ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Nimbus]

If a trough gets there early it will linger and dig, but if the storm is way down in the Caribbean a seasonal September trough could miss.
Climo favors digging troughs with slow moving Caribbean storms early October so if I were a betting man..

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow, what a complex setup this is. Lots of variables and very few constants

[gatorcane]

Looks like 9 out of the 20 Canadian ensembles that develop this hit Florida. One goes into the Gulf but that is the outlier. Rest go east of Florida into the Bahamas:

[alienstorm]

GEPS Members at 12z place it over Florida

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=200

[Medtronic15]

HWRF 12z (147 kt) Enjoy!

[jlauderdal]

This is just to close for comfort for Florida. Whatever the case 12z further west

Agreed WAY too close especially looking at 216 to 240 hours out...wouldn't take much more of a ridge or a few more west shifts to put it right into Florida. let's see what the ECM ensembles show.

the unfriendly thumb ridge that was mentioned this morning from our friend in melbourne...beware the thumb ridge, beware the COL..these things tend to pop up and cause chaos to the forecast...looking beyond 5 days is very dangerous and entertainment purposes only with both track and especially intensity

[gatorcane]

Latest guidance with GFS Ensembles well to the east of Florida:

[cajungal]

Looking a lot better for the Gulf coast. But Florida and East Coast still need to watch carefully.

[emeraldislenc]

any chance it could take a path like Hazel in 1954?

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Latest guidance with GFS Ensembles well to the east of Florida:

The projected track, at least by the GFS, reminds me of Hurricane Hazel of 1954.

[mcheer23]

Looking a lot better for the Gulf coast. But Florida and East Coast still need to watch carefully.

Not really, the models right now are about as accurate as flipping a coin.

[blp]

What a difference 48hrs makes. This is why we need to keep an eye on it. Full windshield wipers in effect.

12z Saturday:


12z Yesterday:


12z Today:

[xcool22]

Looking a lot better for the Gulf coast. But Florida and East Coast still need to watch carefully.

From la to fl need to watch this

[PTrackerLA]

Out to day 8 on the Euro ensembles and the OP is definitely on the right side of the guidance envelope.

[p1nheadlarry]

Latest guidance with GFS Ensembles well to the east of Florida:

That looks like a hybrid between Hazel (1954) and the 1938 LI Express

[drezee]

I do not like the SW sag of the pressure field. Euro corrects towardent that pressure field in the past. I would expect another SW shift for 0z.

[toad strangler]

Lots of NE folk think this looks like a Sandy 2 set up.

[drezee]

Out to day 8 on the Euro ensembles and the OP is definitely on the right side of the guidance envelope.

Link??

[OntarioEggplant]

Euro ensembles are Yucatan to Western Cuba. Cutoff low is quick to leave.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the 12Z ECMWF ensemble mean has shifted west?!? 240 hour image below: