ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[gatorcane]

00Z NAVGEM looking like a hurricane David 1979-type track (the 06Z NAVGEM has shifted east a bit):

[GCANE]

00Z COAMPS pretty much taking the same track as the latest Euro.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/w ... =999&scl=2

[PTrackerLA]

Just looked at the full Euro ensemble tracks on Weatherbell, wow talk about a strong signal of an eventual threat to the USA.

[jlauderdal]

00Z NAVGEM looking like a hurricane David 1979-type track (the 06Z NAVGEM has shifted east a bit):

Navgem jas been consistent and very intense for a couple of days

[cajungal]

Florida and East Coast are at greatest risk. But now I am back to the Gulf Coast needs to watch this too.

[Blown Away]

Just looked at the full Euro ensemble tracks on Weatherbell, wow talk about a strong signal of an eventual threat to the USA.

That SW dip in the Central Caribbean on the 00z run seems a bit suspect and is why the Euro is slower getting to the higher latitudes... I bet that track smoothes out more WNW and timing speeds up...

[stormreader]

Florida and East Coast are at greatest risk. But now I am back to the Gulf Coast needs to watch this too.

Most definitely!

[stormreader]

I hate to say it but it seems the GFS is following the euro about a day behind. It would not surprise me if one of the afternoon runs clears Haiti to the west and then tomorrow nights run goes way west similar to the euro. As I said a few days ago, it would also not surprise me if this stays weak. Sticking militantly to 5 days when looking at the models, all we know is there will be either a tropical storm or hurricane somewhere in the central to southern Caribbean in 5 days. Maybe.

Yes, I too think the Euro has the lead on this. Not only that, but I think the Euro will continue to trend further west, with the GFS trying to catch up. Might see a situation where the GFS makes a "giant leap" in a run or two and catches up. Doubt very seriously that things will be swinging back east again.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Boy oh Boy, track wise, this will be one of the hardest to call 5 days out we have seen. The consensus among almost all the models I have looked at ( past 3 runs) NAVGEM, CMC, GFS, HWRF, ECMWF, - operational and ensembles points to the turn north somewhere around 15N 75W ( big variance here). The timing of the turn, the intensity in the preceding 5 days of development, and the angle of approach to the Lesser Antilles, Greater Antilles, and SE US makes the landfall estimate a huge guess right now. The concerning thing is that to me, it definitely falls on the side of a likely threat to a bunch of people and property, unless we get lucky and it gets sheared down to it's skivvies and we never get a Matthew. That's always possible in Oct in the Caribbean, and even likely climo-wise, but not with this setup. Kelvin wave aside, I do think this will get some shear and dry air and stunt development past what is modeled now, which puts just when, where, and how sharply the Northward turn occurs up in the air. Climo and ever changing shear will come into play I think. Also concerning on the OOZ and 06Z runs is the lack of the trough digging south to push this OTS after either Cuba or Hisp. landfalls. All the models have backed off that. It really looks like trouble for Jamaica, Cuba or Hisp. but major increase in threat to US developing. In other words, this look like a pro bowler starting his backswing with English on the ball and preparing to bowl a curving "strike" through the "Pins" of the islands and SE US.

[p1nheadlarry]

GFS and ECMWF sticking to their guns for the most part, the ensembles show that anyone on the US Atlantic/Gulf coast needs to watch it, possibly even the Yucatan. I hope it spares Haiti and other Caribbean islands.

[HurrMark]

I think 73-75 will be the "magic number" in terms of the US. I think if it clears those longitudes, the chances for a US impact will increase significantly (73 for the NE, 75 for the Carolinas, and of course further south as it goes further west). I just see this simply going out on a parabolic path out to sea at this time...little eastward component once it gets out of the Caribbean.

[TheStormExpert]

I hate to say it but it seems the GFS is following the euro about a day behind. It would not surprise me if one of the afternoon runs clears Haiti to the west and then tomorrow nights run goes way west similar to the euro. As I said a few days ago, it would also not surprise me if this stays weak. Sticking militantly to 5 days when looking at the models, all we know is there will be either a tropical storm or hurricane somewhere in the central to southern Caribbean in 5 days. Maybe.

