ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[PTrackerLA]

Euro has a big trough coming in from the West over the Rockies at 192hr

[Alyono]

We are past the reliable part of the run in my opinion. The rest if for entertainment. I doubt it actually hits SA, but there's always a first (or second time) in history.

North turn at 174 hours, but it is just west of Hispaniola and would have to head NE to hit it.

SA landfalls happen more than one may think

Joan, Bret, Cesar. When Isidore was a TD, it too hit SA

[tolakram]

968mb just off the tip of Haiti, still moving north.

[gatorcane]

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

Cuba landfall around 210 hours, still moving north.

[SeGaBob]

Looks like NNW at 240

[gatorcane]

Narrow "thumb" ridge over top with it slowing down and turning NW way out at 240 hours....yikes

[Alyono]

Negatively tilted trough approaching an intensifying hurricane at 240 hours.

That would spell doom for the East Coast

[Steve]

No telling if the JMA could be right, but it looks to be semi-realistic based on overall patterns.

[terstorm1012]

Euro has a big trough coming in from the West over the Rockies at 192hr

yeah, gotta watch that trough! It's the key to this whole saga.

[toad strangler]

Guantanamo Bay special

[tolakram]

All in all I'd say we don't know anything new. Best guess is somewhere east of Jamaica in 8 days. Maybe.

12Z run

[RL3AO]

Negatively tilted trough approaching an intensifying hurricane at 240 hours.

That would spell doom for the East Coast

A little bit of a sandy set up.

[SFLcane]

This is just to close for comfort for Florida. Whatever the case 12z further west

[wxmann_91]

Negatively tilted trough approaching an intensifying hurricane at 240 hours.

That would spell doom for the East Coast

I'm not so sure... there's no blocking ridge to the east or north. This is all probably a moot point given how we are in fantasy range, but the Euro would suggest a close call, but ultimate recurve.

[gatorcane]

This is just to close for comfort for Florida. Whatever the case 12z further west

Agreed WAY too close especially looking at 216 to 240 hours out...wouldn't take much more of a ridge or a few more west shifts to put it right into Florida. let's see what the ECM ensembles show.

[Alyono]

Negatively tilted trough approaching an intensifying hurricane at 240 hours.

That would spell doom for the East Coast

I'm not so sure... there's no blocking ridge to the east or north. This is all probably a moot point given how we are in fantasy range, but the Euro would suggest a close call, but ultimate recurve.

Don't think this would swing it into the coast. I was thinking it would rocket it up the coast inland somewhere between the Outer Banks and Cape Cod

[drezee]

The 240 would make us pull our hair out....block forming between Greenland and UK..squeeze play on the NE Ridge would hold it to block the exit....it might be a EC runner if it verified

[alienstorm]

I question that abrupt right turn, it should be a more gradual turn and then once off eastern Cuba heads NW with the ridge nosing in. Interesting developments