ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[drezee]

What is the European doing...not good

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm going to laugh if this goes into Costa Rica or Nicaragua.

Well then we would be back to were we where on Thursday lol.

True, but with a much weaker system than was forecasted earlier

[stormlover2013]

here is the JMA run

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=255

[cycloneye]

Trend is west.

[tolakram]

If you are looking at Tropical Tidbits you're missing 3 frames between each time point. It does end up moving NW after turning NE for a frame.

It is moving NW at 144h but also steady strength around 984mb. Wind is all on NE side of storm, as if it's sheared.

[gatorcane]

Heading NW at 168 hours looks very close to the 00Z ECMWF ensemble mean:

[tolakram]

979mb hirez

[gatorcane]

The Euro out through 168 hours is quite a bit weaker than the 00Z but still a solid hurricane heading NW

[PTrackerLA]

Jamaica could be threatened this run, it will be close!

[stormlover2013]

JMA has it right where the euro has it at 168 hours

[OntarioEggplant]

Doesn't look like the Euro is going to have that weird second cutoff low this run.

[blp]

SW of 00z position. Major change from 24hrs ago.

[gatorcane]

12Z JMA had it moving west south of Jamaica at 192 hours:

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z ECMWF looking closer to the UKMET with the system getting tangled up in SA and weaker by 120 hours.

[tolakram]

We are past the reliable part of the run in my opinion. The rest if for entertainment. I doubt it actually hits SA, but there's always a first (or second time) in history.

North turn at 174 hours, but it is just west of Hispaniola and would have to head NE to hit it.

[SeGaBob]

Has the NHC ever issued advisories on a landfalling SA system?

[tolakram]

[Blown Away]

Slightly W of 00z position at @192 hours...

[gatorcane]

[SFLcane]

Trend is west Luis with those 18z models