ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[wxmann_91]

Starting the turn at hr 108. GFS has been rock-solid at this range for awhile, no major changes from previous runs.

[tolakram]

It's under an anti cyclone which is moving in the same direction.

Turn starting right on time, ridge is gone. It's going to be similar to the previous run through 5 days and after that I don't believe it anyway. Will be interesting to see the Euro tomorrow morning.

[SouthFLTropics]

Starting the turn at hr 108. GFS has been rock-solid at this range for awhile, no major changes from previous runs.

Big difference downstream...at 114 hours the cutoff low is now centered over Western Ohio versus over Central Pennsylvania where it was on the 18z.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

I don't see how this makes the sharp turn, that it has shown on all these runs. Unless I am reading the chart wrong posted on the last page the High looks to strong to allow it to make such a sharp turn.

[Alyono]

How this going to intensify with this shear waiting! GFS RI bogus

That shear is the outflow of the storm. Of course that map shows shear. Plus, it's an analysis map, not a forecast map.

Had that map not showed high shear ahead of this, then the RI would be bogus

[Bocadude85]

Starting the turn at hr 108. GFS has been rock-solid at this range for awhile, no major changes from previous runs.

Big difference downstream...at 114 hours the cutoff low is now centered over Western Ohio versus over Central Pennsylvania where it was on the 18z.

Not to mention each run of the GFS this gets a little farther west before the turn commences.

[Alyono]

Starting the turn at hr 108. GFS has been rock-solid at this range for awhile, no major changes from previous runs.

starting the turn 2-3 degrees farther west, is a fairly significant change. Whether it will have major impacts on the future track is to be determined, however

[wxmann_91]

Starting the turn at hr 108. GFS has been rock-solid at this range for awhile, no major changes from previous runs.

Big difference downstream...at 114 hours the cutoff low is now centered over Western Ohio versus over Central Pennsylvania where it was on the 18z.

If anything a more cut off low (the 576 dm line is closed here instead of open on the 18Z run, and the low center is still back in OH) increases the chances that 97L recurves down the line instead of the ridge building back in time.

[OntarioEggplant]

That's a pretty significant shift west in the GFS

[SFLcane]

ok.....shear 30kts just ahead of it.

[CrazyC83]

00Z GFS would be truly a nightmare scenario.

[chaser1]

That's a pretty significant shift west in the GFS

Yes it is, and yet I was expecting a further west shift than shown thus far. It may well take a more NW motion as it approaches far W. Haiti. Really beginning to deepen at this point too.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Any chance of posting the maps please.

[SouthFLTropics]

00Z GFS would be truly a nightmare scenario.

Looks like a direct hit on the Haitien capital.

[bamajammer4eva]

12z, 18z, 00z gfs 126hr shifted west lil bit here lil bit there. May not mean much but it's noticeable

[Bocadude85]

The 0Z GFS at 150 hours is in a similar location that the 12Z Euro is in at 216 hours...only difference is that the GFS is much faster.

[SFLcane]

Any chance of posting the maps please.

[Alyono]

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 13.0N 66.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.09.2016 60 13.0N 66.5W 1008 34
0000UTC 30.09.2016 72 13.0N 69.2W 1005 35
1200UTC 30.09.2016 84 12.3N 71.5W 1002 40
0000UTC 01.10.2016 96 12.0N 73.8W 998 44
1200UTC 01.10.2016 108 11.5N 75.3W 997 45
0000UTC 02.10.2016 120 12.2N 76.9W 993 45
1200UTC 02.10.2016 132 13.1N 77.8W 988 53
0000UTC 03.10.2016 144 14.7N 77.8W 978 61

[Miami Storm Tracker]

ThanksS

[GeneratorPower]

Well with the GFS proclaiming the end of civilization in Haiti it is time for bed. Gosh I hope that doesn't happen.