out track is more certain after that this could end up anywhere from between Central America to East of the Bahamas. Basically anything between a (moving west to east) Dean or Lili or Ivan or Wilma or Hazel or Joaqiun (after moving north of the Caribbean) path could take place. We all want certainty but in this sort of set up certainty is nearly impossible on track after 72 hours out.
A fair chunk of the islands of the Eastern Caribbean Lesser Antilles/Windward Islands will likely see squalls with tropical storm force wind gusts especially with the pressure gradient north of this southerly riding system as it moves through, and if it really ramps up before the islands a high end tropical storm moving through is a fair bet. After that people in Hispaniola and Jamaica and Caymans and Cuba will need to pay attention as any one of them may be next in line for what will likely be a major hurricane. I hope and pray that doesn't happen because many of those islands would suffer tremendously if such a scenario occurred.

If the system waits until later to develop compared to what GFS is showing it may travel further west missing the first trough.

[Blown Away]

12z Gfdl shifts way west.




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Likely due to significant development beginning @70W, which is much later than what GFS is showing...

[ConvergenceZone]

I too can see this making it to the Yukatan Penninsula. I don't' buy a storm moving this far south suddenly pulled Northward, as if an invisible arm is going to reach down and grab it. If it was moving further north, then I could believe that

[tolakram]

A little stronger, faster, and a bit further north than the 0z run

edit: i take that back, hard to compare due to 24 hours between frames.

[wxmann_91]

This is just an amateur weather watcher's opinion concerning the trends I'm seeing. I think this has Yucatan Channel written all over it.

What trends do you see that would suggest this?

[gatorcane]

12Z GFDL is actually moving WSW at the end:

[SouthFLTropics]

Unless I'm missing something, looking at the 500mb chart it looks a little further south and weaker this run.

[tolakram]

[gatorcane]

Unless I'm missing something, looking at the 500mb chart it looks a little further south and weaker this run.

Yes out through 72 hours it seems to be weaker at least looking at the 500MB charts, perhaps it will mean further west, we shall see.

[Blown Away]

Unless I'm missing something, looking at the 500mb chart it looks a little further south and weaker this run.

I think it is and maybe moving faster than 00z...