ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[DESTRUCTION5]

06z GFS looks like it may have something new on its mind this run. West and south thru 90 hr.

[pgoss11]

Seems to have made the turn at 114 hours..persistent bugger.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Seems to have made the turn at 114 hours..persistent bugger.

Yep another run where it absolutely wipes Hati off the Map. Man I certainly hope the GFS changes its tune on that soon.

[pgoss11]

Seems to have made the turn at 114 hours..persistent bugger.

Yep another run where it absolutely wipes Hati off the Map. Man I certainly hope the GFS changes its tune on that soon.

I have family that does mission work in Haiti and this would be just catastrophic to all the help and improvements that have been made. I am praying this track changing for them.

[Shuriken]

The GFDL is certainly getting excited...

(This is after raking Jamaica, and on a slant toward the Gulf. The GFDL appears to be dismissing the sharp right-hook & up the east coast scenarios most of the models are enamored with.)

[DESTRUCTION5]

Yikes

[DESTRUCTION5]

Sandyesque

[DESTRUCTION5]

Well basically the 06z GFS wipes out Hati as we know it and then puts the Jersey Shore into PA somewhere.

Next.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Let's not forget LI and Nantucket.

[USTropics]

ECMWF operational again lies on the eastern side of the ensembles mean. Mean is now pointed at the Yucatan Channel/Western Cuba. The westward shift continues for the ECMWF:

[weathaguyry]

This is exactly what I want to wake up to! (NOT) The GFS has been signaling about something being around LI at 10/6-10/7, this has occurred on multiple runs, with no change in time frame, starting to get a little concerned about this, and I'll keep watching this, after all, 97-L isn't even a depression yet and we aren't talking until late next week (which considering the models is an outrageous amount of time away)

[gatorcane]

So looks like the GFS is much more east now with the turn than the rest of the models with the ECMWF and GFDL furthest west. Wouldn't surprise me if the GFS and its ensembles keep moving more west over time. No doubt the trend is not good for Florida/US.

[SFLcane]

Hey gator yea check out the euro ensembles

[tailgater]

ECMWF operational again lies on the eastern side of the ensembles mean. Mean is now pointed at the Yucatan Channel/Western Cuba. The westward shift continues for the ECMWF:

Well I'm still rebuilding my house from the flooding of the No Name storm in the middle of August that dumped so much rain in the Amite and Comite river basin, Insurance still hasn't settled my claim. Living in a relatives trailer is not where I want to be.
I Don't wish this storm(major or not) on anyone even those that think they want it.

[tolakram]

I hate to say it but it seems the GFS is following the euro about a day behind. It would not surprise me if one of the afternoon runs clears Haiti to the west and then tomorrow nights run goes way west similar to the euro. As I said a few days ago, it would also not surprise me if this stays weak. Sticking militantly to 5 days when looking at the models, all we know is there will be either a tropical storm or hurricane somewhere in the central to southern Caribbean in 5 days. Maybe.

[SFLcane]

[tolakram]

http://i63.tinypic.com/bgtzrr.png

Where are you getting this map?

[HURRICANELONNY]

Pick a bubble. Any bubble will do

[USTropics]

00z GFS ensembles put the entire EC on threat long range. I count 17/20 members that come within 100 miles or make landfall. I've created two images of each member on it's closest approach to the EC. Links will take you to the HD images.





http://i.imgur.com/DOzKdLa.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/UfYg77k.jpg

[Bocadude85]

Woah I see that the 0Z Euro has shifted even more west. It seems the GFS is slowly following in the Euro's tracks. Should be an interesting couple of weeks coming up.