ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

Another IR view

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20NHE&lat=15&lon=-52&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1024&height=600&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=12&mapcolor=yellow

[TheStormExpert]

It's eerily quiet on here tonight.

Anyways, the slower and more gradually this develops the more likely the Euro is to pan out IMO.

[SouthFLTropics]

It's eerily quiet on here tonight.

Anyways, the slower and more gradually this develops the more likely the Euro is to pan out IMO.

Calm before the storm...actually many are probably watching reality TV tonight...LOL

[gatorcane]

Seems like there is a lot of dry air off to the SW. Plus no deep convection has consolidated near the "center." I am really wondering if the GFS is way too overbullish in the Eastern/Central Caribbean with this system.

[Medtronic15]

Looks poorly organized to me.

Really?

[HURRICANELONNY]

Im guessing depression/ storm by 8am.

[TheStormExpert]

Seems like there is a lot of dry air off to the SW. Plus no deep convection has consolidated near the "center." I am really wondering if the GFS is way too overbullish in the Eastern/Central Caribbean with this system.

As usual the GFS is likely WAY over bullish with this and it will likely struggle some though not like the vast majority of the storms this season.

[GeneratorPower]

Looks poorly organized to me.

Really?

https://scontent-dft4-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/ ... e=5880F499

Named at 11pm tonight. Bank it.

[dexterlabio]

If this was disorganized I don't know the word to describe Colin..

[Alyono]

Seems like there is a lot of dry air off to the SW. Plus no deep convection has consolidated near the "center." I am really wondering if the GFS is way too overbullish in the Eastern/Central Caribbean with this system.

As usual the GFS is likely WAY over bullish with this and it will likely struggle some though not like the vast majority of the storms this season.

no... you CANNOT use the year as a reason to say this will not develop. You have to look at the environment. And the environment goes beyond deep level shear and dry air. The environment is going to be perhaps the most favorable since 2005, if not more favorable than it was then

[Hurricaneman]

If the Euro track is right this may bomb out near Jamaica and continue to do so up until Cuba landfall and possibly be a bad hurricane for sw Florida and up through the state so there needs to be vigilance in all of Florida and maybe the Carolinas

[hurricanedude]

Alyono.....if you had to take an early shot in the dark....who in the United Stayed has the best shot of getting hit? Gulf? Or East Coast

[Hurricaneman]

Alyono.....if you had to take an early shot in the dark....who in the United Stayed has the best shot of getting hit? Gulf? Or East Coast

This isn't Alyono but my thought is we may get both to some degree

[HURRICANELONNY]

Hopefully east of US

[hurricanehunter69]

What a tough forecast for the pros. A myriad of variables at play here! Although feeling a "little" better than what the models showed two days ago; The north gulf coast is not out of the woods "yet". As for consolidation; I'd bet on the storm consolidating at around 11 to 12 north latitude. Check it out on (Mimic-TPW ). http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

[abajan]

Looks poorly organized to me.

Really?

https://scontent-dft4-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/ ... e=5880F499

Named at 11pm tonight. Bank it.

No Matthew at 11. Possibly by 5 AM but more likely by 11 AM.

[GeneratorPower]

Really?

https://scontent-dft4-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/ ... e=5880F499

Named at 11pm tonight. Bank it.

No Matthew at 11. Possibly by 5 AM but more likely by 11 AM.

Well, prediction fail on my part. But really. Any time now.

[JPmia]

Seems like there is a lot of dry air off to the SW. Plus no deep convection has consolidated near the "center." I am really wondering if the GFS is way too overbullish in the Eastern/Central Caribbean with this system.

As usual the GFS is likely WAY over bullish with this and it will likely struggle some though not like the vast majority of the storms this season.

no... you CANNOT use the year as a reason to say this will not develop. You have to look at the environment. And the environment goes beyond deep level shear and dry air. The environment is going to be perhaps the most favorable since 2005, if not more favorable than it was then

Good point.. at the moment there are a few indicators that are more favorable than 2005.. one of them is SSTs in the Caribbean.

[txwatcher91]

NHC will likely wait for recon before upgrading unless enough data comes in overnight to justify an upgrade.

[SeGaBob]

It doesn't look as good as earlier...