ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

Unless I'm missing something, looking at the 500mb chart it looks a little further south and weaker this run.

I think it is and maybe moving faster than 00z...

It is definitely faster than yesterday's 12z. Hard to tell with the 00z due to the 24 hour gaps.

[gatorcane]

12Z Canadian ensembles not budging much from 00Z and west of the CMC operational:

[Steve]

Although the GFS has been questionable the last few years, this would not be surprising. The pattern has definitely shifted to a more fall-like pattern across the east. I can envision this to be like a Tomas (albeit one month early and slightly east) or a Flora. I also would not let your guard down if in PR...

I usually agree with your posts, but not this one. This is summer. It may temporarily transition, but the warm water off the east coast is not going to let go for weeks. It's going to fight back and is the current dominant feature for our weather.

[tolakram]

Unless I'm missing something, looking at the 500mb chart it looks a little further south and weaker this run.

Yes out through 72 hours it seems to be weaker at least looking at the 500MB charts, perhaps it will mean further west, we shall see.

It's an illusion due to the panel time separation. Comparing Weatherbell 12z72 to 0z84 it is near the same strength but a little further southwest.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Is it just me or is this sharp of a recurve when a storm is this far south, somewhat unusual?

Its not you, IMO. Something strange, or one for the books.

The only pre-November storm I can think of that did that was Hazel in 1954.

Cleo in 64 had a similar track but that one went right over Miami.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... _track.png

[tolakram]

How low can it go?

[gatorcane]

[Blown Away]

Uh-oh, Euro & GFS not playing nicely... Euro W and weak...

[SouthFLTropics]

Over the ABC Islands and weaker at 96 hours.

[SeGaBob]

Next frame should be telling...

[PTrackerLA]

Definitely further SW this run, looking similar to the 12z UKMET so far

[gatorcane]

MUCH weaker on the ECMWF through 96 hours though still looks like a CAT 1 hurricane for the ABC islands.

[Alyono]

maybe south of Aruba at 96 hours

[tolakram]

0Z had it a 999mb, 997mb on this run but I believe there is land interaction. So far, at 90 hours, it is stronger and southwest. Again, this is looking at Weatherbell images I cannot post here.

[Blown Away]

maybe south of Aruba at 96 hours

That's historic...

[tatertawt24]

maybe south of Aruba at 96 hours

That's historic...

I thought Ivan made it south of Aruba?

[Alyono]

looking at full res, this makes landfall in Venezuela on the EC

[Alyono]

maybe south of Aruba at 96 hours

That's historic...

I thought Ivan made it south of Aruba?

Ivan north. They'd still be cleaning up Aruba had it went south of Aruba at its intensity

[toad strangler]

WSW movement in that last 12z Euro frame putting the Low right near the coast ....

[gatorcane]

EC 120 hours and a good ridge still north of the Caribbean: