ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#961 Postby chaser1 » Mon Sep 26, 2016 11:30 pm

Hmmm, rising 500mb heights over Hudson Bay, and yet the storm is moving due north at this point? Ah sure, there's the culprit - falling 500 mb heights well NE of the storm and over the Azores?? LOL
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#962 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Sep 26, 2016 11:30 pm

Alyono wrote:NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 13.0N 66.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.09.2016 60 13.0N 66.5W 1008 34
0000UTC 30.09.2016 72 13.0N 69.2W 1005 35
1200UTC 30.09.2016 84 12.3N 71.5W 1002 40
0000UTC 01.10.2016 96 12.0N 73.8W 998 44
1200UTC 01.10.2016 108 11.5N 75.3W 997 45
0000UTC 02.10.2016 120 12.2N 76.9W 993 45
1200UTC 02.10.2016 132 13.1N 77.8W 988 53
0000UTC 03.10.2016 144 14.7N 77.8W 978 61


Are u kidding me right now? It just keeps going more and more west. Next run it hits 80W??? The model spread is amazing. Major busts will come from some of these models.....


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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#963 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Mon Sep 26, 2016 11:32 pm

Was that the end of the run, it it was further west than the last run. If I am not mistaken that is where it turn north on it's last rub earlier.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#964 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Sep 26, 2016 11:32 pm

00z GEM much further west, moving North toward Jamaica.
Last edited by Dean4Storms on Mon Sep 26, 2016 11:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#965 Postby Bocadude85 » Mon Sep 26, 2016 11:33 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
Alyono wrote:NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 13.0N 66.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.09.2016 60 13.0N 66.5W 1008 34
0000UTC 30.09.2016 72 13.0N 69.2W 1005 35
1200UTC 30.09.2016 84 12.3N 71.5W 1002 40
0000UTC 01.10.2016 96 12.0N 73.8W 998 44
1200UTC 01.10.2016 108 11.5N 75.3W 997 45
0000UTC 02.10.2016 120 12.2N 76.9W 993 45
1200UTC 02.10.2016 132 13.1N 77.8W 988 53
0000UTC 03.10.2016 144 14.7N 77.8W 978 61


Are u kidding me right now? It just keeps going more and more west. Next run it hits 80W??? The model spread is amazing. Major busts will come from some of these models.....


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Yea the 0Z UKMET is over 2 degrees further west
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#966 Postby wxmann_91 » Mon Sep 26, 2016 11:34 pm

chaser1 wrote:Hmmm, rising 500mb heights over Hudson Bay, and yet the storm is moving due north at this point? Ah sure, there's the culprit - falling 500 mb heights well NE of the storm and over the Azores?? LOL


Nah, the sheared out remnants of the northeast U.S. closed low are still hanging around and imparting westerly flow in the mid-latitudes. This is somewhat similar to yesterday's Euro runs. This is probably a recurve.

Today's Euro runs' 500mb pattern + GFS storm speed, however, would absolutely be a threat for the East Coast. But the evolution of the 500mb pattern is quite murky after ~Day 5. I'll stick to my call that this will stay east of the U.S.

EDIT: well ho-hum, I guess there might just be enough high-latitude ridging developing in eastern Canada to hook this due north around hr 216.
Last edited by wxmann_91 on Mon Sep 26, 2016 11:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#967 Postby SeGaBob » Mon Sep 26, 2016 11:37 pm

I guess I didn't give the GFS enough money this time... :)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#968 Postby blp » Mon Sep 26, 2016 11:38 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:
Alyono wrote:NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 13.0N 66.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.09.2016 60 13.0N 66.5W 1008 34
0000UTC 30.09.2016 72 13.0N 69.2W 1005 35
1200UTC 30.09.2016 84 12.3N 71.5W 1002 40
0000UTC 01.10.2016 96 12.0N 73.8W 998 44
1200UTC 01.10.2016 108 11.5N 75.3W 997 45
0000UTC 02.10.2016 120 12.2N 76.9W 993 45
1200UTC 02.10.2016 132 13.1N 77.8W 988 53
0000UTC 03.10.2016 144 14.7N 77.8W 978 61


Are u kidding me right now? It just keeps going more and more west. Next run it hits 80W??? The model spread is amazing. Major busts will come from some of these models.....


Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk


Yea the 0Z UKMET is over 2 degrees further west


The UKmet usually aligns well with the Euro so that might be a precursor to what the Euro may show.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#969 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 26, 2016 11:38 pm

Due north at about 72W all the way through? Really GFS? I would pretty much toss this GFS run beyond Day 8.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#970 Postby PTrackerLA » Mon Sep 26, 2016 11:39 pm

Getting really close to the NE this run at 222hrs...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#971 Postby Alyono » Mon Sep 26, 2016 11:42 pm

looks like the MU parks itself over Cape Cod as a cat 3
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#972 Postby Bocadude85 » Mon Sep 26, 2016 11:42 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#973 Postby Alyono » Mon Sep 26, 2016 11:43 pm

CMC looks like Isabel 2.0
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#974 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Mon Sep 26, 2016 11:43 pm

Ok a little confused since no charts are being posted, one min it keeps tracking west. Then it's a hard north turn are we talking two different models, or am I just half asleep.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#975 Postby Bocadude85 » Mon Sep 26, 2016 11:47 pm

Alyono wrote:CMC looks like Isabel 2.0


Yea CMC now showing a North Carolina landfall
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#976 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Sep 26, 2016 11:49 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:The 0Z CMC is a good 200-300 miles southwest of the 12Z run at 174 hours.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=atl&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2016092700&fh=174&xpos=0&ypos=0


If it ends up just 50 miles further West it could put TS/Hurricane gusts to the FL east coast. Margin of error small...


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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#977 Postby txwatcher91 » Mon Sep 26, 2016 11:50 pm

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:Ok a little confused since no charts are being posted, one min it keeps tracking west. Then it's a hard north turn are we talking two different models, or am I just half asleep.


The GFS shifted west some but still offshore tracking midway between Bermuda and NC coast. Cmc came in west also with NC landfall hour 198.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#978 Postby Bocadude85 » Mon Sep 26, 2016 11:51 pm

The 240 hour position from the 12Z Euro to the 0Z GFS is about 1500 miles.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#979 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Sep 26, 2016 11:55 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:The 240 hour position from the 12Z Euro to the 0Z GFS is about 1500 miles.


Which is why in my opinion whichever ends up being wrong will suffer an all time epic bust. Just my opinion.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#980 Postby Bocadude85 » Mon Sep 26, 2016 11:59 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
Bocadude85 wrote:The 240 hour position from the 12Z Euro to the 0Z GFS is about 1500 miles.


Which is why in my opinion whichever ends up being wrong will suffer an all time epic bust. Just my opinion.


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I agree. One of these models is going to be wrong in a big way. I do however think the west shifts will be coming to an end. I think the final outcome will be a hit on eastern/central Cuba and then the central Bahama islands and after that I am leaning out to sea.
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