Yes, I too think the Euro has the lead on this. Not only that, but I think the Euro will continue to trend further west, with the GFS trying to catch up. Might see a situation where the GFS makes a "giant leap" in a run or two and catches up. Doubt very seriously that things will be swinging back east again.

Never say never in the Tropics!

[gatorcane]

Animated GFDL shows a 940MB major hurricane making a gradual turn to the WNW-NW at the end, weakness over Florida/Bahamas

[GCANE]

If this makes it to the west Carib 162 hrs out, this could easily RI.
We all know the OHC there and GFS is showing an improving UL at that time.
If this makes it to a Cat 4 or more in the west Carib, the interaction with the bottom of the trough's PV anomaly could reduce the steering effects and this could slide more into the GOM.
Just a theory at this point.

[TheStormExpert]

Man that 00z Euro would likely be doomsday for someone in Florida or all of Florida together. Fortunately it's 10 days out and will likely change further more, but the trend with the models has been further west over the past 24hrs. Heck this may end up going through the Yucatan Channel like someone mentioned and straight into the Gulf of Mexico when all is said and done.

[sma10]

Just looked at the full Euro ensemble tracks on Weatherbell, wow talk about a strong signal of an eventual threat to the USA.

That SW dip in the Central Caribbean on the 00z run seems a bit suspect and is why the Euro is slower getting to the higher latitudes... I bet that track smoothes out more WNW and timing speeds up...

I would agree with this assessment except for the fact that the Euro (and UK for that matter) have been insistent on that SW dip, without fail, for at least 5 or 6 consecutive runs. It ultimately seems to be the difference maker between them and the GFS. We'll see by the end of the week if that dip materializes.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/edvalleewx/status/780748517094658048

[northjaxpro]

I have not have not posted muchduring the evolution of 97L or likely future Matthew. I like the rest you are following very closely.

It is just too far out today make projections on where this cyclone will be out 8-10 days from now. There are so many variables in play for so many people. I really pray people are monitoring the situation and getting prepared down in the Caribbean region. I am very, very concerned all down there, especially Hispaniola, Jamaica, Cayman Islands and Cuba.

I will only say this for now in that if this tropical cyclone finds a way to trek south of Hispaniola and past 75 degrees Longitude down the road, for me , it could make for the worst case possible scenario across the Caribbean.

If the cyclone.makes it past 75 degrees.before making a poleward move, then again we watch for possible U.S. impacts during the start of next week. Very anxious days ahead for sure tracking this potential poeerful cyclone.

[chaser1]

I have not have not posted muchduring the evolution of 97L or likely future Matthew. I like the rest you are following very closely.

It is just too far out today make projections on where this cyclone will be out 8-10 days from now. There are so many variables in play for so many people. I really pray people are monitoring the situation and getting prepared down in the Caribbean region. I am very, very concerned all down there, especially Hispaniola, Jamaica, Cayman Islands and Cuba.

I will only say this for now in that if this tropical cyclone finds a way to trek south of Hispaniola and past 75 degrees Longitude down the road, for me , it could make for the worst case possible scenario across the Caribbean.

If the cyclone.makes it past 75 degrees.before making a poleward move, then again we watch for possible U.S. impacts during the start of next week. Very anxious days ahead for sure tracking this potential poeerful cyclone.

Well, not wishing this on anyone but earily seeming like Hurricane' David's nasty brother (who happens to live a few blocks WEST), may come a 'knocking. Jax, I think there's a pretty fair chance that -"this bud's for you" So much here will likely be dependant on this system's rate of organization and deepening. Whether or not 97L will truly track as far south as the EURO and UK would suggest might go a long way toward pushing the worst threat to the west of Haiti. Scary to consider the RI potential beyond that point though.

[ConvergenceZone]

Now that the models keep trending West, and the increasing chance that this won't go out to sea, this board is about to get crazy busy again