ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[tolakram]

Trending stronger again.

[AtlanticWind]

I can't much level of faith into the models five days out, let alone 7 or 10 days out, following Hermine. Granted, I know the circumstances are different, but the sting from Hermine still lingers. Right now, not much point in looking deeply into the models post-East Carib.

What stings from Hermine? Warnings were posted in plenty of time for Florida

[SouthFLTropics]

I can't much level of faith into the models five days out, let alone 7 or 10 days out, following Hermine. Granted, I know the circumstances are different, but the sting from Hermine still lingers. Right now, not much point in looking deeply into the models post-East Carib.

What stings from Hermine? Warnings were posted in plenty of time for Florida

The sting from Hermine that I believe that he is referring to is how the models were all over the board with anything beyond 72 hours. It wasn't until it actually consolidated in the GOM that we got decent agreement from the globals.

[SouthFLTropics]

12z GFS ensembles with a Cleo track

Graphic please???

[tolakram]

[SouthFLTropics]

Something to note...on the 78 hour 18z GFS the high over Minnesota doesn't appear to be as strong which is possibly allowing the cut off low to lift out at a faster rate.

[stormreader]

Animation from 0 to 240 hours of the 12Z ECMWF ensemble mean run. This ought to wake up some GOM folks

I know I should wait (posted Sun after, said to wait 48 hours, we'll know somewhat better on Tues) but I find that run of the Euro ominous. It's closer to what the original model runs were showing Sat, it's swung pretty much back to square run. I was never impressed with the "cut-off low" scenario eroding the ridge (way too problematic). According to large scale upper level patterns (ridging over E Coast) Yucatan
Channel was most likel destination. Also learned that teleconnection from jet stream patterns in the Pacific 10 days previous favored a more westward move. Storms do in fact find their way to the Yucatan Channel in early October. Don't be surprised if GFS begins to fall in line in next 24-36 hours.

[tolakram]

[Bocadude85]

Something to note...on the 78 hour 18z GFS the high over Minnesota doesn't appear to be as strong which is possibly allowing the cut off low to lift out at a faster rate.

The 18Z is also faster and slightly northwest of the 12z so far.

[sma10]

Something to note...on the 78 hour 18z GFS the high over Minnesota doesn't appear to be as strong which is possibly allowing the cut off low to lift out at a faster rate.

The 18Z is also faster and slightly northwest of the 12z so far.

Clearly the GFS interacts differently with the Caribbean ridge than the other models. Not saying it's necessarily wrong, just clearly different. Even the NAM makes a move towards SA.

[tolakram]

[GeneratorPower]

Gosh. Models have been less helpful this year. But usually when the GFS is off by itself it ends up caving.

[tolakram]

Should turn north again in the next frame or so.

[wxmann_91]

GFS starting the turn at hr 108. Not much has changed - still a large and deep weakness over the western Atlantic and Caribbean from the effects of the eastern U.S. closed low.

[ThetaE]

Moving NNW at 114.

[tolakram]

Made the NW turn.

[tolakram]

A little different 500mb look.

[ThetaE]

Heading due N now. It's west of the 12z run, but not by much.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_23.png

[tolakram]

As far as I'm concerned we're already in GFS lala land. It thinks this goes near major quickly and then turned due north due to the upper level steering. Ok

[caneman]

I can't much level of faith into the models five days out, let alone 7 or 10 days out, following Hermine. Granted, I know the circumstances are different, but the sting from Hermine still lingers. Right now, not much point in looking deeply into the models post-East Carib.

What stings from Hermine? Warnings were posted in plenty of time for Florida

Irregardless of if they were posted that far out. Many areas experienced epic flooding