ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[USTropics]

Hard to trust any of the operational models past 120 hours, but this is about as bad of a scenario as we could get for Jamaica and Cuba:

[chaser1]

Watching models for entertainment value, at least will teach one how timing IS truly everything! I think this overall westward shift might continue some. Plan on the next GFS to follow suit. All in all, I'm slightly more confident that Nova Scotia may not be the primary target here.

[SeGaBob]

More ensembles will have to be in the Gulf...

[KWT]

ECM bending back WNW is an interesting trend, the ensembles certainly hinted strongly at that being a possibility last night.

Pretty large WSW dive as well early on as it strengthens.

The models all agree on a weakness being present at 120-144hrs and that this lifts up quite markedly...big differences though in whether it gets the job done.

[USTropics]

I'm curious to see how the operational run is in relation to the ensembles. Past runs it's been weighted towards the right hand side of the envelope. Also curious if the GFS will follow this shift or not.

[SeGaBob]

And off to bed now...bet that run will get people talking.

[USTropics]

240 hours, it's actually strengthening as it moves offshore of Cuba:

[TimeZone]

It's going to kill itself over Cuba if it gets trapped there too long.

[LarryWx]

Furthest west on Euro run:

0Z Sun 72W
12Z Sun 70W
0Z Mon 75W
12Z Mon 76W
0Z Tue 80W

[USTropics]

The 00z CMC ensembles have also backed off on a quick turn towards the north, backing the operational run of the 00z ECMWF through 156 hours:

[LarryWx]

Interestingly, those FL threats from many of the 0Z CMC ensemble members occur a whopping 3 days earlier than the 0Z Euro run..168 hours vs 240 hours!

[AutoPenalti]

240 hours, it's actually strengthening as it moves offshore of Cuba:

Okay, that's when I know that it's in Fantasy range.

[USTropics]

:uarrow: Interestingly, those FL threats from many of the 0Z CMC ensemble members occur a whopping 3 days earlier than the 0Z Euro run..168 hours vs 240 hours!

Yea there are 3 scenarios from the CMC ensembles, a quick moving storm that move sthrough western Cuba and recurves through SW Florida, a group that moves over eastern Cuba and recurves off the EC, and a slow moving group that goes over central Cuba and then towards the GOM. Talk about a widespread of possibilities still.

Group that recurves through SW FL at 150 hours:


234 hours

[USTropics]

00z UKMET very close to the ECMWF

[chaser1]

00z UKMET very close to the ECMWF

Though too far east, in defense of the GFS it's track is not way off base. Pretty sure it'll nudge west too.

[USTropics]

Animated image of the 00z operational models at 168 hours with tracks (includes ECMWF, GFS,UKMET, CMC, NAVGEM, FIM):

[stormreader]

:uarrow: Interestingly, those FL threats from many of the 0Z CMC ensemble members occur a whopping 3 days earlier than the 0Z Euro run..168 hours vs 240 hours!

Yea there are 3 scenarios from the CMC ensembles, a quick moving storm that move sthrough western Cuba and recurves through SW Florida, a group that moves over eastern Cuba and recurves off the EC, and a slow moving group that goes over central Cuba and then towards the GOM. Talk about a widespread of possibilities still.

Group that recurves through SW FL at 150 hours:


234 hours

I like this post because it shows you just how far west could actually be in play next week. GFS and Atlantic scenarios have not totally collapsed yet, but they are hanging by a thread as each new run forecasts further West. Don't be surprised if by Wednesday night we begin to get a model consensus on some type of central GOM track. And at that point there would still be some W component to the storm. There are hints of that now (possible bend further West late in run).

[stormreader]

:uarrow: Interestingly, those FL threats from many of the 0Z CMC ensemble members occur a whopping 3 days earlier than the 0Z Euro run..168 hours vs 240 hours!

Yea there are 3 scenarios from the CMC ensembles, a quick moving storm that move sthrough western Cuba and recurves through SW Florida, a group that moves over eastern Cuba and recurves off the EC, and a slow moving group that goes over central Cuba and then towards the GOM. Talk about a widespread of possibilities still.

Group that recurves through SW FL at 150 hours:


234 hours

I like this post because it shows you just how far west could actually be in play next week. GFS and Atlantic scenarios have not totally collapsed yet, but they are hanging by a thread as each new run forecasts further West. Don't be surprised if by Wednesday night we begin to get a model consensus on some type of central GOM track. And at that point there would still be some W component to the storm. There are hints of that now (possible bend further West late in run).

[USTropics]

06z Model Intensity Guidance:

[drezee]

I do not like the SW sag of the pressure field. Euro corrects toward that pressure field in the past. I would expect another SW shift for 0z.

It did make the shift from 12z. I think it has a better handle now.