ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Gustywind]

The Buoy out there well East of the Lesser Antilles is seeing Tropical Storm force gusts this morning to near 40mph. I think this is already a TD and could easily be a TS by time Recon gets out there.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41040

You may be right. Looks like with my untrained eyes that sustained winds reached 33 kts while gusts close to 40 kts.

Yes, 1min was 33kts and gusts to 41knts

no problem my friend.

[Bocadude85]

NHC initialized it at 11.3N/52.5W at 12Z, which looks about 1 deg too far south. I certainly think it's at least a depression now. Perhaps an upgrade by 15Z? A potential threat to the East U.S. Coast, but not anytime soon.

Are you still thinking about a 20% threat?

Afraid not. Maybe closer to 50% now. I'm thinking Mid Atlantic Coast to New England, though, not as much Florida. I'll be heading your way (Orlando) for vacation on Oct. 10-14. Don't want any storm there!

Everyone along the East U.S. Coast needs to keep a close eye on this storm.

Im leaving for vacation October 8th, keep this away from S.Fla. Glad to hear your thinking the threat is further north.

[tolakram]

visible loops

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=13&lon=-54&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=8&mapcolor=gray&map=county

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20NHE&lat=17&lon=-54&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=600&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=8&mapcolor=yellow

[TheStormExpert]

I don't know how anyone can be that certain this far out that Florida is out of the woods.

Florida is more likely to get hit by a tropical cyclone in October over any other U.S. State for one, for two the models have been trending west again over the past 24hrs. which would result in more gradual development of 97L/Future Matthew. Could a another Eastward shift in the models be in the cards?

[centuryv58]

I don't know how anyone can be that certain this far out that Florida is out of the woods.

Florida is more likely to get hit by a tropical cyclone in October over any other U.S. State for one, for two the models have been trending west again over the past 24hrs. which would result in more gradual development of 97L/Future Matthew. Could a another Eastward shift in the models be in the cards?

Excellent point. The trends are towards FL.

[TheStormExpert]

I don't know how anyone can be that certain this far out that Florida is out of the woods.

Florida is more likely to get hit by a tropical cyclone in October over any other U.S. State for one, for two the models have been trending west again over the past 24hrs. which would result in more gradual development of 97L/Future Matthew. Could a another Eastward shift in the models be in the cards?

Excellent point. The trends are towards FL.

But I also wouldn't rule out the chance of the models swinging East again.

[TheStormExpert]

If the NHC were to upgrade 97L later today I'm very curious to see what the track would look like, any guesses? I'm fully aware that they tend to closely follow the consensus model the TVCN.

[Bocadude85]

I don't know how anyone can be that certain this far out that Florida is out of the woods.

Florida is more likely to get hit by a tropical cyclone in October over any other U.S. State for one, for two the models have been trending west again over the past 24hrs. which would result in more gradual development of 97L/Future Matthew. Could a another Eastward shift in the models be in the cards?

Excellent point. The trends are towards FL.

But I also wouldn't rule out the chance of the models swinging East again.

I would think the models will continue to shift around.. I would not be surprised at all to see the 12Z Euro shift east a little bit.

[centuryv58]

Excellent point. The trends are towards FL.

But I also wouldn't rule out the chance of the models swinging East again.

I would think the models will continue to shift around.. I would not be surprised at all to see the 12Z Euro shift east a little bit.

I think that would be very surprising, but no way to tell now.
.

[northjaxpro]

I too am amazed why people are so quick to rule out any areas this far out. There are so many variables in play and the pattern in the long tange is so complex. There are going to be many more changes in the days to come with the models.

The only likelihood we know within the next 5 days is that a potentially strong tropical cyclone is going to seriously threaten areas in the Caribbean. Going out past this timeframe is just sticking your neck out guessing where the cyclone is going.

It makes for interesting model watching for sure. I am going by my rule of thumb of not looking beyond five days trusting the models.

[gatorcane]

If the NHC were to upgrade 97L later today I'm very curious to see what the track would look like, any guesses? I'm fully aware that they tend to closely follow the consensus model the TVCN.

The track only goes out 5 days and so probably a bit of a bend WNW at the end but not a sharp turn like the GFS wants to do on day 5. Keep in mind the ECMWF and UKMET have this moving south of west days 3 through 5.

Basically I would be shocked if they show any kind of turn north at all on their first track package.

[tolakram]

If the NHC were to upgrade 97L later today I'm very curious to see what the track would look like, any guesses? I'm fully aware that they tend to closely follow the consensus model the TVCN.

I would guess a track somewhat south of due west and then slowing dramatically down with maybe a slight turn north. The first 4 days are not that bad, it's day 5 on where things start to get out of hand.

[RL3AO]

If the NHC were to upgrade 97L later today I'm very curious to see what the track would look like, any guesses? I'm fully aware that they tend to closely follow the consensus model the TVCN.

First four days is pretty simple (maybe not with intensity). Then probably a slow down for day 5 and that buys them six more hours.

[jlauderdal]

If the NHC were to upgrade 97L later today I'm very curious to see what the track would look like, any guesses? I'm fully aware that they tend to closely follow the consensus model the TVCN.

definitely consensus..remember they are only are going out 5 days on the track and intensity

[Bocadude85]

But I also wouldn't rule out the chance of the models swinging East again.

I would think the models will continue to shift around.. I would not be surprised at all to see the 12Z Euro shift east a little bit.

I think that would be very surprising, but no way to tell now.
.

My biggest problems with the models is that the 240 hour position of the lastest EURO & GFS is over 1000 miles apart. One of these models is going to be horribly wrong... Im not sure which one it will be, but one would think that we need to see these two models come to a better agreement before we can really come to any conclusions on a potential USA threat.

[GCANE]

May get a small shot of low-level dry air as it passes the islands.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

[gatorcane]

Here it comes folks, surprised this board doesn't have more traffic given the model trends...

[tolakram]

My biggest problems with the models is that the 240 hour position of the lastest EURO & GFS is over 1000 miles apart. One of these models is going to be horribly wrong... Im not sure which one it will be, but one would think that we need to see these two models come to a better agreement before we can really come to any conclusions on a potential USA threat.

Sorry to pick on you here, it's meant more of a discussion, but why on earth even look at the 240? We know for a fact the verification at this range is extremely low, especially for a single feature. I think it's usable to try and get some information on overall patterns but for a tropical system, to see much past 120/144 hours as more than entertainment is folly. In my opinion, of course. AS models improve you might add another day to the dependable range but it will be a long long time before 240 is accurate.

One other thought. We know globals are pretty bad at estimating intensity, so if the intensity of a storm will be a driving factor in the track then a model can make a much bigger mistake than usual if it gets the intensity wrong. It might nail the upper air environment in 5 days but still fail in predicting the location of a tropical storm.

[gatorcane]

Look at the shear that awaits future Matthew - yes the shear will move further west and there will be an anticyclone but 97L is moving very fast and I just can't see the GFS prediction of this blowing up into a major hurricane and turning sharply north with the 200MB flow in the Central Caribbean verifying. I would go more with the ECMWF/GFDL/UKMET models which are much further west and weaker than the GFS (though still show a hurricane in the Central Caribbean). Significant intensification may need to wait until the West-Central Caribbean.

[GeneratorPower]

Here it comes folks, surprised this board doesn't have more traffic given the model trends...

Not to sound overly negative, but the board is a lot quieter than it used to be in the 2004-2006 timeframe. Lots of regulars have moved on. It probably won't be until the next major event actually hits before a new crop of enthusiasts discovers Storm2k. The model trends are definitely providing lots of suspense as to final location. Very exciting.