ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Bailey1777]

You don't have to be an expert to see how magnificent this soon to be tc is going to be...don't care about models or forecast for a second..just look at the size and symmetry coming together..after all the sick tropical entities we've seen lately this is going to be a real change..don't wish it on anyone just talking from a presentation perspective.

[wxman57]

Alyono.....if you had to take an early shot in the dark....who in the United Stayed has the best shot of getting hit? Gulf? Or East Coast

Between the Gulf and East Coast, definitely the East Coast. Chances are greater, though, that it hits neither. I'd put my money on Nova Scotia or Newfoundland. I'm not saying the U.S. is in the clear. Maybe a 20% chance of East Coast, 80% east of the U.S. It's really hard to drive a storm westward into the Gulf this time of year.

Oh, the ASCAT pass at 00Z did catch the NE part of the disturbance. There was one flagged 35kt and a few 30kt winds, but not enough data to confirm the LLC. NHC won't upgrade without recon in there or a good ASCAT pass late tomorrow morning, which would mean at 21Z tomorrow.

[TheStormExpert]

Alyono.....if you had to take an early shot in the dark....who in the United Stayed has the best shot of getting hit? Gulf? Or East Coast

Between the Gulf and East Coast, definitely the East Coast. Chances are greater, though, that it hits neither. I'd put my money on Nova Scotia or Newfoundland. I'm not saying the U.S. is in the clear. Maybe a 20% chance of East Coast, 80% east of the U.S. It's really hard to drive a storm westward into the Gulf this time of year.

Wilma in late October of 2005 sure had no problem doing so, and I could name several others as well that had no problem getting into the GoM as late as November.

[Alyono]

Alyono.....if you had to take an early shot in the dark....who in the United Stayed has the best shot of getting hit? Gulf? Or East Coast

early thoughts are it is too soon to say. The uncertainty is simply too high. This is like Joaquin in that regard

[txwatcher91]

Something people need to keep in mind with model projections and landfall possibilities is that storms are never a single "point" or line on a map. Effects from these storms can extend a good ways from the center. With 97L initial indications point to a large system and models show the wind field expanding dramatically as it moves north into the Atlantic due to interaction with the HP and Extratropical transition as well even further north. This would produce a HUGE swath of TS and higher force winds. Even if this passed offshore areas along the coast and just inland could see TS force winds easily if this actually occurs as modeled.

[JaxGator]

Banding looks to be improving on all quads and it still looks good (at least to me). This will probably be thus far the biggest storm of the season and not for good reasons at all. Will be watching.

[Alyono]

One thing holding this back is the convection on the periphery. It needs to get some core convection in order to take off

The persistent periphery convection is significantly reducing the chance of this rapidly intensifying prior to reaching the Caribbean

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Evening all,

Slow night in here considering. 97l Is not looking bad because it is such a large system I think it will take a bit longer to reach TC status. But once it does look out. Maybe a little weaking if it goes south west and gets close to land as per the EC. But after that I think all bets are off, and this will be one to remember

[SFLcane]

One thing holding this back is the convection on the periphery. It needs to get some core convection in order to take off

The persistent periphery convection is significantly reducing the chance of this rapidly intensifying prior to reaching the Caribbean

I so don't by this RI the GFS keeps showing into Haiti cat 3-4. Think that's unrealistic therefore leaning towards ensembles at this point in particular the euro .

[Alyono]

One thing holding this back is the convection on the periphery. It needs to get some core convection in order to take off

The persistent periphery convection is significantly reducing the chance of this rapidly intensifying prior to reaching the Caribbean

I so don't by this RI the GFS keeps showing into Haiti cat 3-4. Think that's unrealistic therefore leaning towards ensembles at this point in particular the euro .

Why is a cat 3-4 over these very high heat content waters in a low shear environment with a favorable MJO and Kelvin wave unrealistic?

[Miami Storm Tracker]

I think he means in the near term, with the sonoptic setup I think most would agree at some point this will have a RI cycle.

[SeGaBob]

Alyono, do you still think this gets named tomorrow?
Edit: past midnight now so today?

[pcolaman]

I think that due to the size of this storm that it will take longer to get its act together. Therefore causing the 97L to go further west . I hope people are thinking about how to get people out of harms way in a few days. Gonna be bad for alot of people somewere...

[SFLcane]

One thing holding this back is the convection on the periphery. It needs to get some core convection in order to take off

The persistent periphery convection is significantly reducing the chance of this rapidly intensifying prior to reaching the Caribbean

I so don't by this RI the GFS keeps showing into Haiti cat 3-4. Think that's unrealistic therefore leaning towards ensembles at this point in particular the euro .

Why is a cat 3-4 over these very high heat content waters in a low shear environment with a favorable MJO and Kelvin wave unrealistic?

Heat content best lies in western Caribbean were this might never make.

[Alyono]

I so don't by this RI the GFS keeps showing into Haiti cat 3-4. Think that's unrealistic therefore leaning towards ensembles at this point in particular the euro .

Why is a cat 3-4 over these very high heat content waters in a low shear environment with a favorable MJO and Kelvin wave unrealistic?

Heat content best lies in western Caribbean were this might never make.

yes, but it is still obscenely high in the eastern and central Caribbean

[hurricanehunter69]

My heart goes out to all those who will be impacted by this thing in the Caribbean. As for the United States...I'm thinking the magic number is about 78W. After all, #1) most storms that travel this low in latitude usually go to SA or Mexico. And #2) Future Matthew will actually go south of the Hebert Box.

[wxmann_91]

I so don't by this RI the GFS keeps showing into Haiti cat 3-4. Think that's unrealistic therefore leaning towards ensembles at this point in particular the euro .

Why is a cat 3-4 over these very high heat content waters in a low shear environment with a favorable MJO and Kelvin wave unrealistic?

Heat content best lies in western Caribbean were this might never make.

Less than half the heat content in the western Caribbean is sufficient for a major hurricane. We're not talking about a Cat 5 here, and this is still the Caribbean.

[NWFL56]

It's eerily quiet on here tonight.

Anyways, the slower and more gradually this develops the more likely the Euro is to pan out IMO.

The waiting game begins.

[Alyono]

:uarrow: Alyono, do you still think this gets named tomorrow?
Edit: past midnight now so today?

yes, satellite indicates the circulation is becoming better defined

[FireRat]

It is scary to see how consistent things have been regarding the model output for this system over the last several days. Now we see this huge storm taking shape and now is the time to take it seriously! Reading that conditions are the most favorable since 2005 is a big eye opener, it's likely going to be a big one.

It is such a prominent circulation, and reminds me of a typhoon's development more than an atlantic storm. Matthew could indeed be a monster! Let's see what happens tomorrow!!